Nifty for 24 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Another gap opening, an immediate correction and a neutral closing. The market is really going to test traders’ nerves. It is still hovering around the historical trendline. In all probability tomorrow could be a weak opening.

Our cycle in time could … just could show us an intermediate top tomorrow. As I am fond of saying, I could be wrong, and the market is the ultimate supreme, I could suggest to allow the market to tell us what is wants to do.

Short term traders could monitor 5577 on the top side and 5418 on the lower side. If either of them breaks, we could take a guess at the short term direction. However, the long term and intermediate term trends are still up, and it could be suggested to buy on dips.

A stop could be placed at 5069 for deciding the intermediate trend.

Ultimately, it all boils down to, what time frame you are looking at, and what is your risk appetite. And the final word is, trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Within a span of two days, historic and short term support and resistance lines have been tested and confirmed. How does the market know where to pause?

After today’s price action, the earlier projected levels do not seem possible now. As we can see, the short term chart has indeed made a bullish pattern. Further, the Index opened with a gap, and failed to close it on the intraday chart. This suggests that the market is indeed bullish and the correction may have been over with Monday’s low.

That brings us to our earlier trading suggestion ... to buy on dips. A stop may be retained at a close below 5070 for the next few days.

The stop must seem a large distance away. However, readers are requested to check out my musings of just last week. The links are given below.
Nifty for 17-Oct-07.
Nifty for 18-Oct-07.
Nifty for 19-Oct-07.

It was suggested that we are in a volatile stage in the market and there could be violent moves either way, as the corrective phase is the most difficult to trade. At times like this, it is also prudent to hedge trades to avoid colossal losses.

Plan your trades and be happy. After all, trading scares are all in the mind.

Nifty for 22 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a nothing day in terms of market movement. Except that a historic support was tested. Today’s session was in the nature of consolidation. That suggests that the market is uncertain of direction. In spite of doomsday “predictions” for “black” Monday the market was rather well behaved.

As of now, the projected levels still stand true. Both for time as well as price.

As was suggested on Friday, I repeat the time and price levels. As of now, ~4765 (~16178 on the BSE) seems to be on the cards. Maybe, we could see a short term bottom on our projected time cycle of 24 October.

I did get some queries about whether the Nifty would hit the 4765 level exactly on 24 October. For such queries, I re-state my philosophy. I do not have a crystal ball, and am not able to see the future. All I can suggest is to … Plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market has finally cracked. This move could have the extinct bears of the Indian markets wanting to come out of hibernation. Already I am beginning to hear their grunts.

To such hopeful bears, I may give the suggestion to please go back to sleep. This correction may last for a short time. However, the market seems to be headed for a phase of high volatility, so even if short term bears do become active, it may not give them adequate opportunities. Stops would be triggered, panic buttons would be hit. The risk to reward ratio is not favourable for bears.

We may see selling at every significant rise, but that could be in the shape of smaller profit booking exits, rather than large scale bear selling.

Yes, it is true that we are correcting down. Yes, we could project some down side. But no one can pin point with certainty when the correction is over. As of now, ~4765 (~16178 on the BSE) seems to be on the cards.

Maybe, we could see a short term bottom on our projected time cycle of 24 October.

Plan your trade and trade happy.