Nifty for 23 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all. The steady uptrend of the last two odd months has finally been broken. This break is unhealthy for the longer term trend of the Index.

The sentiment has indeed turned sharply negative in the last two trading sessions alone. What was looking like a correction now seems to be a fresh downward move. This may allow the Nifty to move to the lower end of the short term down-sloping channel ~4850. If that is true, then our earlier check points of ~4934 and ~4923 would be violated.

It is now advisable to give up bullish hopes for some time. Wait patiently until we see a definite bull pattern, and then only take long positions. For those who are already long, it is suggested to place stops as each trader’s comfort level allows.

Last week, it was suggested that we have a cycle in time falling on 25 May 08. Let us see what this cycle brings.

We may even see panic.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the correction over? From today’s sharp retracement up, it would seem so. In any case, we had expected the correction to be mild. However, the market will soon tell us. If it violates 5050 on the downside, we may assume that the correction is still continuing. If it violates 5168 on the upside, then it is over.

Today, the low has just kissed our monitoring level of 5066 as was mentioned yesterday, and retraced dramatically. This is a point in favour of the bulls.

As on today, the probability of a mild downside move seems more. It is quite possible that the Nifty may test the ~5050 levels once again. The market has presented both the bullish and bearish scenarios.

The market sentiment is still bullish. This allows us to suggest that dips may be used to buy.

The only chink in the Nifty’s armour seems the banking sector. If we have any positive stock or sector specific news relating to the banking sector, we could see the Nifty fly.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 20 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

After a few strong bull days, it is quite natural to expect a correction due to profit booking.

As of now the sentiment remains mildly positive. This correction is expected to be mild. As of now, the technical position suggests that it may correct to the orange zone. However, the previous swing low of 4935 should be significant. Therefore, it may be expected that the Nifty could stop anywhere above that level.

However, if the Nifty remains above the previous swing top of 5066, then it will signal to us stronger days ahead for the Index.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Mahavir Jayanti

Wish all readers a pious and peaceful Mahavir Jayanti.