Nifty for 01 Dec 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Bull Run remains intact. A new high has been maintained.

A convincing support now lies at the support zone marked out on the chart. The breakout was tested on the resistance zone and has successfully maintained its upward move.

This break also has more significance, because it has occurred on a weekend. Normally, on weekends, traders close their positions. This suggests that bears are still on the back foot, and this move is re-enforcing the might of the bulls.
According to the short term triangle break, we can expect a target of 4120.

Let us see how the next week pans out.

Nifty for 30 Nov 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
As expected, bears did take a beating, but exactly at the eleventh hour of the expiration.
I have raised my mental stop for the Nifty at 3918, which level saw support. I expect the Nifty to test 3974 level mildly, and then react downward again. 3980 could be a good level where we may see short term resistance.
This is not a suggestion to short at 3980, only a suggestion to monitor that level. If that level is achieved, then a higher top would have been made, and would allow the bull run to be intact.

Nifty for 28 Nov 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As warned yesterday, we did see some weakness in the index. Unfortunately, many people could not have taken advantage of it, because of the huge 30 point gap down open. At such a stage, a trader is always in two minds, whether or not the weakness will sustain or not.

In any case, the weakness could persist just for a couple of days, and I find support levels for the Nifty at 3913, 3880 and 3855. These levels would be monitored on a daily basis, as they are dynamic, and change with additional market information.

I would change my bullish view only if the previous bottom of 3794 is violated convincingly. Therefore, bears among us could please exercise caution.

Those among us who have exit long positions, could re-enter at lower levels, once any of these support zones exhibit a convincing bounce.

Nifty for 27 Nov 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
It has been quite a while since my last post, well, a shade over two weeks. The Nifty has not done anything which was not expected. Still I wonder how many people have made money in this last fortnight.
In a capsule, the previous historic high has been tested and violated. The expected target was achieved, and has been broken. The last deep correction was a shakeout of the bulls, where the previous top was retested.
Since then, all the patterns are still suggesting of good times to come for the bulls. I have yet to see a mad euphoric blow off rise on the index. This is good for the bull. He can still take advantage of the further expected rise.
We have still not seen a meaningful correction for the last rise, in terms of price. Please keep in mind that a correction does not necessarily need to be in price, but can also been in time.
What do I expect? There could be another foray by the bears this settlement expiry, which could be used by amateurs as an excuse to short. This shorting could cost them dearly, as the bulls still seem extremely strong.
By following the Fibonacci extensions, the next logical target for the Nifty Index falls at 4170.
Will it or won’t it? Let us see.
Till then, trade unemotionally, and keep happy.