Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Nifty for 31 Jan 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I would tend to attribute today’s knee jerk to the news on a major Steel Company regarding its acquisition. Obviously, some learned MBA in some fund suddenly woke up, and found that the particular company in question was a bad buy, and started selling in a hurry.

It was suggested on Monday that the Nifty was looking like making an intermediate top. The major tradable indices, namely the Bank Nifty and the CNXIT are looking weak as of now. Therefore, it may be assumed that we could have a short term bottom tomorrow. i.e. on Thursday 1 February.

If we look at the chart, we see it from three time frames. The longer term is still intact upwards. The short term is sideways. And within this, we see the extreme short term trend is down. Please choose your time frame for trading, and decide where you want to position yourself, in these hugely volatile news based times.

Unfortunately, a drop of a hundred odd points on the Index is good enough to give the jitters to any trader. Further, the short term movement has given a bearish setup, so we could see some more bearish times ahead.

Trade happy.

4 comments:

pandyaketan said...

Your joke abt MBA waking up is really gr8 ! laughed my guts out ! thanks for tips, march 3900 puts highly traded, what does it signify in todays terms sirji ?? also feb 4200 calls.

reg
ketan

Dusant said...

ketan,

I am glad you had a good laugh. Unfortunately, when people lose money, it does not remain a laughing matter.

It also tells us of things like "insider trading" and vested interests.

On this point, I will not like to say anything more. A quick perusal of the chart will tell us the truth.

Dusant

Dusant said...

If I was trading this market, I would sell options on both sides, as the short term trend is sideways.

And the volatility is on the rise.

Once the direction is established, I would cover the losing option.

Please again remember, this is not trading advise.

Dusant

pandyaketan said...

SIRJI ! bitter truth from u - we like it since it is not tainted - just pure black and white !

Only one complaint abt u though - u never say what u do ! even CNBC guests give disclaimers !! do tell us, we will read betn the lines.

reg
ketan