Nifty for 31 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been quite some time since I last posted. In my last post, it was suggested the market could make a short term top due to the cluster of time cycle between 13 to 16 December. It did.

It was also suggested that an up and down roller coaster could continue till 21 December. It did.

Also, as was suggested, that the “warehousing fever” could start around the last week of this month. It did.

It is reward enough for this humble analyst that readers could have made opportune exits and then re-entries based on my earlier suggestions. Looking ahead, the market is pausing at a previous target which provided resistance earlier too.

The market is now poised delicately. It does seem that the previous top will be broken. How far will it break? This time I do not anticipate a large margin. The anticipated level it could achieve is 6245. After that we could see a correction. Be on guard.

Have a good year ahead. Not a greedy one.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 13 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we are approaching a cluster of time cycle between 13 to 16 December. It does seem that the market has made a short term top today.

This up and down roller coaster could continue till 21 December.

From a trading perspective, the trailing stop is marked out on the chart. This could be used by readers to lock in profits. This is not an invitation to short. As was suggested some time earlier, let us learn to trade with the trend. Normally at this time of the year, the big players are planning on taking their Christmas vacation.

This leaves markets all over the world, vulnerable to manipulation on small volumes. Therefore, it may be advisable to sit on the sidelines till the “warehousing” fever starts, where our local players begin to accumulate stocks in the anticipation that the FIIs would start their activities after the New Year.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 12 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, there was some panic buttons hit on the open, with a gap down opening. However, the market was resilient enough to recover right from the word go, and has hit a short term objective which we have been seeing on my charts for a long time.

When a mathematical objective is achieved, it is logical to seek the next probable objective. That falls around the 6400 to 6450 levels. The time cycle of 13 to 16 December is just around the corner. Therefore, we as traders should remain on guard for some volatility.

Maybe … the market may make a short term top around these dates.

The Nifty still does not seem to have peaked. We could retain our long term bullish outlook, and it may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 11 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested precisely a week back that the market is waiting for the news based event viz. the expected rate cut in the USA. And during this week, the market is playing itself out, discounting the expected event. When the news comes in, we can expect one of two things.

The rate cut happens.

The rate cut does not happen.

If the rate cut happens, the market has already expected it and has already factored that expectation in the price. In that case, it will be business as usual. We can expect some profit booking to the “expected” news.

However, if it does not happen, then we can expect some panic buttons to be hit. In such a scenario, it is always advisable to keep tight stops.

It was also suggested last week that …. “we have a short term time cycle falling tomorrow i.e. 5 December. A longer term cycle falls between 13 and 16 December. Let us wait and watch and see what the Index does on these days”.

Maybe … the market may make a short term top around these dates.

The last word. The Nifty still does not seem to have peaked. In such a case, we could retain our long term bullish outlook, and it may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 04 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Not much needs to be said of yesterday’s chart. It has broken out from the yellow zone.

It is a sign of bullishness which we have discussed since a fortnight.

Today the Nifty has showed some hesitation at a psychological level which was an earlier target level. The market is hesitating for a very simple news driven event. The rate cut to be announced on 11 December in the USA.

Till then, it is expected that the market could meander a little aimlessly. In any case, the direction is expected to remain upwards. For bullish positions, the trading stop could be suggested at 5600. However, the yellow zone which has been applying resistance earlier could be expected to give a short term support. And may be pierced slightly on the downside.

There is speculation also that the BIG players are buying the Nifty futures and selling stocks. Ultimately, it all boils down to one thing. The tail can wag the dog for a short period. In the final countdown, the dog owns the tail.

We have a short term time cycle falling tomorrow i.e. 5 December. A longer term cycle falls between 13 and 16 December. Let us wait and watch and see what the Index does on these days.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 30 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been a week since I posted on my Blog. On my last post for 23 November, it was suggested to maintain a stop at 5394. Since then, it has not achieved that level.

It was also suggested that the short term trend would be termed as up in case the Nifty moved above 5638. In such a situation, it is assumed that readers would still be comfortably long. The stop could be raised to 5596.

As can be seen on the hourly chart, the short term trend is still up. This suggests that the Nifty may achieve higher numbers and the last peak may also be violated. The yellow zone is exerting a lot of influence due to profit booking. Indeed if we just glance back at the chart, it does show that the yellow zone is a hugely significant psychological level. The odds are now favouring this zone to be broken with conviction on the upside.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On the face of it, we do see follow up buying to validate Thursday’s bounce. However, the follow up buying is not strong. It may be assumed that the FII’s were absent due to the holiday on Friday in the USA.

