Nifty for 23 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On the face of it, we do see follow up buying to validate Thursday’s bounce. However, the follow up buying is not strong. It may be assumed that the FII’s were absent due to the holiday on Friday in the USA.

On the intraday charts, we saw a short term bullish pattern yesterday. Again, on the intraday charts, it has been validated. But not on the hourly chart. For the short term pattern to be validated, on Monday, the Nifty should move above 5638, and not fall below 5394.

This gives us a large range. To avoid large scale risk, traders could buy keeping the stop at 5394.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 22 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The bounce for today was strong. It needs to be validated tomorrow. In all probability, this bounce is only due to short covering. This suggests that this up move may be short lived.

However, please remember, this is only an assumption. If the Nifty continues its journey upwards and fails to violate 5390 on the downside then the short term trend would resume upwards.

On the intraday charts, we have seen a short term bullish pattern, which still needs to be validated.

There was a question, why I have not suggested going short. The simple reason is that a trader must learn to sail with the wind. It takes much lesser effort to make profits. The 5070 level was just a mathematical projection. It is not necessary that the market could achieve that level. It could stop before. Just like it has done today.

The main trend is still bullish. We see a bullish pattern on the intraday charts. We may hazard entering long positions. However, this phase is a correction in the main up trend. And as we know, any move which is counter to the trend is volatile. It is, therefore, prudent to stick to the trend.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market tanks, fast and furious, it catches traders off guard. However, readers would have been warned to take evasive action yesterday.

It was suggested yesterday that we may achieve 5070 levels on the Index. However, the small expected upside did not happen. It was one way street.

For the short term trend to change upwards, the Nifty should violate 5695 on the upside and not break 5530. It seems the short term bulls may take a short vacation till we have a convincing bullish pattern.

The main trend is still bullish. But we could wait for a bullish pattern to enter long positions.

At time like this, bottom fishers come out in droves and usually end up burning big holes in their pockets. To such potential bulls, I suggest patience, and confirmation. Allow the market to confirm before committing capital.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 20 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Contrary to what was expected, the market has gone into a volatility mode rather than breaking out. This normally happens when the market is correcting. With just a week away from derivatives expiry, this market could shake out long positions. In such an event, the Nifty could achieve the 5070 level or thereabouts.

We also see a strange phenomenon. Normally, this type of pattern does not occur at a market high. A potential head and shoulder pattern seems to be emerging on the intraday charts. For this pattern to be validated, the Nifty should not go below 5500 levels.

We could see a small upside tomorrow. However, for the short term trend to change to upwards, the Nifty should move above 5924 and not violate the bottom of 5756.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips. At times like this, it is very important to wait for a bullish pattern to emerge on the intraday charts, rather than try and jump ahead of the market. As a reminder, the example of a bullish pattern is already placed on my Blog.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 19 Nov 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the charts it is very obvious that the market is testing the resistance again … and again and again. Normally, when the market tests such a resistance several times and is unable to break it, it collapses fast and furious. However, it has not done so. In such an event, it may be surmised that the market is preparing to break out on the upward direction. And this move also could be fast and furious.

We also notice that the downside movement has not been substantial. Therefore, logically, the market should give another 500 points from this stage IF it breaks out upwards. But please remember the suggestion made last week. That of volatility.

We could maintain our suggestion of bullish outlook and could continue to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.