Nifty for 29 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, “the probability still remains upwards.”

And the graph says it all.

We had suggested too that “probabilities can go wrong at times, …. therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious. Strict stops may be adhered to. Those among us who are trading the derivatives market may hedge their positions.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am very surprised at today’s flat movement. Though we did see intraday volatility, there was hardly any movement on the daily chart. When volatility on the daily chart squeezes to such tight levels, we tend to see an explosive move either way.

Yesterday, it was suggested, “Tomorrow by mid day it is quite probable that we witness a short term bottom, and then a sharp rise up.” We were wrong on the timing but the sharp rise did take place.

The probability still remains upwards. However, probabilities can go wrong at times, as many readers may have experienced. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious. Strict stops may be adhered to. Those among us who are trading the derivatives market may hedge their positions.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When we step back and view the daily chart, it was a boring day, with hardly any movement. However, if we close in, we see extreme volatility, which is liable to scare traders and trigger their stops. That is exactly what the market wants to do.

As was suggested yesterday, 26 June, we witness volatility. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious.

I have added two zones for short term traders to be aware of. Tomorrow by mid day it is quite probable that we witness a short term bottom, and then a sharp rise up. We have three support zones since the last fortnight’s up move. Since the range is limited, we could witness bounces from any of these zones.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been quite some time from my last post. However, so far, the market is still respecting the bullish sentiment.

Yesterday, a correction was expected but did not happen. In such an event, now we may be still holding our long positions.

Today, the Index has made another short term high.

We see quite some churning going on. Banks, which had been exceptionally strong in the last week have been sideways. IT stocks have been taking a beating. Metals have been strong. To make things short, there could be a good churn going ahead. This could contribute to the volatility in the markets.

I have also drawn up cycles in time from various historical highs and lows. This week we have several cycles falling together between today and 8 July. It is normally noticed that when such cycles in time fall in a tight cluster, we witness volatility. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As of today, the short term trend is still holding as if poised to break up. On the hourly chart, it has violated the previous top of 4164 formed on 12 June. It has held above the previous bottom of 4100, also formed on 12 June.

Till today, we could label 12 June as a sell off day with a bounce. However, this time, the Nifty is not showing as much strength as it did earlier on bounces. 4133 could be watched carefully for a possible bounce back in the upward direction. Since there are quite a few news based events lined up, we could possibly see a lot of volatility.

In any case, according to the technicals, I am still convinced that the trend could resume in the upward direction. Another level to watch out for would be 4103, which is the previous swing low of 13 June after 4100. Since both these events are pretty close to one another, we could again see a retest.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As explained yesterday, we continue to label the intermediate trend to be down.

For the short term trend to reverse, the levels for the Nifty are a breakout on the upside of 4164 and not violating 4100 on the downside.

For the intermediate term trend to reverse to up, we need a breakout on the upside of 4206, and the Nifty should not cross 4100 on the downside.

Continue to wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy.

I still maintain that within a day or two we may see a short term reversal. Whether it is strong enough to change the intermediate trend remains to be seen.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As has been suggested, earlier, the historic rising trendline has been tested and violated. There was a sharp bounce from those levels today. This goes to confirm the validity and the importance of this support zone.

If the bottom of today at 4100 is not held, then we could continue to see some more weakness going ahead. Because the earlier bottoms have been violated on the hourly chart, we also label the intermediate trend to be down.

For the intermediate term trend to reverse to up, we need a breakout on the upside of 4206, and the Nifty should not cross 4100 on the downside.

Continue to wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy.

Bulls could take heart from the fact that on the daily charts, the intermediate trend to be down is at 3980. This is just some points away. Which could happen in a day or two.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 08 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all. The Nifty is still hovering around the support zone. We also see it testing the lower rising trendline, which has been tested several times historically. The short term trend is still down. The intermediate term trend is now showing signs of being vulnerable. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. The long term trend is still up.