On the intraday charts, we saw a short term bullish pattern yesterday. Again, on the intraday charts, it has been validated. But not on the hourly chart. For the short term pattern to be validated, on Monday, the Nifty should move above 5638, and not fall below 5394.

This gives us a large range. To avoid large scale risk, traders could buy keeping the stop at 5394.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 22 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The bounce for today was strong. It needs to be validated tomorrow. In all probability, this bounce is only due to short covering. This suggests that this up move may be short lived.

However, please remember, this is only an assumption. If the Nifty continues its journey upwards and fails to violate 5390 on the downside then the short term trend would resume upwards.

On the intraday charts, we have seen a short term bullish pattern, which still needs to be validated.

There was a question, why I have not suggested going short. The simple reason is that a trader must learn to sail with the wind. It takes much lesser effort to make profits. The 5070 level was just a mathematical projection. It is not necessary that the market could achieve that level. It could stop before. Just like it has done today.

The main trend is still bullish. We see a bullish pattern on the intraday charts. We may hazard entering long positions. However, this phase is a correction in the main up trend. And as we know, any move which is counter to the trend is volatile. It is, therefore, prudent to stick to the trend.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market tanks, fast and furious, it catches traders off guard. However, readers would have been warned to take evasive action yesterday.

It was suggested yesterday that we may achieve 5070 levels on the Index. However, the small expected upside did not happen. It was one way street.

For the short term trend to change upwards, the Nifty should violate 5695 on the upside and not break 5530. It seems the short term bulls may take a short vacation till we have a convincing bullish pattern.

The main trend is still bullish. But we could wait for a bullish pattern to enter long positions.

At time like this, bottom fishers come out in droves and usually end up burning big holes in their pockets. To such potential bulls, I suggest patience, and confirmation. Allow the market to confirm before committing capital.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 20 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Contrary to what was expected, the market has gone into a volatility mode rather than breaking out. This normally happens when the market is correcting. With just a week away from derivatives expiry, this market could shake out long positions. In such an event, the Nifty could achieve the 5070 level or thereabouts.

We also see a strange phenomenon. Normally, this type of pattern does not occur at a market high. A potential head and shoulder pattern seems to be emerging on the intraday charts. For this pattern to be validated, the Nifty should not go below 5500 levels.

We could see a small upside tomorrow. However, for the short term trend to change to upwards, the Nifty should move above 5924 and not violate the bottom of 5756.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips. At times like this, it is very important to wait for a bullish pattern to emerge on the intraday charts, rather than try and jump ahead of the market. As a reminder, the example of a bullish pattern is already placed on my Blog.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 19 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the charts it is very obvious that the market is testing the resistance again … and again and again. Normally, when the market tests such a resistance several times and is unable to break it, it collapses fast and furious. However, it has not done so. In such an event, it may be surmised that the market is preparing to break out on the upward direction. And this move also could be fast and furious.

We also notice that the downside movement has not been substantial. Therefore, logically, the market should give another 500 points from this stage IF it breaks out upwards. But please remember the suggestion made last week. That of volatility.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 16 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As may be seen from the charts of this week, the Nifty is pausing at crucial levels. Whether it is on the way up or down. This suggests that the market is behaving rather well, technically.

As frequent readers of my musings would know, my method of technical analysis is not the art of making “forecasts”. I would prefer to take a look at the past movement to make an assumption for the future. However, assumptions should never replace a trading plan, and readers could maintain their plans according to their own time frames and comfort levels.

We can see that the movement for last week has been corrective in nature. Therefore, we could assume that the trend could continue upwards after this corrective phase is over.

The next fortnight has a lot of time cycle clusters, so we may witness higher volatility than normal.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty Charts for Second Week of November

The charts for this week, gone by.

Nifty for 06 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There seems to be no change from the last analysis. On the intraday chart, the Nifty seems to be consolidating. The established support range is again being tested. As a reminder, we need to remember the significance of this support range.

Short term traders could keep their trailing stop at a close just below the support range to avoid large losses.

The traded volumes during the last several trading sessions suggest that the market is very skittish. We see increasing volumes on down days. However, the price pattern on the charts does not suggest that we have seen the end of the Bull Run.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 02 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On the intraday chart, the Nifty seems to be consolidating. It has also established a fresh support range. This support range is more significant especially when the Nifty had paused thrice around those levels. Further, it had broken out of that range with a huge gap. That gap has been closed today.

