Nifty for 23 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all. The steady uptrend of the last two odd months has finally been broken. This break is unhealthy for the longer term trend of the Index.

The sentiment has indeed turned sharply negative in the last two trading sessions alone. What was looking like a correction now seems to be a fresh downward move. This may allow the Nifty to move to the lower end of the short term down-sloping channel ~4850. If that is true, then our earlier check points of ~4934 and ~4923 would be violated.

It is now advisable to give up bullish hopes for some time. Wait patiently until we see a definite bull pattern, and then only take long positions. For those who are already long, it is suggested to place stops as each trader’s comfort level allows.

Last week, it was suggested that we have a cycle in time falling on 25 May 08. Let us see what this cycle brings.

We may even see panic.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the correction over? From today’s sharp retracement up, it would seem so. In any case, we had expected the correction to be mild. However, the market will soon tell us. If it violates 5050 on the downside, we may assume that the correction is still continuing. If it violates 5168 on the upside, then it is over.

Today, the low has just kissed our monitoring level of 5066 as was mentioned yesterday, and retraced dramatically. This is a point in favour of the bulls.

As on today, the probability of a mild downside move seems more. It is quite possible that the Nifty may test the ~5050 levels once again. The market has presented both the bullish and bearish scenarios.

The market sentiment is still bullish. This allows us to suggest that dips may be used to buy.

The only chink in the Nifty’s armour seems the banking sector. If we have any positive stock or sector specific news relating to the banking sector, we could see the Nifty fly.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 20 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

After a few strong bull days, it is quite natural to expect a correction due to profit booking.

As of now the sentiment remains mildly positive. This correction is expected to be mild. As of now, the technical position suggests that it may correct to the orange zone. However, the previous swing low of 4935 should be significant. Therefore, it may be expected that the Nifty could stop anywhere above that level.

However, if the Nifty remains above the previous swing top of 5066, then it will signal to us stronger days ahead for the Index.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Mahavir Jayanti

Wish all readers a pious and peaceful Mahavir Jayanti.

Nifty for 16 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested to maintain uneasy longs while adhering to strict stops. Readers who would have followed that suggestion would now be extremely comfortable and sitting on a small nest of profits.

Even though the sentiment is mildly positive, nevertheless, it is not one of reckless abandon. Therefore, depending on the trading time frame of individual readers, it is suggested to keep raising trailing stops to lock in profits.

We may have a couple of up days next week, and then we could see a correction. As of now, this anticipated dip may be utilised to buy.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 14 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term bullish pattern is still holding. As mentioned yesterday, for this pattern to be validated, the market should move above 5066 and not violate the low of 4913.

The sentiment is creeping up, but not too convincingly.

Readers who have guts of steel could hazard buying at this stage. For those who venture to buy, we could place the stop at a close below 4940. Also a trailing stop to exit may be maintained at 4912. These stops may be adhered to ruthlessly.

It is only the IT sector which is really propping the Index up, due to the sops for the sector and also the rising dollar against the Rupee.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 13 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market moved exactly the reverse of what was anticipated for today. It opened with an upside gap, and then steadily lost ground through the day. The net result however, is almost the same. There seems to be a short term bullish pattern emerging. For this pattern to be validated, the market should move above 5066 and not violate the low of 4913.

In such a case, a short term bullish scenario may be utilised to buy. This is purely from the technical point of view. However, from a personal view, I am not too convinced about the anticipated formation of the bullish pattern. We may see further profit booking at higher levels. As a result, we may see further weakness in the stocks, even though the Index may show bullish signs.

Therefore, I may suggest extreme caution at this stage.

We have revised the orange band slightly to accommodate the new data from the market. During times of uncertainty, it is always advisable to stay away rather than burn holes in the pocket.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 09 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was mentioned yesterday, “the orange band around the 4970~5000 should now come into play”. It has hit our target bang on. Whether the Index will hold this level or not remains to be seen. Normally, after such a sharp dip, we do see some pull back.