As suggested again and again, wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy. The levels for Monday could be, when the Nifty violates 4196 on the upside, and then does not violate 4128 on the downside.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term trend is still down. The intermediate term trend is still up. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. If we look at the daily chart, we have to follow the same principle. The long term trend is still up.

Today, the Nifty has re-tested and confirmed a support zone. As was suggested yesterday, we did see a gap down opening, in the first hours of trading. We also did see some buying support coming in, by the way of short covering.

As suggested yesterday, wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy. This would be tomorrow, when the Nifty violates 4230 on the upside, and then does not violate 4161 on the downside.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Index has surprised me by its sharp downward move. The tight movement of the last few trading sessions was suggesting a sharp move. However, the direction was unanticipated. But then, that is what stops are for.

Please take a look at the hourly chart. The red circles are the intermediate bottoms. The blue circles are the short term bottoms.

After today’s action, the short term trend is down. The intermediate term trend is still up. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. If we look at the daily chart, we have to follow the same principle.

And in any case, the long term trend is still up.

Today, the Nifty has rested on a support zone. With the hugely negative sentiment, we may see some follow up selling tomorrow too, in the first hours of trading. We may then see some buying support coming in, by the way of short covering.

Please do not assume anything and do not try bottom fishing. Allow the index to confirm the support at whatever level it chooses, and then buy.

Therefore, please revisit the link on my blog for the bullish set up. As of now, shorting could be hazardous. Here is the link for convenience. http://dusant.blogspot.com/2007/01/nifty-for-11-jan-07.html

The next short term cycle in time falls on June 11. So we may see this downtrend continue till then.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty is continuing its consolidation pattern. We still have a higher bottoms scenario in place. The bounce for today seems very convincing. However, the Nifty is moving in a very tight range over the last few trading sessions. This is like a spring being coiled.

Which way will it jump? The probability remains up. Today’s bounce is accompanied with slightly better volumes. Which leads me to believe that the direction could continue up. That means we can still buy on dips. The crucial test will be 4140, as has been mentioned several times earlier too.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 01 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty has again proved the psychological supply line true. It really does not matter as of now. The market still seems to be in bullish mode. We also see a rising support line. The short term support may be tested. If it breaks the rising support, we have to do a rethink, depending on the technical position as of then.

Till then it is suggested to continue to maintain a bullish frame of mind.

The Index is continuing a well defined consolidation pattern.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 31 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I hate to say, I told you so. But the market has proved this humble analyst correct. And also proved how media hype can affect the sentiment on certain days.

Going ahead, the Index is showing a consolidation pattern. The psychological supply line still is bothering the market. But if this breaks, then we will have a no holds barred bull market. This is not a trading suggestion but a suggestion to plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, “the chart also shows a long term psychological supply line which is extending short term resistance. Short term traders could do well by raising their stop to 4240, which is slightly below the previous historic peak.” The supply line seems to have had its effect today. There is nothing in today’s chart which suggests panic.

In fact, it was the media which was hyping the Shanghai effect. Whereas, if we just step back in time, we will see how the Shanghai Index has outperformed the Indian bourses. Here are some comparative charts, courtesy Yahoo!.

As usual, please right click on the charts, and open in a new window.

Here is a three month comparison, where the Shanghai Index is up in the high 55% region, whereas the Nifty has moved less than 20%.

Now take a look at the six months comparison. As they say, one picture is worth a thousand words.








But wait a moment, take a look at the next chart, over one year.

A whopping 150+%. And the media hypes a six percent fall.

Had it not been for the Capital Goods and the Consumer Durables sectors, the effect on the Indices would have been worse. Longer term traders could still maintain 4140 as their stop. The derivatives expiry will contribute to volatility, so partial hedging also may be advisable. Short term traders may decide their own level of comfort for absorbing a loss, but as oft repeated, a stop is a must.
Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today’s chart shows a steady bullish action, where there has been steady buying, keeping the prices moving higher. This establishes a wide 50 point support range for the short term.