The only discomfort which I can point out is that the overall traded volumes on both the exchanges were not too heavy. That could put a slight shadow of doubt on the recovery of Friday.

Other than that, nothing deters me from suggesting my anthem … buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 29 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Sidelined traders may still be rubbing their eyes in disbelief when they see a new top established by the indices. It only seems yesterday that we were looking at the near 5000 levels, and today we are almost near 6000.

The gap through the previous historic top also indicates the bullish frame of mind the market has finally come to terms with.

I really wonder how many readers would have had the guts to buy at these stratospheric levels, even though they have been reading for months on end … “buy on dips”.

That is exactly what the market is all about. When we do not have the guts to buy, the market moves up. When we finally muster up the to buy, the market is ready to shed its weight. The 5700 levels become more significant because of the fact that it has been tested several times, and has finally broken its shackles with a gap.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 24 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Another gap opening, an immediate correction and a neutral closing. The market is really going to test traders’ nerves. It is still hovering around the historical trendline. In all probability tomorrow could be a weak opening.

Our cycle in time could … just could show us an intermediate top tomorrow. As I am fond of saying, I could be wrong, and the market is the ultimate supreme, I could suggest to allow the market to tell us what is wants to do.

Short term traders could monitor 5577 on the top side and 5418 on the lower side. If either of them breaks, we could take a guess at the short term direction. However, the long term and intermediate term trends are still up, and it could be suggested to buy on dips.

A stop could be placed at 5069 for deciding the intermediate trend.

Ultimately, it all boils down to, what time frame you are looking at, and what is your risk appetite. And the final word is, trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Within a span of two days, historic and short term support and resistance lines have been tested and confirmed. How does the market know where to pause?

After today’s price action, the earlier projected levels do not seem possible now. As we can see, the short term chart has indeed made a bullish pattern. Further, the Index opened with a gap, and failed to close it on the intraday chart. This suggests that the market is indeed bullish and the correction may have been over with Monday’s low.

That brings us to our earlier trading suggestion ... to buy on dips. A stop may be retained at a close below 5070 for the next few days.

The stop must seem a large distance away. However, readers are requested to check out my musings of just last week. The links are given below.
Nifty for 17-Oct-07.
Nifty for 18-Oct-07.
Nifty for 19-Oct-07.

It was suggested that we are in a volatile stage in the market and there could be violent moves either way, as the corrective phase is the most difficult to trade. At times like this, it is also prudent to hedge trades to avoid colossal losses.

Plan your trades and be happy. After all, trading scares are all in the mind.

Nifty for 22 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a nothing day in terms of market movement. Except that a historic support was tested. Today’s session was in the nature of consolidation. That suggests that the market is uncertain of direction. In spite of doomsday “predictions” for “black” Monday the market was rather well behaved.

As of now, the projected levels still stand true. Both for time as well as price.

As was suggested on Friday, I repeat the time and price levels. As of now, ~4765 (~16178 on the BSE) seems to be on the cards. Maybe, we could see a short term bottom on our projected time cycle of 24 October.

I did get some queries about whether the Nifty would hit the 4765 level exactly on 24 October. For such queries, I re-state my philosophy. I do not have a crystal ball, and am not able to see the future. All I can suggest is to … Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market has finally cracked. This move could have the extinct bears of the Indian markets wanting to come out of hibernation. Already I am beginning to hear their grunts.

To such hopeful bears, I may give the suggestion to please go back to sleep. This correction may last for a short time. However, the market seems to be headed for a phase of high volatility, so even if short term bears do become active, it may not give them adequate opportunities. Stops would be triggered, panic buttons would be hit. The risk to reward ratio is not favourable for bears.

We may see selling at every significant rise, but that could be in the shape of smaller profit booking exits, rather than large scale bear selling.

Yes, it is true that we are correcting down. Yes, we could project some down side. But no one can pin point with certainty when the correction is over. As of now, ~4765 (~16178 on the BSE) seems to be on the cards.

Maybe, we could see a short term bottom on our projected time cycle of 24 October.

Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Wow, another violent day in the markets. At times like this, I would like to remind readers that it is not necessary to trade everyday. Your broker does not hold a pistol to your forehead, and force you to trade.

So far, the trend is still up, with a higher top higher bottom pattern. I would still continue to retain a bullish outlook. Until a close below 5120.

