Nifty for 22 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

21 and 22 March have arrived. Now it would be interesting to see what the market does tomorrow. If the bulls are lucky, then it could give a buying opportunity. If the bears are unlucky, then it could push some more stops. All said, we may see some continued volatility till 31 March.

I received a query whether we should buy or not, as we have had a huge gap open. For that I have only one remark. Please think of the market like a bed of quicksand. Solid on the surface, loose underneath. If you struggle in it, it will pull you deeper within. Therefore, it is not advisable to buy when the market tells you, but rather when you want to buy.

As of now, the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is also looking up and the long term trend is up. The probabilities confirm that the trend is now up. As such, dips may be utilised to buy. It would be foolish to think that the market is going to run away from us in one huge move. Please apply patience.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 21 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the way the Indices have behaved today, it seems that our analysis could stand the test of time. We may see a short term top today or tomorrow, and then we may see some continued volatility till our next time cycle target of 31 March.

Since the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is undetermined and the long term trend is up, we will see these violent reactions, till the froth settles down. And the probabilities all point to the fact, that the intermediate term trend also could point upwards.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Mar 07

For some inexplicable reason, I could not log in to blogspot. Anyway, for whatever it is worth, here is my analysis for yesterday.

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

This was mentioned in my analysis of yesterday. “…. very early days to say. On the other hand, we may see a fall from tomorrow and then a halt on 21, and then a continuation of the uptrend till 31 March.

From what the market has done today, it suggests that this probability is coming into play. We could see some weakness tomorrow. And this could be a bouncing pad. Please remember, this is all a game of probability, and I am just suggesting the most probable event.

In case the market is kind enough and behaves as I think it would, we can make some money. In case it does not, then I would suggest either hedged derivative positions or strict stops.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As per my analysis of 12 March 07, http://dusant.blogspot.com/2007/03/nifty-for-12-mar-07.html, we had anticipated that Friday 16 would be an important bottom. And the market seems to be confirming it. Therefore, in all probability, we could also see a short term top on 21 March.

If we see a sharp retracement downwards till 31 March from 21 onwards, then it is a negative sign, as the market would be taking more time to the downside, than the upside. However, these are very early days to say.

On the other hand, we may see a fall from tomorrow and then a halt on 21, and then a continuation of the uptrend till 31 March.

Do not forget the 29 March derivatives expiration, which could also contribute greatly to volatility. Whatever it is, we should now see a trend emerging at least till the first week of April.

Trade happy