Therefore, we could expect Monday to test the rising blue line, and then make a move up. How strong would it be is anybody’s guess. But short term trader may take advantage of this expected up move. It also goes with without saying to keep stops intact.

This suggestion is akin to bottom fishing, and readers must be tired of hearing me … warning of the hazards of catching a falling knife with open hands.

The chart still shows a steady uptrend, as is apparent by the upwards sloping blue channel. This last down move has been rather sharp, and later we could see selling at higher levels. If we witness strong buying at higher levels, enough to counter profit booking, we could see even higher tops on the Index.

The scenario which I expect on Monday is that the Index could open with a downside gap, and then strong hands may step in to start buying, which could push the Index upwards.

Even now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. Traders with a longer term horizon could wait for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 08 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the market still is uncertain. Readers could have closed their long positions.

As of now, the market still does not seem bearish, but there is no harm to keep locking in profits and try a re-entry at a later date when the technical position is healthier.

Even now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. I would still suggest waiting for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions.

The orange band around the 4970~5000 should now come into play.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 07 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Traders could now raise their stops to 5101 which is the low for today. Long positions may be closed if the market remains uncertain.

As of now, the market does not seem bearish, but there is no harm to keep locking in profits.

As of now, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid. However, I would now wait for a formation of the short term bullish pattern to enter long positions. The market sentiment suddenly seems to have weakened.

We could keep monitoring the market, and take a position only when the market suggests it. I always keep cautioning readers against bottom fishing.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 06 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we seem to be in a correction. Had it not been for the IT and FMCG sectors, the fall could have been worse. This sector rotation keeps the sentiment bullish from a longer term perspective. We may see an up day tomorrow and the day after, but the profit booking could drag the correction down later.

The healthier aspect of this correction is that when there is profit booking in one sector, others prop the Index. So the general mood remains buoyant.

We have had a good 28 calendar days up move for this last leg from 4 April. It means that the sentiment has been generally bullish for about one month. It is unrealistic to assume that the bullish sentiment for a month can be corrected in a day or two.

The new orange box is the level now to watch for. That is why we suggest that stops may be retained at a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 05 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Not much to change the mood. As was suggested last week, the market is still looking toppish for the short term, but is still not weak. The bulls would take heart from the fact that there still seems to be steam left in the market.

Stops may be retained at a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 02 May 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We did have a gap up open, as can be expected after a holiday, when the market tends to play catch up with the trend. The market does seem to be topping out for the short term. There are evident signs of profit booking. The profit booking is not as intense to turn the mood bearish. It is just plain profit booking.

As mentioned a few days back, if the Index does not violate 4971 on the downside, we could see a sizeable and extended bull run.

There seems no cause for bulls to panic. Only there seems to be sector rotation, and at times like this, we need to be a little choosy in picking stocks. Stops may be raised to a close below 4971.

The suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 25 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With the derivatives out of the way, the market came back on its track. The market does seem to be topping out for the short term. There are evident signs of profit booking. The profit booking is not as intense to turn the mood bearish. It is just plain profit booking.

As mentioned a few days back, if the Index does not violate 4971 on the downside, we could see a sizeable and extended bull run.

This expected correction may touch around the 4860 levels and that could be a good re-entry point. In such a case, stops may be retained at 4628.

At the beginning of this month, it was mentioned that the whole month of April could be a period of consolidation with relatively lesser volatility and steady trending. The market has indeed behaved true to book. In such a case, we see a cycle in time falling on 1 May 08. Since that date is a holiday, we could see the final signs of profit booking next week.

How deep down would it take the market? That remains to be seen. In any case, the suggestion to buy on dips still remains valid.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 24 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am really satisfied that readers of my musings could have protected themselves from the vagaries of the market.

As expected, the market was mildly weak, and volatile.

If the market is behaving as expected, then we could anticipate it to behave as we analyse it, in the future too.

I expect it to take real support around the 4860 levels around the end of this month, and then take its journey upwards. It could also be possible that it could take support at a higher level. In such a case, I would suggest alertness to be able to join the party when it just starts.

