Nifty for 08 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested, we see a rise in the Index stocks, as a result of which, we see the Index rising. On the other hand, we do not see a convincing rise in the second rung stocks. Even the volumes of the index stocks are not as convincing as it should be in a trend reversal. It could mean that we are in the last leg of this bull run. The smaller players may not be convinced with this rise, and after a 800 to 1000 points, would start scrambling to get into the bull run, only to be left holding the baby at the next top.

The short term trend is confirmed as up. This uptrend has all the indications of a correction to the upside of the huge fall we have witnessed in the last two weeks. It really does not matter which phase of the market we are in, as long as we are able to capture the significant moves.

It seems from a lot of comments that my earlier calculation of a cycle in time on 9th February, has raised a lot of queries. Please appreciate that this is only a probable projection. Let us watch how the market approaches this cycle in time. If we do witness some significant event, we could make a judgement. As of now, since we had a change of trend on a few days before 9 Feb, we may see a short term top on 9, rather than a peak.

And as we know the market is a dynamic arena. We have to constantly keep adjusting to it. With the fresh information into the “computer” we get cycles in time on 15, 21 and 31 March.

And as I am fond of saying, trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Feb 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart of today suggests a consolidation pattern. According to our example of the bullish setup, this could be a perfect example. However, if you want my frank opinion, this could be a manipulation of the Index stocks to allow the sentiment to rise, and then offload non-Index stocks.

As was suggested earlier, we have seen a significant bottom on Tuesday. And from the chart it shows that there was resistance on a rising trendline. As a thumb rule, if we see support on a rising trendline, and another resistance on another rising trendline, we could expect that the short term trend is up.

For extremely active traders, the shorting opportunities could arrive within a couple of days. We were expecting a bounce and in fact, we did see a bounce back. Further, I had suggested earlier that we could have a change in trend on 9 March. It was expected that this date would allow us to have a major top. Now it seems that an uptrend could last till 9 March, and then it could make a significant top on that date.

This is my probable assessment. Trade it how you are comfortable. Always remember, trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It does not require a genius to suggest a trading plan when the market gaps down.

We are approaching our target date of 9 Mar where a change of trend was suggested to be expected. And since the trend is down as of now, we could see a mild retracement upwards. At this point in time, short term traders may wait for a bullish setup on the hourly charts to buy, and longer term traders could wait for the buying setup on the daily charts to buy.

For extremely active traders, the shorting opportunities could be ending within a couple of days. In fact, we could see a bounce back tomorrow. From all indications, we could see a significant bottom tomorrow. The reason being that when we see panics, big money is normally buying.

Till then, do not trade and be happy.