Nifty for 01 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested, we did see a sharp spurt up due to short covering. Even though we see intraday swings of 3 to 5% the trend is still undecided.

The tops of ~5400 still hold. However, the bulls will take heart with the higher bottoms too.

Short term traders could buy on dips with a strict stop at the previous swing low of ~5100. Longer term traders could do well to wait for the previous swing top of ~5400 to be broken on the upside. That would exhibit enough strength in the market. After that is broken, then we could buy on dips.

Till then, it is better to stay out.

Nifty for 31 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There is absolutely no change in the observations of yesterday. The earlier short term top is marked as the attacking point for the bears.

We had seen good profit booking coming along the ~5400 levels. The previous swing bottom ~5070 could be closely watched for weakness. If that holds, then we could continue to buy on dips.

The market was showing volatility mixed with mild strength overall till yesterday. Today the scene seems to have changed.

Therefore, we could now wait for buying. Stop losses may be strictly adhered to, to preserve capital. Please do not forget the fact that tomorrow is the weekend, and we may see a sharp spurt up, due to short covering.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 30 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The earlier short term top is marked as the doubt level on the chart.

There is no change from the observations of yesterday. We see good profit booking coming along the ~5400 levels. The previous swing bottom ~5070 could be closely watched for weakness. If that holds, then we could continue to buy on dips.

The market is showing volatility mixed with mild strength overall. In that case, dips may be bought into. Stop losses may be strictly adhered to, to preserve capital.

We have a cycle in time falling tomorrow, that is on 31 January. We could see the Nifty making a short term bottom.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 29 Jan 08 Another Update

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The charts alongside are of the crashes in the Indian market and how the Nifty future reacted to it. The first chart is of May 2004.

The second is of January 2007.

The similarities cannot be ruled out. The May 2004 chart shows how long the market had to wait, till the negative sentiment was negated. On the other hand, we see the same thing happening in a very short time in Jan 2007.

It is assumed that the "doubtful" region shown in my earlier post, would be broken on the upside. Of course, corrections cannot be ruled out. However, if the 5400 level is indeed broken with good volumes and stays above it, we could be looking at heady bullish days.

That does not mean we neglect our stops. Stop losses have preserved capital and locked in profits for us on hundreds of occasions. Give the market the respect it deserves.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 29 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From an intraday view, we had another hugely volatile day. From the end-of-day perspective, it was a nothing day.

The earlier short term top is placing doubts in minds of traders and we see good profit booking coming along the ~5400 levels. Therefore from a short term view point, the swing bottom of yesterday ~5225 could have significance. That is because we have seen good buying coming along at that level.

The previous swing bottom ~5070 could be closely watched for weakness. If that holds, then we could continue to buy on dips.

The market is showing mild strength overall. In that case, dips may be bought into.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 28 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Yesterday it was suggested that we may see another downside. As was also suggested, we are witnessing huge intraday volatility.

There was a large downside opening gap, and an equally sharp upward retracement. So far the previous bottom seems to be holding.

In such a scenario, we could use dips to buy.

Slightly longer term traders could now watch 5080, and long term traders could monitor the previous bottom ~5000.

Nifty for 25 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The indices continue in the short term bullish pattern. For those among us who have bought, the previous bottom of 5000 becomes important.

As far as the pattern goes, it seems that the rise from ~4450 to 5400 is the upwards correction for the ~1900 points fall in just a fortnight. Therefore, in all probability, we may have another short term down swing. It is also anticipated that the severity of the next downswing may not be as intense as the last week’s.

In such a case, we could use dips to buy.

Slightly longer term traders could continue to keenly watch 4890, and long term traders could monitor the last frontier 4448. I know that the ranges are large, but then it is not everyday, that the indices make a ~10% drop or a ~5% recovery.

Trade happy after planning your trade.