Nifty for 21 Dec 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Nothing seems to have changed since yesterday. Except for the volatility. The Nifty is struggling with the resistances overhead. At the same time, it is also receiving good support.

There should have been enough strength today, which should have allowed the Nifty to break its shackles. However, it has failed.

Therefore, please expect a downside. This downside could again retest the 3650 levels, and in all probability, it could also be penetrated. This could turn out to be a classic bear trap.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Dec 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the chart of today, it already seems that the bad news of yesterday has been discounted, and the market is readying to make another surge upward.

On the chart, I have marked out the few operative congestion zones established during the last few days. These levels are now going to play a major role in the market movement.

If I am asked to stick my neck out, I would think that the market has made a corrective bottom here, and the trend should resume towards its original direction, that is upwards.

This is assumed by the continuous bounces, not only on the Nifty, but also on the CNXIT and Bank Nifty Futures.

All said and done, in volatile times, it is always advisable to hedge positions rather than being naked long. But those among us who are adventurous, could try their hand at bottom fishing.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Dec 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, we could see some blood letting on the bourses. And it seems to have happened. The fundamental reason could be the news that Iran wants to shift its trading and reserves to the Euro, instead of the Dollar.

In such a scenario, hedge funds would want to withdraw from uncertainties and speculate on the currencies. This could be a reason why such a sudden fall has happened.

Normally, when such an event happens, the market usually recovers after a gap of a week to a fortnight.

However, we are concerned only about the technicals. And the technicals suggest that the short term trend is down in the longer term uptrend. The lower tops and bottoms do suggest that.

The 3970 zone was not tested at all, as a result of which, we saw a sharp downside. Neither did the 3900 and 3850 levels provide support. So we could assume the trend to be down. In such a scenario, any upsides could be capped by additional selling at higher levels.

A trading plan would be extremely useful at this juncture.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Dec 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty is at a very interesting juncture. The last move up does seem like a correction to the previous fall.

It therefore becomes imperative that we approach this market with a strict view without any scope for complacency. I have marked out several zones on the chart which could be used as placing stops or buying zones, depending on the traders’ time horizon.

The 3970 zone could be tested, and then we may see some downside. If the 3900 and 3850 levels provide support, then we can assume that the trend will continue up. Or else, we could see some bloodshed on the bourses.

Trade happy.