A corrective phase is the most difficult to trade with huge and unexpected volatility. Though I am not an Elliottician, we could be entering a phase, which could be falling in the corrective Wave 4 category. On 9 October, it was suggested that we are looking ahead to a cycle in time on 24 October. Let us see what next Wednesday has to show us.

Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Good God!!! I think I should stop making prophetic statements. Never in my wildest of dreams did I imagine that the market would open on downward circuit.

The biggest question which would arise in a trader’s mind is, what direction is the market headed? I do not have a crystal ball to gaze into the future. But all I can do is to suggest how to trade this market.

Fact One: The long term trend is up.
Fact Two: The intermediate trend is up.
Fact Three: The short term trend is down.

I would choose 5100 as a benchmark for deciding the short term trend. If the Nifty violates 5100 on the downside, then the short term trend would be labelled as continuing down. If it violates 5596 on the upside, then we may label it as a reversal of the short term trend, and may buy on dips. If it does neither, and stays between 5100 and 5596, then we may label it as a sideways movement in a short term downtrend.

I would still not suggest shorts, but then I may be foolish. I would still go with the trends. I may suggest shorts only for short term traders with a strict intraday stop at 5600.

I would buy only after a confirmation of a bullish pattern. A confirmation would mean that the Nifty moves above 5600 and does not violate 5100. That is a 500 points range … agreed. But then, the Index does not move 10 percent everyday.

Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today, the market has indeed achieved the predetermined target. It has also tried to break it, but found some resistance. In all probability, we could see some stronger resistance here. We may use this opportunity to buy on dips. The weakness which was anticipated on Monday may happen on Wednesday.

Where does a trader buy? Obviously, it depends on each person’s individual risk appetite. But always keep in mind to buy only after a confirmation of the bullish pattern.

And if the market does not correct, it is suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 15 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market seems to be in a real hurry to achieve targets. The projection mentioned on Friday has been achieved within one trading session. What more can be added except the old broken record?

Plan your trade and trade happy. It is suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

It was anticipated that we could see a weak opening but that was not to be. From the interaction I have with some traders, it does seem that bulls are getting anxious to enter the market. In such a scenario, it is always a little dangerous to buy. However, as is always suggested. Keep our stops and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 09 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today I wish I had said, I told you so. But it was not my day.

The market does not want to give up at this point in time. As observers, it tells us that it does not want bulls to enter at this point.

In any case, even after having analysed the market for over thirty seven years, I still feel amazed how the market respects certain levels. The Index bounced just from the blue line, which was an earlier price projection, and never looked back from there. Are we now looking at the ~5400 frontier?

The saving grace for is that it was suggested that last week was not the ultimate top. The market has been king to respect that observation. Yesterday, it was suggested that we could witness a cycle in time on 24 October, but from today’s behaviour, we could see a short term top on 11 October itself.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 08 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I hate to say, I told you so.

Readers are requested to just go back and read my analysis for Friday. It was repeated again and again during the whole of last week, to remain cautious with trailing stops, and I assume that those musings of mine would have been heeded.

All I can repeat at this stage is my “feeling” about the market. “I can confidently say that this short term top which could occur or already has occurred around ~5250 is not the ultimate peak.” Again, I repeat … this is my feeling … and not trading advice.

The final opportunity for bulls may just be around the corner. This may be around the 24th of this month. The suggestion to buy on dips remains, what we need to ascertain is that the Index makes a bullish pattern. The chart of the bullish pattern is there in my posting archives. Check for the link on the right side. However, I am showing the chart again for convenience.

With such a large bearish day, it is inevitable that there would be some short covering, which could allow the Index to move up. This situation normally tempts bulls to buy again. However, it is not suggested to jump in right away.

Most important, please be prepared for some huge intraday volatility with gap open moves.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 05 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a weak day. But so far, the Nifty is still displaying a consolidation pattern, without any signs of breaking down. However, we still see signs of profit booking in lower rung stocks, with the index heavyweights propping it up. Therefore, it is suggested to trade with caution in the second and third rung stocks.

The target of around 5400 is still open, and quite possible, we may not see it achieved in a hurry.

The market seems to be throwing all the “rules” out of the window as of now. All I can deduce from a longer term perspective, that there is a HUGE amount of steam left in the Indian stock market. I detest making predictions, but I can confidently say that this short term top which could occur or already has occurred around ~5250 is not the ultimate peak.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 04 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

At last the Nifty has broken its track record of making new highs everyday. As of the last two trading sessions, it seems to be a short term consolidation pattern.

I can only repeat what I mentioned yesterday. “The chart shows our next expected frontier. Will it or won’t it? No point speculating on this question. That will not earn us money.”