If this support is tested and holds, then we could see continued buying support and historic highs being made on a regular basis.

The chart also shows a long term psychological supply line which is extending short term resistance. Short term traders could do well by raising their stop to 4240, which is slightly below the previous historic peak.

Longer term traders could still maintain 4140 as their stop. The derivatives expiry will contribute to volatility, so partial hedging also may be advisable.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 25 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday 24 May, that the correction does not seem over, the market opened with a downside gap. It was also suggested that “according to calculations, the market could see short term supports at 4170, 4095 and 3980. Allow the market to confirm these short term bottoms, before we change our mind about buying in.”

The market did take support at 4141, between the two calculated levels, and then there was no looking back. Today’s upward move has all the signs of short covering by panicked bears.

Another reason could be the weekend factor, where the bulls have masterfully trapped bears. Very frankly, I am very apprehensive of such a market move. In such an event, normally, we can expect a bear attack soon. Therefore, for any buy action we take, we must keep the low of today at 4141 as a stop, to avoid calamitous losses.

Sometime, we cannot plan for such a situation, where the market tanks at the open, giving the impression of weakness, and carries up all through the day.

After today’s move, the sentiment is fragile, but back in the positive direction.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 24 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market did pause for a short term at a support zone. It was not strong enough to give enough impetus for buying. Hence, it was quite natural to expect the market to continue further down.

According to calculations, the market could see short term supports at 4170, 4095 and 3980. Allow the market to confirm these short term bottoms, before we change our mind about buying in.

Further, we have not seen enough time elapse for the negative sentiment to build up. And we all know, we should be buying only when the negative sentiment is at its peak. The sudden crash in the last hour or so, must have triggered a lot of stops of bulls.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 23 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It is quite possible that the cycle in time of 22 May 2007 is contributing to the weakness today.

Most prudent traders would have had their stops triggered and locked in profit. There comes a time when we could step aside and allow the market to decide on its course. This could possibly be such a time.

It was expected that a short term top could have been registered yesterday. I may be wrong in my projection. It could have been today. In any case, we are stepping into the last week of derivatives expiry. Always it is a time to be prudent rather than rash.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 22 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We have finally arrived at our D-Day of the cycle in time of 22 May 2007. From today’s trading it seems to have turned out like a non-event.

Quite a few friends have either written to me or asked me on chat what they should do. Exit all longs? Go Short? Buy on Dips? To all such queries, I have a very simple answer. Please get out of the habit of trying to pick tops and bottoms. Treat trading like any other business, rather than like a casino.

A cycle in time is just that … a cycle in time. Allow the market to tell us what the price is doing. Tomorrow, either of three things can happen.

The market can continue up.

In that case, it is suggested to just keep tightening stops on the bought position.

The market can move sideways.

In that case, the stops are always there to allow the traders a profitable exit.

The market can move down.

In that case, the stops are always there to allow a profitable exit.

The common thing among all the three scenarios is the stop. And that is what will keep our profit intact.

The Nifty is making historic highs, and bulls are worried? I find that very strange.

From today’s move, it does not seem that the bull run is over, not as yet. We may have a short term top today. But then, I repeat, allow the market to tell us that, rather than jump the gun.

Even though the price is banging away at the historic supply line, why are we worried, when the supply line is rising? A rising line means added profit. It is that simple.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The first tick of the morning closed the gap which was created on Thursday 17 May, technically. However, I would not give much cognisance to the first tick, as it could be just a small trade registered. Two short term zones marked in grey are those showing the gaps. In the tussle between bulls and bears, normally the market respects such gaps. That is because the bulls do not want the bears to cover their short positions which have been created prior to the gaps. The short covering then adds impetus to the bull phase, allowing bulls to exit at higher levels.

The Nifty is just a whisker away from a historic high. Normally, we do not expect the weekend to be such a non-event day, with flat trading.

