Nifty for 02 Aug 07

I have been pretty tied up the last days. But for whatever it is worth, here are the charts for the 1st and 2nd August.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next two days could be the moment of truth. These 100 points on the Nifty could decide the ultimate fate of the Nifty for the short term. So far we have had a classic buying setup, where there was a sharp news related dip, two higher bottoms, and subsequently, a higher top.

Normally, when the market brushes aside substantial news, it suggests strength. It also suggests that the market does not want prices to go lower, as it would mean putting in a lot of effort to rise again.

I am stating this due to a very simple fact. The market buys today, in the hope of selling later at higher prices. To buy, it needs a lot of money, and hence, a lot of effort. Selling is easy. We do not need any money to sell. That is the reason why we see that the market moves up slowly, but moves down very quickly.

So far, there is no evidence to suggest that the market has sold whatever it has bought earlier. That is the reason which leads me to believe that last week was not a major top. But it does not matter what I believe or don’t. What matters is that we keep our trading plan in place, and trade according to the plan.

We now have had a scenario of higher tops and subsequent dips, which have made higher bottoms. This suggests that we may see even higher price levels.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Of course, the last bottom of 4403 is significant, so stops may be placed at 4400.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that “we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.” The low for the Nifty was 4403. After that, it has indeed made a higher short term top. It was not a very convincing move. This makes the short term bottom of 4403 significant.

We have had a scenario of a higher top and a subsequent dip. High risk individuals could use this dip to buy. They could place their stops at 4400, for safety.

The Nifty has also rested on a short term support line, which adds to the importance of the bottom of 4403.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of yesterday … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on my blog, http://dusant.blogspot.com/.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I shudder to think of the effects this huge gap down fall would have on the accounts of highly leveraged traders.

After today’s price action, it becomes really difficult to take a directional call on the market. In fact, as mentioned yesterday, i.e. Thursday, “We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.” It is practically impossible to foresee a 200 odd point fall in a single day.

On Thursday, the market sidelined the bears. And today it has practically sidelined the bulls. It was mentioned yesterday, “As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.” However, today was not profit booking, but a panicked knee jerk reaction to the global cues.

My stop has been triggered, and would prefer to stay out for the moment. As I have stated earlier, the long term trend seems to still be up, and it is not suggested to have bearish thoughts.

With the fresh inputs available after Friday, it is normally observed that if a potential target is achieved in one day, we could look at lower levels. Considering the various levels between the low of 12 June 07, and the high of 24 July 07, we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.

From a longer term perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on the links on the right side of this page.

Plan your trades and trade happy.