Nifty for 25 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With the derivatives out of the way, the market came back on its track. The market does seem to be topping out for the short term. There are evident signs of profit booking. The profit booking is not as intense to turn the mood bearish. It is just plain profit booking.

As mentioned a few days back, if the Index does not violate 4971 on the downside, we could see a sizeable and extended bull run.

This expected correction may touch around the 4860 levels and that could be a good re-entry point. In such a case, stops may be retained at 4628.

At the beginning of this month, it was mentioned that the whole month of April could be a period of consolidation with relatively lesser volatility and steady trending. The market has indeed behaved true to book. In such a case, we see a cycle in time falling on 1 May 08. Since that date is a holiday, we could see the final signs of profit booking next week.

How deep down would it take the market? That remains to be seen. In any case, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 24 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am really satisfied that readers of my musings could have protected themselves from the vagaries of the market.

As expected, the market was mildly weak, and volatile.

If the market is behaving as expected, then we could anticipate it to behave as we analyse it, in the future too.

I expect it to take real support around the 4860 levels around the end of this month, and then take its journey upwards. It could also be possible that it could take support at a higher level. In such a case, I would suggest alertness to be able to join the party when it just starts.

And as always suggested, keep our stops strict and intact.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, the Nifty seems to be topping out for the short term. The levels of the previous short term tops would not now into play, and could provide support.

From the longer term perspective, if the Nifty does not violate the previous swing high of 4971, then we could see much greater glory for the Nifty. If it does violate 4971, then it is expected that the rise may not be as rapid.

Now, a point which I want to forcefully make. These are my judgements based on the previous chart history. I could be wrong, and the market could turn bearish. In such a case, only trailing stops can protect our trades. Therefore, it is strongly suggested to keep trailing stops as each trader’s comfort level would dictate. So far there is no hint that the market could be bearish.

Tomorrow is the end of the derivatives cycle, which could contribute to some intraday volatility. Day traders could well stay away.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 22 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.



It has been a long time since I last wrote, but it really does not matter, as the market has been bullish as expected and the hedged positions could have been removed.

Carrying on from the last post, people may ask me … am I a wholesale bull. I would answer that with an unqualified yes.

From the way the last fortnight has shaped out it does seem that my suggestions of last fortnight are standing good. If things happen according to plan, then we may see a pause for this leg at around ~5440 levels. This coincides with the big black box which is looming overhead. Will the Nifty have enough strength to break through? That remains to be seen.

For the short term, the Nifty seems to be topping out presently, and we may have a few mild downside corrections. But the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.

As a bonus for the long absence, I give the suggested levels which traders could monitor either for profit booking or for supports.
5131~5182
5281
5441

Trade happy after planning your trade.