Nifty for 09 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was mentioned yesterday, “the orange band around the 4970~5000 should now come into play”. It has hit our target bang on. Whether the Index will hold this level or not remains to be seen. Normally, after such a sharp dip, we do see some pull back.

Therefore, we could expect Monday to test the rising blue line, and then make a move up. How strong would it be is anybody’s guess. But short term trader may take advantage of this expected up move. It also goes with without saying to keep stops intact.

This suggestion is akin to bottom fishing, and readers must be tired of hearing me … warning of the hazards of catching a falling knife with open hands.

The chart still shows a steady uptrend, as is apparent by the upwards sloping blue channel. This last down move has been rather sharp, and later we could see selling at higher levels. If we witness strong buying at higher levels, enough to counter profit booking, we could see even higher tops on the Index.

The scenario which I expect on Monday is that the Index could open with a downside gap, and then strong hands may step in to start buying, which could push the Index upwards.

Even now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. Traders with a longer term horizon could wait for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 08 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the market still is uncertain. Readers could have closed their long positions.

As of now, the market still does not seem bearish, but there is no harm to keep locking in profits and try a re-entry at a later date when the technical position is healthier.

Even now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. I would still suggest waiting for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions.

The orange band around the 4970~5000 should now come into play.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 07 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Traders could now raise their stops to 5101 which is the low for today. Long positions may be closed if the market remains uncertain.

As of now, the market does not seem bearish, but there is no harm to keep locking in profits.

As of now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. However, I would now wait for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions. The market sentiment suddenly seems to have weakened.

We could keep monitoring the market, and take a position only when the market suggests it. I always keep cautioning readers against bottom fishing.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 06 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we seem to be in a correction. Had it not been for the IT and FMCG sectors, the fall could have been worse. This sector rotation keeps the sentiment bullish from a longer term perspective. We may see an up day tomorrow and the day after, but the profit booking could drag the correction down later.

The healthier aspect of this correction is that when there is profit booking in one sector, others prop the Index. So the general mood remains buoyant.

We have had a good 28 calendar days up move for this last leg from 4 April. It means that the sentiment has been generally bullish for about one month. It is unrealistic to assume that the bullish sentiment for a month can be corrected in a day or two.

The new orange box is the level now to watch for. That is why we suggest that stops may be retained at a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 05 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Not much to change the mood. As was suggested last week, the market is still looking toppish for the short term, but is still not weak. The bulls would take heart from the fact that there still seems to be steam left in the market.

Stops may be retained at a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 02 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We did have a gap up open, as can be expected after a holiday, when the market tends to play catch up with the trend. The market does seem to be topping out for the short term. There are evident signs of profit booking. The profit booking is not as intense to turn the mood bearish. It is just plain profit booking.

As mentioned a few days back, if the Index does not violate 4971 on the downside, we could see a sizeable and extended bull run.

There seems no cause for bulls to panic. Only there seems to be sector rotation, and at times like this, we need to be a little choosy in picking stocks. Stops may be raised to a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.