Nifty for 07 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It does seem that my anticipation for the market turned out horribly wrong.

The previous intermediate bottom has been broken with a gap. This is not a good sign for bulls.

It does seem now that the market may test the previous bottom of 4450. Whether it does or not, remains to be seen.

One thing is sure. The market is not trending either upwards or downwards, from the intermediate term perspective. It has been sideways. The short term trend is down, of course. The long term trend is still up.

However, the long term trend also looks in danger of turning down. It could be prudent to hedge at this stage.

The longer lower shadow of today may be attributed to weekend short covering, and may not be significant, unless we have strong follow up buying on Monday.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 05 Mar 08

Wish all readers a very pious Mahashivratri.

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

So far so good for the Index. The ~4800 level has still not been violated as yet. In fact, due to the mid week holiday, we could probably see listless trading, even on Friday.

If indeed this bottom of 4th holds, we could be back on bullish track.

This is both from the price and time view.

However, as mentioned yesterday, we are still not out of the bear woods. There are many strong resistances built up over the last two trading months, which would be exerting their influence. The first major level would be the black box zone ~5400-5450.

The previous bottom of around 4450 is still alive, which is circled in blue.

Volatility could remain increased all through this month.

If we have gutsy bottom fishers, this could be an appropriate time to get into the act. As is always prudent, stops must strictly be adhered to and small losses cut ruthlessly, before they become unmanageable.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 04 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We have reached precariously close to the ~4800 level which could give us a hint of the intermediate term trend.

In fact, tomorrow, i.e. 5 March 2008, we come across a major cycle in time, from a long term perspective. In all probability, we could see the index bottoming either today or on 5th.

If indeed it does form a short term bottom, bulls would indeed be relieved. However, it is not that we are our of the bear woods. There are many strong resistances built up over the last two trading months, which would be exerting their influence. The first major level would be the black box zone ~5400-5450.

The previous bottom of around 4450 is still alive, which is circled in blue.

Volatility could remain increased all through this month.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 03 Mar 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The trailing stop at 5090, which was suggested for short term traders, would have exited them from the market.

The short term trend has turned sharply down. However, the intermediate term trend has still retained some semblance of bullishness while being flat. Intermediate term traders are also cautioned that this is not an invitation to buy. For the intermediate term trend to turn down, we should monitor ~4800.

With such a sharp fall, it is expected that we may have some sort of short covering, which would allow partial recovery. However, this partial recovery could be viewed by bigger bears as an opportunity to short, and we may see selling at higher levels.

A word of caution. It is assumed that readers of these musings are small traders, who do not have a large capital base. Therefore, smaller traders are not suggested to short either, unless they are looking for scalping trades.

As had been suggested earlier, there are many clusters of cycles in time, which could allow volatility to increase all through this month.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 29 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It makes no sense trying to analyse the market when sentiment are being driven from minute to minute by the news. However, it does seem that the market has not received the Annual Budget too well.

It would take another two or three trading sessions for the MBAs of the Financial Institutions to work out the implications of the Budget and devise their strategies towards the market. Therefore, it is suggested for the reader to stay away rather than risk capital. Short term traders could now place their trailing stop at 5090.

Allow the news to be assimilated and let the market tell us what it feels. Then only it would be prudent to enter the market, either way. So far the short term trend is still up, while the intermediate term trend is sideways.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 28 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market seems to be making another try at the black resistance zone overhead. Today has been a damp squib as far as an expiration day is concerned.

There is not significant change from the technical position as of yesterday. Short term traders could raise their stops to a close below 5170.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 25 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the Nifty did try to close the gap. The bounce back up is also very evident on the chart. It suggests that the bulls have an upper hand as of now.

The short term bottom which was formed today may turn out to be significant, if we see a short term bullish pattern emerge today. The short term correction seems to be over, both in terms of time as well as price.

Therefore, I suggest bulls to be prepared to take advantage of this.

On the flip side, we have been seeing the sentiment has been fluctuating wildly. Therefore it is suggested to adhere to s strict trading plan. Short term traders may retain ~4990 as a trailing stop for long positions.

Longer term traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 22 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market again tried to close the gap between ~4950 and ~5050, as was suggested this week. It was expected that we may see a weak day with a bounce up towards the end. However, the expected bounce did not materialise.

The short term bullish pattern which was emerging yesterday has been negated.

As we are seeing almost on a daily basis, the sentiment is fluctuating wildly. Therefore it is suggested for short term traders to buy only after a short term bullish formation is complete.

Longer term traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market tried to close the gap between ~4950 and ~5050, as was suggested yesterday. It was also suggested that we may see a weak day with a bounce up towards the end.

As of today, we do see some change in sentiment. We also see the earlier gap not being closed. Anyway, as of now, a short term bullish pattern may be emerging.

This would be valid if the Nifty breaks above 5242 on the upside and does not violate 5115 on the downside.

Short term traders may wait to buy after this short term bullish formation is complete.

Longer term traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 20 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The challenge zone has had its effect as anticipated. As of now, the market seems to be looking to close the gap between ~4950 and ~5050.

