Nifty for 28 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested for the whole of this week, the Nifty indeed seems to be on a sound footing now. The trend seems to be heading up now, slowly. There is no certainty in the market, or else I would have said slowly but surely.

The only apprehension I have at this stage is that volumes are not too heavy. I would have felt much more comfortable had we seen rising volumes but I assume that it is because of the P Notes issue.

These are just a few fundamental thoughts. Capital inflows do not seem as buoyant as earlier, and no fresh inflows. The news is out and known to all. So the market is reacting now purely on technicals, and has factored in this news.

Till the time this P-Note issue is weaned out of the market, the market may not react to it. Unless, of course, the Government reconsiders its decision on winding up of the P-Notes.

Long term traders may now place stops at 4460. Short term traders may monitor 4538.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 27 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was nothing much to write home about. It was a day of consolidation. After today, it may be expected that the Nifty resumes its short term trend upwards.

The levels were mentioned yesterday, so it makes no sense to repeat them.

From tomorrow onwards, it could be expected that the Nifty makes a normal move for the whole of April, without the volatility of the last two months.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 26 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The breakout from the short term downward sloping channel is still holding.

As was suggested yesterday, we may see a profit booking day after such a huge rise of yesterday. It should be encouraging for bulls that the breakout from the down sloping channel is still holding.

For tomorrow, we should monitor the ~4718 level for a possible sign of weakness. The next level would be ~4530. If that too does not hold, look for ~4470. Now for some explanations. The ~4718 level should hold in case this short term move is to sustain. If ~4530 does not hold, then we should have the alarm bells ringing. If ~4470 does not hold, then short term traders may look for the longer term trend.

And, as we have already been reading constantly, the intermediate term decider may be placed at ~4440.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 25 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

For reasons beyond my control, I could not upload this yesterday. For whatever it is worth, I am doing it today, to provide continuity to my regular readers.

Has the market surprised me? Yes I would say. It was anticipated that the up move would come around the expiration date. But it seems to have started at least two days in advance.

The market may now try and close this large gap of today, but the bulls may try and not allow that to happen. In any case, the short term bullish pattern which was suggested has occurred. Now the only condition to be fulfilled is that the previous bottom of ~4468 must not be violated.

As of now, I do not anticipate that even if this short term bullish pattern holds, it would lead to great things. We may see a good up move, but I expect the bears to regroup around the 5400 levels once again.

Once this whole cycle of news driven knee jerk reactions are out of the way, we may see a relatively smooth move for the month of April.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 24 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Bulls, keep holding your breath. The previous bottom is still holding. As suggested last week and as was anticipated, we did see a bounce, but was met with immediate selling.

I did make a mistake in my musings last week, calling Monday as tomorrow.

Again, as stated last week, I reiterate that this up move may be viewed with a little scepticism, and not much weight may be placed on today’s gap up move.

For a short term bullish pattern, the Nifty must violate the swing peak of ~4716. The previous bottom of ~4468 must not be violated. As of now, I do not anticipate that even if this short term bullish pattern holds, it would lead to great things.

We have entered the last week of the derivatives cycle. Therefore, I do anticipate this week to be choppy.

I was asked a question, what I meant by stops being run, at the end of this cycle. It simply means that depending on the technical overweight positions, whether bullish or bearish, the opposite camps will attempt to run each other’s stops. As of now, the bears seem to be overweight, so it may be expected that the bulls will run the stops of the bears, and drive them out. Then we may see a relatively smooth move for the month of April.

Trade happy after planning your trade.