A posting after the fact - Nifty for 14 and 15 March 07

Dear readers,

I have been extremly tied up for the last few days and hence, could not post here.

Here are my musings, as if I would have written exactly as I saw the charts on 14 and 15 March 2007.

Nifty for 14 March 2007
These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As per our earlier estimate, we had expected the short term trend to remain weak (not meaning down) till 15 March. And tomorrow, it is quite possible that we may see a short term bottom. The blue circle could allow us to witness a short term support.

A significant level has been tested today, which has earlier long term resistances and supports. Further, we see historical gaps at these very levels. As of now, the short term trend is still up, the intermediate trend is still trying to turn up, and the long term trend is still up.

Yesterday, I had made an error in this statement … “The 3684 level is still exerting its influence on the tops and the 3685 level on the down side.” The sentence should read as … “The 3784 level is still exerting its influence on the tops … ” … As of now, the situation still seems a buy
on dips, so readers could draw up their trading plans accordingly.

Some people have asked me how can we trade a market where we have a 100 point gap down or up, and how stops can be implemented.

The answer is simple, at times of upheaval, it is always prudent to be hedged, rather than having naked positions. The profits may be limited in hedged positions, but the capital losses are severely restricted in times of disaster.

This brings us back to our motto; Trade happy. It allows for lesser mistakes.

Nifty for 14 March 2007
These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There seems no change from yesterday. The green line still seems like acting as a magnet.

15 March has come. We now need to observe whether or not see a short term bottom. The blue circle could allow us to witness a short term support. Allow the market to confirm it, before taking any hasty steps.

The previous long term peak is also a significant level, so we may see a hitch at that level.

Trade happy. It allows for lesser mistakes.

Nifty for 16 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Normally, when we see a decisive bottom in the market, we see the price making upward gaps rather than downward gaps. As of Friday, we still observe a higher bottom. Therefore, we could conclude that we could see a short term recovery leading into 21 or 22 March. It needs to be seen how strong the recovery is.

However, unfortunately, the banks are still showing considerable weakness, and as such could be a drag on the Nifty. In such a case, I do not expect much strength in the recovery.

We could witness concentrated selling next week, which may allow the Nifty to attract short selling. Therefore, it is suggested that we could wait for more opportune buying opportunities if we are longer term traders. Short term traders could take a fling at buying for a few days.

As a watch word, since the intermediate trend is sideways, hedging could be adopted to avoid disastrous price moves.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As of now, the biggest factor which seems to be influencing the market is the May 2006 top of 3774. That is why I think we see the Nifty bouncing off and on that particular level.

As of now, the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is trying to turn up, and the long term trend is still up.

The 3684 level is still exerting its influence on the tops and the 3685 level on the down side. As of now, the situation still seems a buy on dips, so readers could draw up their trading plans accordingly.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On Friday, it was stated … “It will be interesting to see what the market does on 15, 21 and 31 March.” And here is what I expect. Leading in to 15 March, I expect the short term weakness to continue, and from then on, we could see the Index making a short term top between 21 to 23, and a higher bottom on 31 March.

As of now, the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is down, and the long term trend is still up.

This type of situation always scares traders to make mistakes and give money to the sharks. None of the sharks would probably be reading this blog, so I can safely make this statement, act like minnows, and satisfy yourself on the left-overs of the sharks.

Trading is an individual things, and everyone positions her(him)self according to her(his) time frame. Therefore, please buy according to your suitable temperament.

The 3684 and 3802 levels now gain significance, as is marked on the chart.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 09 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart of today has nothing to do with Elliott or Gann, or any other method of analysis except common sense. Point No 1 faced resistance at a rising trendline, which has been tested historically. Point No 2 got support at a similar trendline. Point No 3 faced resistance which was very close to a pre-determined level of 3802, which we have been carrying for days. Point No 4 took support, also at a pre-determined level of 3685.

Point No 3 is higher than Point No 1. Point No 4 is higher than point No 2. So what does it tell us? It tells us that the market is seeking higher levels. For the time being, it may be suggested that we forget the coloured lines, as we seem to be in a fresh up move. This fresh up move will be valid as long as the Nifty does not go below 3569. Till then we may assume that the short term trend is up.

It will be interesting to see what the market does on 15, 21 and 31 March.

And as I am fond of saying, trade happy.