When volatility tightens, we could expect some explosive move either way. I could be wrong, but the probability of an up move still remains. Till then … Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today’s move with a rising window would not have allowed traders to enter at the open. This type of market move normally frustrates traders and then they jump in at any price. They then end up holding stocks at high prices.

The Nifty future has made a historic high today. Whereas, the underlying Nifty index has yet to make a new high. This suggests that some element of excessive speculation is slowly entering the market. The future is now trading almost at par with the Index.

Under normal circumstances, this always rings a warning bell. We are fast approaching our time target of 22 May.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On 15 May, it was suggested “if the gap is not closed, then we may see a runaway gap, which could reinforce the bullish sentiment.” The market did open with a gap, but we did not really see a runaway gap. In any case, the bullish sentiment has reflected well in today’s sharp move up.

Today, the short term trend has changed as up. From the way the market is behaving, it is my expectation, that this up move may be short lived. In fact, as stated earlier, we have a cycle in time on 22 May, which could be a short term top. If the market behaves itself, then we may see the trend continue up till 22 May.

Plan the trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 15 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On Friday, 11 May, it was suggested to “wait for a break above 4095, and then buy on a dip, with an appropriate stop.” Again on Monday, 14 May, it was suggested “the gap of today may be tried to be closed. This down move may be utilised to buy.”

Today has been a non event day … almost. Except that yesterday’s gap has not been closed. Therefore, we could be alert tomorrow for such an event. However, if the gap is not closed, then we may see a runaway gap, which could reinforce the bullish sentiment.

The candles are still small. The short term trend has still not changed as up, but has not confirmed the down either. The likelihood of it changing to up is highly probable.

Plan the trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On Friday, 11 May, it was suggested to “wait for a break above 4095, and then buy on a dip, with an appropriate stop.”

The break above 4095 has happened, and we could use any correction to buy in.

Further, the low of 3981 seems to have taken support on a tested trend, which validates it, further. Therefore, we may label this bottom as a significant one. The gap up opening may not have allowed traders to buy in, but these are the hazards to real live trading.

In any case, the gap of today may be tried to be closed. This down move may be utilised to buy.

The candles are still small. This tells us that even after such a positive opening for the week, the market continues to be uncertain about the direction. The short term trend may change as up from today, provided the bottom of 3981 is not violated. The likelihood of that happening is highly probable.

Plan the trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 11 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As of Friday, 11 May, we can term the short term trend to be down. This is strictly from a technical point of view. However, if we separate the black and white from the grey, the freak tick on the Nifty at the opening registered the low, without actually having really traded through. This suggests computerised basket selling.

I already hear whispers of market manipulation and conspiracy. I would suggest readers to forget those conspiracy theories, as the market is not conspiring against each of you as individuals. It is just a matter of some fund manager or managers assuming that the market is going to trade lower.

There is a popular saying in the West, “sell in May and go away”. As we see the market getting more correlated with world markets, we also notice that we have had major corrections in May 2004, March 2005, May 2006 and now possibly May 2007. Now that the earnings season is over, it is pragmatic to expect some profit bookings.

From a trading point of view, where are we in the trend? The long term is up, the intermediate is up, and the short term is down.

In any case, the low of Monday 30 April (4028), which was suggested as a stop, would have been triggered. We see the Nifty taking support on another zone with the low at 3981. For the adventurous among us, who are tempted to buy, the low of 3981 may be used as a stop.

However, for the conservative among us, who wish to follow our bullish set up example (see link on the right), it would be advisable to wait for a break above 4095, and then buy on a dip, with an appropriate stop.

The candles are still small and the shadows are large. This tells us that even though the trading range for the day is large enough, the market continues to be uncertain about the direction.

And as I am fond of repeating … now is the actual time to Plan the trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The situation is getting too close for comfort. We did see a bounce today. However, the market could not sustain the gains and crashed. The positive thing about today is that the earlier bottom is still holding.

Traders could continue to keep the low of Monday 30 April (4028), as a stop to protect from losses.