And as always suggested, keep our stops strict and intact.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, the Nifty seems to be topping out for the short term. The levels of the previous short term tops would not now into play, and could provide support.

From the longer term perspective, if the Nifty does not violate the previous swing high of 4971, then we could see much greater glory for the Nifty. If it does violate 4971, then it is expected that the rise may not be as rapid.

Now, a point which I want to forcefully make. These are my judgements based on the previous chart history. I could be wrong, and the market could turn bearish. In such a case, only trailing stops can protect our trades. Therefore, it is strongly suggested to keep trailing stops as each trader’s comfort level would dictate. So far there is no hint that the market could be bearish.

Tomorrow is the end of the derivatives cycle, which could contribute to some intraday volatility. Day traders could well stay away.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 22 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.



It has been a long time since I last wrote, but it really does not matter, as the market has been bullish as expected and the hedged positions could have been removed.

Carrying on from the last post, people may ask me … am I a wholesale bull. I would answer that with an unqualified yes.

From the way the last fortnight has shaped out it does seem that my suggestions of last fortnight are standing good. If things happen according to plan, then we may see a pause for this leg at around ~5440 levels. This coincides with the big black box which is looming overhead. Will the Nifty have enough strength to break through? That remains to be seen.

For the short term, the Nifty seems to be topping out presently, and we may have a few mild downside corrections. But the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.

As a bonus for the long absence, I give the suggested levels which traders could monitor either for profit booking or for supports.
5131~5182
5281
5441

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 11 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the down sloping trendline has been retested. The normal weekend profit booking did pull the index down a bit. On the whole the bulls should be satisfied as we have seen a normal bullish day.

The Index is still struggling to break out from the congestion zone, even though the sentiment is turning mildly bullish after this fortnight.

The suggested stops for yesterday have still held, and the short term trend still seems bullish.

I can only repeat myself on what I have been saying all week. I would still retain my declared stance for the market. I would wait to see the short term tops of ~4800, ~4900 and ~4980 to be unequivocally violated, and then declare myself as a wholesale bull. Till then I would remain a cautious hedged bull.

Short term traders may retain their stops at ~4627. Long term traders may also retain their stops at 4627.

Next week is going to be a very short trading week. We may see some heightened volatility. But the trend is still expected to remain bullish.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 10 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Another volatile intraday trading day. The high for today has hit the down sloping trendline bang on as can be seen from the chart. The previous bottom is still holding and we can see the extreme short term trendline inching up.

The suggested stops for yesterday have still held, and the short term trend still seems bullish.

From today’s price movement, it does seem that the market is pausing at the right places and behaving in a technically correct way. The efforts to turn to positive sentiment still seem on. If or when, the short term down sloping trendline is also violated to the upside, it would be a point in favour of the bulls.

It is expected that the whole of April will be a period of consolidation with more traders coming back to the market after some bullish confidence is restored.

I would still retain my declared stance for the market. I would wait to see the short term tops of ~4800, ~4900 and ~4980 to be unequivocally violated, and then declare myself as a wholesale bull. Till then I would remain a cautious hedged bull.

Short term traders may retain their stops at ~4627. Long term traders may also retain their stops at 4627.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 09 Apr 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Quite a volatile day on the intraday chart. The previous bottom is still holding and we can see the extreme short term trendline inching up.

The suggested stops for yesterday have still held.

Though the market has not done something spectacular, it is heartening to see that it is indeed making efforts to turn to positive sentiment. If the short term down sloping trendline is also violated to the upside, it would be a point in favour of the bulls.

It is expected that the whole of April will be a period of consolidation with more traders coming back to the market after some bullish confidence is restored.

I would still retain my declared stance for the market. I would wait to see the short term tops of ~4800, ~4900 and ~4980 to be unequivocally violated, and then declare myself as a wholesale bull. Till then I would remain a cautious hedged bull.

Short term traders may retain their stops at ~4627. Long term traders may also retain their stops at 4627.

Trade happy after planning your trade.