These are my musings and not trading advise.If you want to see the full sized chart, right click on it and open in a new window.
I missed posting out my analysis yesterday. Today I have decided to post my musings on a blog rather than send it out by mail.
The Nifty seems to be now moving in a consolidation zone. Today it hit a higher roadblock, on the levels which I have been carrying for the last couple of weeks.
So far we still seem to be in an uptrend from 14 June 06. The Nifty tried hard today too, to make a higher top, which could violate the top on 25 June. As far as a test is concerned, yes, it is a failure on the hourly chart.
But it will only be confirmed as a failure, if the Nifty violates the previous bottom of 2900 made on 27 June.
Till then, I am considering long trades.
As we move further in time, the objective which I have been carrying for a few days, looks more distant than ever. As of today, traders do not seem to be in a mood to commit to anything aggressively, with the uncertainty of the FOMC meet around the corner.
Banks look like they would underperform as the Index suggests. IT stocks could hold their own.
Trade Happy. You make lesser mistakes that way.
5 comments:
Comments are welcome.
Thanks for the comments Doc. There is no "more" or "less" reliability.
As I constantly keep repeating "ad nauseam", I just try and listen to what the market is telling me.
Best regards to you too.
Dushant sir !! Your fan has come here too !! East or West he is the best !!
i have created another blog called NiftyZone, for those other fans who are looking for publicity !!
Hello Doc Amar,
Any method of analysis, as mentioned by you (Elliott / Fibonacci / Chart patterns) obviously use price. Custom or standard indicators are basically a derivative of the price.
My analysis uses a combination of both. The charts I post are simplified using the various fibonacci levels.
Assuming that we do not use Fibonacci levels, but straight percentages, like 25% 50% 75% or 100%, it is only a measure of HOW MUCH the price has actually done.
Let us assume that the price has retraced upward between 25 and 30%, and subsequently reverses down. That tells us there is not enough strength in the market action to take it even beyond the 30% mark.
It is like looking at a thermometer, which has major calibrations at every ten degrees and minor calibrations at every single degree.
Check this analogy:
If the temperature for the day at the "bottom" was 13 degrees (C), and rises to 20, then falls to 18, and again rises beyond 21, we know that the trend is going to be warm, and we should not go outdoors in warm clothing.
It is the same thing with the stock market.
There is nothing etched sacrosanct in stone about the fibonacci levels, they are just minor gradations on the thermometer which allows us to conclude what the trend is doing.
In fact, I remember reading about an article which went on to hypothesise that the Phi (1.618)is not as sacred as it is made out to be. The square root of 2 (1.4142) has greater relevance in price expansions and contractions.
Yes, I cannot disagree with you on the phrase, "to each his/her own".
I have feedback on my messenger and some direct mails that folks use my daily analysis for taking longer term positions, as well as day trading. The analysis is there, how folks use it depends on them.
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