For the last few days, we notice that the candles are small but the shadows are large. This tells us that even though the trading range for the day is large enough, the market is uncertain about the direction. Also we notice from the chart that the price is squeezing, with lower tops and higher bottoms.

When the market itself is uncertain about the direction, why risk capital and try and catch the bottom? Wait for the trend to establish.

And as I am fond of repeating … Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market is continues to follow the technical pattern. It is still respecting earlier established supports and resistances. Traders could still keep the low of Monday 30 April (4028), as a stop to protect from losses.

Readers must be getting tired of reading the same thing over and over again, but nothing dramatic has happened to change that belief.

Today’s small candle again is in the nature of a likely correction. The Nifty could take support around the 4070 to 4100 region.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On Thursday, 3 May, we had mentioned, “We could see a small downside correction, which may be utilised to buy in.” I am sure, readers could utilise these opportunities.

The market is still following an orderly pattern. It is still respecting earlier established supports and resistances. Traders could still keep the low of Monday 30 April (4028), as a stop to protect from losses.

Today, even on a down day, on the Index, we see some buying going on “behind the scenes.” This reinforces my belief that this minor downside is a correction, and could be used to buy in.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We had pent up energies for two days, and as a result, we see a gap up opening. This was only to be expected. And as with any gap up opening, we could expect some mild profit booking to come along. We could see a small downside correction, which may be utilised to buy in.

The market is still following an orderly pattern. Traders could still keep the low of Monday 30 April, as a stop to protect from losses.

Those among us, who have not bought, could wait for an upside violation of the high of 27 April, and keep an appropriate stop. For traders with a slightly longer term horizon, we could wait for a marginal dip after the expected upside violation of the 27 April high. However, it is my feeling that this could be a last leg up for the market, on an intermediate term. We could see a deep correction towards this month end. The next cluster of cycles in time occurs on 22 May.

As of now, we could expect the market to make an intermediate term high around that time.

Plan and trade happy.

An Aside

Did you relax on Labour Day? An oxymoron if I ever heard of one.

Click here ...


Have a pious Buddha Purnima.

Nifty for 30 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty did not achieve our short term price objective, but has indeed bounced from our time frame objective. As of now, the bounce does seem convincing enough.

The market is also following an orderly pattern so far. Short term traders could have bought this bounce as was suggested on Friday, 27 April. (Click Here) . Those among us, who have bought, could keep the low of Monday 30 April, as a stop to protect from losses.

Those among us, who have not bought, could wait for an upside violation of the high of 27 April, and keep an appropriate stop. For traders with a slightly longer term horizon, we could wait for a marginal dip after the expected upside violation of the 27 April high.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

At this point in time, I can only say one thing, with great humility. I am indeed gratified that readers could have made some profitable use of my personal musings.

As of Friday evening, I can only repeat what I said yesterday … “Then a question again is asked … what next? Frankly, I cannot answer that question now. However, I can just state what I expect. I think that Monday, 30 April will show us a short term bottom, and the uptrend is going to resume up once again.”

The Nifty could stop at around the 3950 levels. But please … I can only suggest not to rush and buy at that level. Wait for a confirmation of a short term bullish pattern, and then buy. For new readers, here is the link once again (click here).

Wait for a bounce, allow the market to confirm the bottom, and then buy.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 April 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
On Wednesday, I expected some mild weakness for the 11:00 am tick, and then a resumption of the uptrend. Thankfully, the market respected the analysis.

On 4 April (click here), on 5 April and again on 13 April, (click here), it was suggested that the market could possibly make a new high around 4170 on 26 April. These estimates were when the market was at the 3750 levels. So a buy and hold trader could have captured a possible 420 points on the Nifty, so far.

I feel grateful to the market for having fulfilled our estimates.

Then a question again is asked … what next? Frankly, I cannot answer that question now. However, I can just state what I expect. I think that Monday, 30 April will show us a short term bottom, and the uptrend is going to resume up once again.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty took support at the grey band, which was as suggested yesterday. It was also suggested that the Nifty might retest the grey band once again. However, it did not happen. Largely due to the announcement by banks about the continuing unchanged interest rates. The biggest gainer in the sector indices has been the banks today.