Today was a negative day on the Nifty, but not very significant. However, the only really negative thing which I observe is that the Nifty Futures are priced higher than the Nifty spot.

As we know, there should be a cost of carry for the Future, as the market is financing you to buy a virtual position. This should keep the Future priced higher. We have noticed that, usually, at market bottoms, the sentiment is depressed and the difference between the Cash and the Futures is high, with the Futures being lower priced. The reverse is true at market tops.

At present the difference is not much. However, this would lead to a perfect arbitrage situation, where the larger players could buy the Nifty Components and sell the Future to earn a risk free profit.

We also see a few cycles in time falling between 8 and 11 October. It seems that the attitude now should be of caution.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 03 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

How boring … another new top. Today, the Nifty moved out of two short term projections with a gap. There was expected profit booking, and a convincing recovery too.

The chart shows our next expected frontier. Will it or won’t it? No point speculating on this question. That will not earn us money. A simple strategy of keeping trailing stops has earned us another ~150 points on the Nifty.

It was suggested on Monday that the Nifty has bounced twice from our earlier blue line/green zone, which was another short term projection. It was stated that this makes the green zone a significant one. Oh well, the Nifty did respect that level, and the result is there for us to see.

Plan your trade and trade happy. It is again suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 01 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Do spend a moment remembering the twentieth century icon of non-violence.

How boring … another new top. The Nifty has almost kissed our projected black line.

It is also noticed that the Nifty has bounced twice from our earlier blue line/green zone, which was another short term projection. This makes the green zone a significant one. Keep a sharp eye out for it in later days.

Apart from that, there is not much change from yesterday. The short term trend is still up. Our strategy of raising our profit booking stops has just given us an additional half percent on the Nifty.

Plan your trade and trade happy. It is again suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 28 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There is not much change from yesterday. The target zone is still open. The minute short term trend is still up. Our strategy of raising our profit booking stops has just given us an additional few points on the Nifty.

There was a question about the long term trend of the mother of all worldwide indices – the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This monthly chart was prepared sometime about three years back, and none of the studies have been changed. The time and price nexus is still standing the test of history, and we can expect it to do so in future too.

Most traders get so caught up watching the intraday charts, that they forget there is also a longer term aspect to trading.

I have oft repeated that a miniscule minority of traders can catch the top range and the bottom range. Otherwise, the exercise of trying to predict is a luxury most traders cannot afford and should not indulge in.

Even now, the Dow is not showing a final peaked out pattern as yet. And as we all know, all is not well with the USA economy.

Similarly, we do not see a peaking pattern on the Indian indices as well. So where is the need to panic?

What more can I add except, plan your trade and trade happy. It is suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 27 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the simple strategy of keeping a trailing stop keeps us in the market, rather than to exit prematurely. It has given us more than one percent today.

As far as expiration days are concerned, today must be the tamest expiry day in a long time. No fireworks, no flashes, just a continuation of the steady uptrend. The first short term target of 5000 has been achieved today.

The target range between 5000~5100 is still open. It does seem that the historic supply line is now giving support.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage. There will be plenty of time to short later, when the market gives us a convincing signal.

Once more, I reiterate my slogan, plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

A simple strategy of keeping a trailing stop has given us an additional few points on the Nifty. For a market like this, it is again suggested not to try and catch the tops or bottoms but to keep raising stops as per our comfort levels, and allow the market to exit us, rather than to exit prematurely.

The target range between 5000~5100 is still open. It also seems that the historic supply line may now give support.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage.

Once more, I reiterate my slogan, plan your trade and trade happy. It is all in the mind.

Nifty for 25 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today's analysis is simple. It may be suggested to exit long positions on a close below 4875. This way, we do not exit prematurely, and yet are in the market, to take advantage of any possible up move.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next target also seems upon us. It is placed at around 5000. However, it does seem that even this target would be swept aside. As is normally the norm of the market, the targets are exceeded by a bit, so we may see a short term top around 5100.

This calculation is in keeping with the market movements for the last few days.

Was I wrong about the cycle in time? No. As has been often repeated, a cycle in time is just that, a projection of time. A window of a day or two may be granted, as emotions in the stock market cannot be dictated by mathematics.

At this stage, any other suggestion seems redundant; expect to keep tight stops to exit profitable positions.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage.

Nifty for 21 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all.

