Nifty for 04 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am happy that the market has respected the levels suggested on Tuesday, 3 April. The short term trend is still up, and now will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

The short term trend will be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February. At the same time, I would like to sound a word of caution. The 3620 low has been too low for comfort. And we do not see any strong support coming at these levels too. Therefore, in my estimation, the upswing we see may not be very high. In fact, it may be capped at around 4170, in this phase.

No doubt, the long term trend is still up, but these gyrations of the market will kill a small trader. Only an investor can stand a chance.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Readers may find my statement ludicrous (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ludicrous) when I say that the short term trend is still up. When the market suffers a 5+% fall, it does not seem that the trend is still up. But the evidence is still suggesting it. We still have a higher top, higher bottom pattern on the charts. Later the index may turn out a consolidation pattern, which remains to be seen. This is our conclusion as on today. And the short term trend will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

It takes a lot of guts to buy when the market is tanking 5% and we do not know what the outlook will be tomorrow. That is where planning the trade comes into focus. Traders could still wait for dips to buy, using our guidelines for a bullish setup. Keeping appropriate stops and hedging will be a prudent idea.

The trend will also be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With Friday’s close, we have reached a significant cycle in time, which we have been referring to in my earlier posts. It certainly will be interesting to see how the Nifty reacts at this time cycle.

My anticipation is that Friday or Monday could show us a short term bottom, and we may see the up trend resuming hereafter. This uptrend may well continue till the middle of April with small dips, or course.

News driven events do have a significant short term effect. However, it is my feeling that the rate hike was already anticipated and could have already been discounted by the market. That could explain the 1000 point fall in the Bank Nifty in the last month or so.

As these are speculative conclusions, we must keep this information at the back of our minds and follow the collective wisdom of the market. And the collective market seems to be reflecting the trend to be up.

Plan and trade happy.