Unchanged interest rates bode well for industry. Also, from the movement of the Bank Index, it hints to some insider knowledge.

Thursday’s derivatives expiry is just two days away.

For tomorrow, I expect some mild weakness for the 11:00 am tick, and then a resumption of the uptrend. Mind it. I have been wrong several times earlier.

For the time being, it may be suggested that bulls among us now wait patiently on the sidelines. However, extreme short term traders could still utilise a sharp trading opportunity. The 4170 target level, which has been mentioned several times, is fast approaching.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

So far nothing seems to have changed. A huge gap opening was met with selling pressure, which is only normal. The gap was closed immediately, and the Nifty took support on a minor level. I expect that this minor support which is near today’s close, will be re-tested again. I also expect that the previous high, which is shown by the grey band will also be retested.

I had already warned readers about the Nifty approaching several clusters of cycles in time, which could contribute to volatility. As of the technical position now, I could still suggest readers to buy on this dip for a short term peak on 26 April. As the legend on the chart says it all … “could this current move terminate when time and price meet?”

Thursday’s derivatives expiry is nearing fast. Be careful.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We see the Index again retest yesterday’s high, this time successfully. And more importantly, it has moved up with a rising window. The implication is confirming the bullish nature of the market. It has also broken out of the grey resistance band, which we have been carrying for almost three months.

I had expected the short term trend to change to down, from Thursday, but the market proved me wrong. In any case, the longer term trends are still up, so I could suggest the bears to sit on the fence for the time being.

The next cycle in time falls on 26 April, which incidentally is also the Thursday coinciding with the derivatives expiry. So watch out.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Oh well … the market did as was expected. The world markets news flows made the Nifty open with a large downside gap, but it displayed enough strength to recoup all the losses of the gap. Today has been a minor cycle in time, and the market has shown enough resilience to claw back up. This confirms my belief that we are into a volatile stage of the market.

Further, it could be noticed on the chart how the price is moving, respecting all the various support and resistance levels, which we have been seeing for almost two months. I still have not been able to understand how the collective wisdom of millions of people influences the order in the market.

We see the Index again try and retest yesterday’s high, unsuccessfully. This suggests that our analysis of yesterday may stand the test of time. Yesterday could be a short term top. We could see a short term down trend leading to the derivatives expiry on 26 April.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am not posting the chart here. However, suffice to say, that today, the Nifty Future also hit a minor predefined level, which the Nifty Index hit yesterday.

This reinforces my belief that we are heading into a volatile stage of the market.

Further, it could be noticed on the chart how the price is moving, respecting all the various support and resistance levels, which we have been seeing for almost two months. I still have not been able to understand how the collective wisdom of millions of people influences the order in the market.

As suggested yesterday, today was a very interesting day in the scheme of things. The market did move above yesterday’s high but was not able to sustain. Today could be a short term top. We could see a short term down trend leading to the derivatives expiry on 26 April.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We had an exact hit on a minor predefined level. The Nifty reacted downwards from there. Therefore, in all probability, we may see a small downside move. Why small? Because of the fact, that normally when the market tests a predefined level, it tends to retest it.

If the retest fails, then we can expect some more downside. However, the amplitude of the correction has not been very large, so we could see a continuation of the up move from mid day tomorrow, and the Index may attempt a retest of today’s high.

Tomorrow would be a very interesting day in the scheme of things.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

What can one say when the market opens with a rising window? The trend is bullish. Even though the intraday move was not very significant today, the market has moved through significant levels. This short term move may terminate at a short term level of around 4068/4070.

I repeat my earlier statements. The next cycles in time falls on 19, 26 and 29 April. So we may expect some volatility around that time. Keep utilising the dips to buy. Until we see a bearish pattern on the intraday charts.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been some time since I last posted. Some friends did ask me why I have not been posting regularly. It seems redundant to repeat the same thing over and over again. Use dips to buy.

