Nifty for 24 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Bulls, keep holding your breath. The previous bottom is still holding. As suggested last week and as was anticipated, we did see a bounce, but was met with immediate selling.

I did make a mistake in my musings last week, calling Monday as tomorrow.

Again, as stated last week, I reiterate that this up move may be viewed with a little scepticism, and not much weight may be placed on today’s gap up move.

For a short term bullish pattern, the Nifty must violate the swing peak of ~4716. The previous bottom of ~4468 must not be violated. As of now, I do not anticipate that even if this short term bullish pattern holds, it would lead to great things.

We have entered the last week of the derivatives cycle. Therefore, I do anticipate this week to be choppy.

I was asked a question, what I meant by stops being run, at the end of this cycle. It simply means that depending on the technical overweight positions, whether bullish or bearish, the opposite camps will attempt to run each other’s stops. As of now, the bears seem to be overweight, so it may be expected that the bulls will run the stops of the bears, and drive them out. Then we may see a relatively smooth move for the month of April.

Trade happy after planning your trade.