These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.It was suggested on Thursday, 1 Feb, that we could have a short term bottom tomorrow, i.e. on Friday, 2 Feb. However, the market refused to allow bulls who were waiting on the sidelines to enter long, and opened with a large gap. As is usual, this type of excessive bullish sentiment again brings the bulls to the profit table. And also spurs bears to short.
As of now, the bulls are still on the offensive, so I expect any selling to be absorbed quickly. The blue zone in the picture between 4130 and 4150 becomes important for the short term health of the market.
Taking a longer term view, the 4030 to 4050 range in green has made a solid base. It therefore seems unlikely, that this base is going to be violated in a hurry. This could make the bears an extinct species in the Indian markets.
We could still conclude that the longer term is intact upwards. The short term has been up also.
What do I feel, going ahead? I still feel bullish. And could use dips to buy. We could have an intermediate term top next week, maybe on Friday, 9 Feb, which is also the weekend. Till then, trade happy.
3 comments:
sirji, any particular point in trapping the bears, why do they not want ppl to short ? so that even when mkts crash, like in may, ppl just buy and are left high and dry for 6 months ??
how does such a rally generally end? and in what fibo time zones (no of trade sessions)?
reg
ketan
Look at the charts of April 92 (Harshad Mehta exuberance), April 93 (end of pessimism), Feb 2000 (Ketan Parekh exuberance), April 2003 (end of pessimism), Jan 2004 (end of optimism), May 2004 (end of pessimism), and you will know.
Dusant
sirji, if u can link them below bullish and bearish setup links, for benefit of all, nothing like it !
for eg, i started trading on 28 feb 2004, so i dont have data before that !
i think all of us will benefit from ur studies and wisdom.
reg
ketan
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