Nifty for 5 Oct 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am human, and I was positively exultant when the market opened with a gap up. However, after I sit back and look at the chart at the end of the day, I need to plan my day ahead.

Stepping back a little, we must take note of the fact that the Nifty has run into the resistance zone. The probability is extremely high that the Index would indeed continue its upward journey. But we must be prepared for any eventuality. A stop for longs could be placed slightly below the low of yesterday.

Those among us, who are short, could wait for the marked out level, where most of the stops are going to be bunched together. However, I would not suggest readers to be short, as the Nifty has made a short term bottom, which is much higher than yesterday's low.

Prepare the fireworks for Diwali.

Nifty for 4 Oct 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I have received many congratulatory messages both on the forums which I post on, and also in my mailbox.

Also, many messages have asked me what we should do next. For all those messages, I would thank each individual for their very kind words. Also through this medium, I would like to re-iterate that I am not in the habit of giving specific stock recommendations.

Also … I would like to caution bottom fishers not to get carried away by the “accuracy” of my projected levels.

All you need to do is to allow the market to tell you that it has indeed bottomed. Allow a higher bottom – higher top to be established, and then only go long.
If you ask me what my personal gut feel is? Yes, the Nifty should resume its upward trend from tomorrow onwards. All said and done, I am only a human being, and I could be mistaken.

Nifty as on 3 Oct 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty has at last taken a breather. Which was expected. My stop for long has been triggered. Even so, the relevance of the short term support level is reinforced by the number of times that the Nifty has managed to claw back from lower levels. I am expecting this short term move to touch the 3530 levels. Normally, these short term technical levels are overshot mildly. Therefore, a level of 3515 would be a good level to watch out for. I am preparing to go long tomorrow or the day after, if and when I see the Nifty take support there.

Taking a look at individual stocks, we do not find any panic selling, and a mixed behaviour in some sectors. Which leads us to believe that there is going to be some sector churn leading up to the quarterly results.

It is at times like this, that some extra caution needs to be exercised.

Nifty as on 29 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
The Nifty is still making a steady upward pattern. Normally, on a short term scale, this pattern is considered extremely bullish, but not so after a steady rise.
There is not much more to add from Thursday's analysis. I still remain long. I had actually expected that my stop would be triggered. I was actually surprised that it was not. And from the pattern, the market is showing, it could go anyway.
I repeat, the market is not yet giving any signs of weakness, so why buck the trend and go short. Only die hard gamblers would attempt shorts at this point. Let the Nifty confirm weakness with a lower top and bottom, and shorting would be less riskier.