The cycle in time is now upon us. Monday could possibly be a short term high. The stress is on the word possibly. Could it be a major top? The odds are not in that favour. It does seem that we may have another major move up. But possibly after a correction.

As was suggested on Thursday, at this stage people would be tempted to short. To those people, all I can suggest that trying to catch tops or bottoms is a luxury which disciplined traders had better avoid. The business of trading does not earn money by “predicting” tops or bottoms. But to decide what the trend is and to take a slice of the action, by trading in the direction of the trend.

Please stay alert for a short term bearish pattern, as shown on my Blog. The link is on the right panel.

Nifty for 20 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

After a breakout is sustained, for a day, it seems logical to draw up the next mathematical target. This time it falls around 4860. Our anticipated high closing for the derivatives expiry this month has come true.

With many short term cycles coming into play, the next two trading sessions, Friday and Monday, would be important. Monday could possibly be a short term high.

At this stage people would be tempted to short. To those people, all I can suggest that trying to catch tops or bottoms is a luxury which disciplined traders had better avoid. The business of trading does not earn money by “predicting” tops or bottoms. But to decide what the trend is and to take a slice of the action, by trading in the direction of the trend.

I think that I should stop carrying my traders’ anthem, “Plan your trade, and trade happy”. People have read it so many times that they have become immune to it.

Nifty for 19 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Phew!!! Finally the market has obliged this humble analyst.

With a gap up opening through a short term target, no further analysis is necessary, except reiterating that the market is indeed bullish.

Just yesterday, it was suggested that … “In fact, we just seem to be entering the bubble stage, where the corner pan walla also becomes a stock market analyst.” Today seems the beginning of the bubble stage.

It was suggested two weeks back that we may encounter a cycle in time on 24 September. This could possibly be a short term high.

No other words seem necessary except that these humble musings may have helped some readers to make some money. Except a major word of caution. Please do not get carried away by the tidal wave. Please keep your feet firmly implanted on the ground, plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market has proved this humble analyst wrong again. It was anticipated that the 4450 level could be broken on the downside. The market has proved otherwise.

The short term trend is still up. In fact, the short term trend has reiterated its bullish behaviour today, by making a short term pivot.

There was some comment asking when we can short the market. At the risk of sounding offensive, I could suggest that the questioner must be daft, thinking of shorting the market when the trend is up. It has been suggested time and again that we could ride the trend rather than try and swim against the current. In my last 219 posts, spread over almost fifteen months, I do not remember having said at any time that the main trend is down.

In fact, we just seem to be entering the bubble stage, where the corner pan walla also becomes a stock market analyst. The market is not going to move one way. It is going to have its bad days and good days. It may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Here is what was suggested on Friday. “The probable direction is still bullish, and we may see some small downside.”

So far, the short term trend is still up. We could classify the short term trend to remain up till the yellow band of ~4450 is held up. As of now, it does seem that the 4450 level could be broken on the downside. However, it also seems that the correction may not be very deep.

The much talked about USA interest rate cut on Tuesday, seems to be spooking the market just a tiny bit. However, since the news based event is a non event on the face of it, we could just see that market brushing it aside as a non event.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.” The market has indeed showed that it is supreme, and trapped the stops of bears, who were hoping that this would be the final frontier.

It is getting very dicey for a trader here. A huge gap up opening does not allow a positive close? It is something to ponder about. What it tells us that the market is still unsure of the direction. The probable direction is still bullish, and we may see some small downside.

In such an event, it can again be suggested that any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital. A short term stop could be a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.”

It is also true that the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.

For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is violated on the upside, and if the low of 4452 is not broken on the downside, then we can expect the short term trend to change to up. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting.

The projected downside target of around 4300 now looks like a low possibility. In any case, any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As we can see, for the last few trading sessions, the Nifty has moved in a tightly coiled range of about 100 points. When a trading range of 100 points in one day is normal, the market is telling us something. It is suggesting that it does not want to move fast now, but later, when it moves, the directional move could be explosive.

With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.

The short term trend is still down. As far as deciding about the short term trend is concerned, our levels of yesterday still stand. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, and if the low of 4452 is broken on the downside, then we can expect the trend to continue down. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

The projected downside target of around 4300 still stands. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 11 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term trend is down. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, then we can expect the trend to continue down. As of now, the Nifty seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

With some simple maths, we project a downside target of around 4300. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

A sharp eye may also be kept on the coloured zones which are historical support levels. As of now, the market is just making nervous traders even more jittery. With gap up and down opens, it does not allow a normal trader to settle down comfortably.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.