Nifty for 07 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It does seem that my anticipation for the market turned out horribly wrong.

The previous intermediate bottom has been broken with a gap. This is not a good sign for bulls.

It does seem now that the market may test the previous bottom of 4450. Whether it does or not, remains to be seen.

One thing is sure. The market is not trending either upwards or downwards, from the intermediate term perspective. It has been sideways. The short term trend is down, of course. The long term trend is still up.

However, the long term trend also looks in danger of turning down. It could be prudent to hedge at this stage.

The longer lower shadow of today may be attributed to weekend short covering, and may not be significant, unless we have strong follow up buying on Monday.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 05 Mar 08

Wish all readers a very pious Mahashivratri.

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

So far so good for the Index. The ~4800 level has still not been violated as yet. In fact, due to the mid week holiday, we could probably see listless trading, even on Friday.

If indeed this bottom of 4th holds, we could be back on bullish track.

This is both from the price and time view.

However, as mentioned yesterday, we are still not out of the bear woods. There are many strong resistances built up over the last two trading months, which would be exerting their influence. The first major level would be the black box zone ~5400-5450.

The previous bottom of around 4450 is still alive, which is circled in blue.

Volatility could remain increased all through this month.

If we have gutsy bottom fishers, this could be an appropriate time to get into the act. As is always prudent, stops must strictly be adhered to and small losses cut ruthlessly, before they become unmanageable.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 04 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We have reached precariously close to the ~4800 level which could give us a hint of the intermediate term trend.

In fact, tomorrow, i.e. 5 March 2008, we come across a major cycle in time, from a long term perspective. In all probability, we could see the index bottoming either today or on 5th.

If indeed it does form a short term bottom, bulls would indeed be relieved. However, it is not that we are our of the bear woods. There are many strong resistances built up over the last two trading months, which would be exerting their influence. The first major level would be the black box zone ~5400-5450.

The previous bottom of around 4450 is still alive, which is circled in blue.

Volatility could remain increased all through this month.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 03 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The trailing stop at 5090, which was suggested for short term traders, would have exited them from the market.

The short term trend has turned sharply down. However, the intermediate term trend has still retained some semblance of bullishness while being flat. Intermediate term traders are also cautioned that this is not an invitation to buy. For the intermediate term trend to turn down, we should monitor ~4800.

With such a sharp fall, it is expected that we may have some sort of short covering, which would allow partial recovery. However, this partial recovery could be viewed by bigger bears as an opportunity to short, and we may see selling at higher levels.

A word of caution. It is assumed that readers of these musings are small traders, who do not have a large capital base. Therefore, smaller traders are not suggested to short either, unless they are looking for scalping trades.

As had been suggested earlier, there are many clusters of cycles in time, which could allow volatility to increase all through this month.

Trade happy after planning your trade.