Tomorrow may continue to be weak and we may some intraday short covering towards to end of the day. The short term trend may continue to be weak for another week. The bulls would be hoping for some sort of bounce back, but it is expected that they may not be strong enough.

In such a case, it would be advisable to allow the news driven negative sentiment to drive itself out.

Short term traders may wait to buy after a short term bullish formation.

Longer term traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 19 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, the market has reached the real challenge zone. The black box still is not violated.

A gap open, a sharp retest of the “zone” and a closing of the opening gap. All in a day’s work.

The candle for today suggests a breaking of the upward momentum. It could be wise to be cautious at this stage. Stops may be raised, either to lock in profits or to protect losses, depending on what time frame of trading the reader chooses.

Longer term traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 18 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, the market did try and close the gap. It was unsuccessful, and therefore, we see a sharp spurt up.

The black box overhead is going to be a real challenge zone, both for the bulls as well as the bears. The bulls will try their hardest to pierce that range whereas the bears are going to try and protect it. The odds are at present in favour of the bulls. Monday could be lacklustre as USA is going to have a long weekend.

Traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 15 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, the market did try and close the gap. It was unsuccessful, and therefore, we see a sharp spurt up.

The black box overhead is going to be a real challenge zone, both for the bulls as well as the bears. The bulls will try their hardest to pierce that range whereas the bears are going to try and protect it. The odds are at present in favour of the bulls. Monday could be lacklustre as USA is going to have a long weekend.

Traders may continue to buy on dips. The stop may be retained at a close below ~4950 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 14 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that the market may be bottoming here. But the huge gap open has taken me by surprise. I am sure it would have taken a lot of traders by surprise too.

The market may attempt to close this gap of today. If it does, then we could see the emergence of a bullish pattern.

Therefore is may be suggested for traders to buy now on dips. The stop may be retained at ~4800 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 13 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

A close study of today’s intraday chart shows that the market is attempting to make a short term bottom here.

But it also shows that there is no trend. We see large hourly bullish and bearish ticks side by side. This suggests that the market may be bottoming here, but is still undecided.

The banking sector is the frontrunner if we are indeed to see a short term bottom here.

The negative sentiment is slowly being weaned out of the system, even though we do not see a full scale positive mood.

Short term traders could buy after a short term bullish pattern emerges from the trading. A stop may be placed at ~4800 for long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 08 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Well. The first cluster of supports is broken. It should tell us that the market is in no hurry to be bullish.

The last hour rush up may again be attributed to week-end short covering.

At this stage, the previous support ~4996 may also be broken. Therefore, we should be careful of our long positions. In fact on the intraday chart, we see a technical pattern called an island reversal. Purists would argue that this is not a classic island reversal, and it should happen only at market peaks. So … what the hell? It is not a classic pattern, but it is a pattern nonetheless.

The market has peaked for the short term at around ~5550 levels. I would advise bullish positions only after that high is violated. Till then, we could even short the market on rises, keeping the previous cluster of ~5400 as a stop.

The only silver lining in the dark clouds is the IT sector, which may just have bottomed.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 07 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

In spite of the huge down day today, the technical position still has not changed.

The blue circled supports still stand good.

Short term traders could well stay out, while longer term traders could monitor the previous cluster of supports around ~5100 for signs of strength or weakness. If these clusters of supports are broken, then we may well see the index testing the previous bottom around the 5000 levels. If that too does not hold, then the next bottom of ~4450 may be tested.

That is a large number of points from here, so it is suggested to avoid the temptation of bottom fishing. Please wait for the emergence of a short term bullish pattern to buy.

It has stood us well over time, so let us not tempt the demons of capital loss.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 06 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We seem to be back to square one. A huge gap up one day and a larger gap down the next. The extra bullish scenario which we talked about just yesterday has been nullified.

The other blue circled supports still stand good. It is some measure of the volatility, where online trading brokers do not allow intraday trading. In fact, maybe because of that very reason, the market is unable to seek its true price discovery.

Short term traders could well stay out, while longer term traders could monitor the previous cluster of supports around ~5100 for signs of strength or weakness.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 05 Feb 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today we saw a nothing day. But technically speaking, the market has indeed stayed above the danger levels on a short term basis. We could continue with the levels mentioned for yesterday.

Short term traders could now do well to raise their stop to the 5385 level to lock in loss of capital. Longer term traders could wait for a close below 5385.

If in the next few days, this gap is left open, we could be seeing a short term runaway gap, which signals an extremely bullish scenario for the market. Further, if the Nifty moves up higher than 5546, that too would be a bullish signal.

Nifty for 04 Feb 2008

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was an ideal buying opportunity, both for short term and longer term traders. The market behaved, giving us a buy signal, as was suggested on Friday.

The market gapped through the previous swing tops, and then corrected enough to take support at the same precise level.

Short term traders could now do well to raise their stop to the 5385 level to lock in loss of capital. Longer term traders could wait for a close below 5385.

If in the next few days, this gap is left open, we could be seeing a short term runaway gap, which signals an extremely bullish scenario for the market.

Trade happy after planning your trade.