A new short term top indicates that there is enough strength in the market to push it further up. There has been volatile sector rotation because of the news based reactions. Even so, we see earlier resistances being broken with regularity.

More significantly, today a long term supply line has been broken, which was lending psychological levels both for support as well as resistances. This bodes well for the bull market.

The next cycle in time falls on 26 and 29 April. So we may expect some volatility around that time. Keep utilising the dips to buy. Until we see a bearish pattern on the intraday charts.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am happy that the market has respected the levels suggested on Tuesday, 3 April. The short term trend is still up, and now will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

The short term trend will be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February. At the same time, I would like to sound a word of caution. The 3620 low has been too low for comfort. And we do not see any strong support coming at these levels too. Therefore, in my estimation, the upswing we see may not be very high. In fact, it may be capped at around 4170, in this phase.

No doubt, the long term trend is still up, but these gyrations of the market will kill a small trader. Only an investor can stand a chance.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Readers may find my statement ludicrous (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ludicrous) when I say that the short term trend is still up. When the market suffers a 5+% fall, it does not seem that the trend is still up. But the evidence is still suggesting it. We still have a higher top, higher bottom pattern on the charts. Later the index may turn out a consolidation pattern, which remains to be seen. This is our conclusion as on today. And the short term trend will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

It takes a lot of guts to buy when the market is tanking 5% and we do not know what the outlook will be tomorrow. That is where planning the trade comes into focus. Traders could still wait for dips to buy, using our guidelines for a bullish setup. Keeping appropriate stops and hedging will be a prudent idea.

The trend will also be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With Friday’s close, we have reached a significant cycle in time, which we have been referring to in my earlier posts. It certainly will be interesting to see how the Nifty reacts at this time cycle.

My anticipation is that Friday or Monday could show us a short term bottom, and we may see the up trend resuming hereafter. This uptrend may well continue till the middle of April with small dips, or course.

News driven events do have a significant short term effect. However, it is my feeling that the rate hike was already anticipated and could have already been discounted by the market. That could explain the 1000 point fall in the Bank Nifty in the last month or so.

As these are speculative conclusions, we must keep this information at the back of our minds and follow the collective wisdom of the market. And the collective market seems to be reflecting the trend to be up.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With the intervening holiday, it was quite natural that we see a gap down opening. It was not too alarming. And the whole day passed almost uneventfully. Except for the mild excitement towards the end.

It is expected to see the short term weakness continuing on Thursday. Of course, with derivatives expiry tomorrow, we could see a lot of excitement towards the end.

Volumes continue to be high on dips. Therefore, we could assume that the trend is going to resume upwards in a couple of days. Quite possibly, we may see another fifty odd points more towards the downside.

These dips could be used to buy.

Trade happy.

Ram Navami

Nifty for 26 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the market open to manipulation? The answer is an unequivocal … yes!!! We see a large lower shadow on the Nifty, which could possibly be due to a “freak” trade on one of the Index component stocks. In all probability it could be Bharti Airtel. Just goes to show, what can be done to the market, and how technicals need to be analysed with a pinch of reality.

Friday 23 was a small spinning top candle, which is a precursor of a correction. Today we have seen one such day. In all probability we could see short term weakness continuing till Wednesday or Thursday. After that, we may see the uptrend resuming.

We see on the active futures, that volumes are increasing on dips which are supporting the market up. Therefore, we could assume that the trend is going to resume upwards in a couple of days.

These dips could be used to buy.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market is behaving perfectly, giving respect to supports and resistances.

The short term, intermediate term and the long term trend is up. Dips may be utilised to buy. And it does seem that the market may oblige bulls who are still waiting on the sidelines.

On the daily chart, we see a shooting star candle, which normally precedes a correction. On the other hand, we may have seen a minor winding down of short term positions, due to the weekend.

Trade happy.