Nifty analysis for 22 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
The high of the Nifty is just 10 points away from our objective of 3570, mentioned in my analysis of 18 Sep 06.
Also as mentioned yesterday, bulls would need to adopt some more guts and withstand the bear onslaught. As expected, the bears tried to reach the 3500 levels stops, but today the bulls were stronger. The surprise today was the Bank Nifty, which corrected more than expected. Apart from that, everything still seems to be right on course. In all probability, if the 3570 levels are breached, then we could expect the 3610 level to be reached.
One thing which is noticeable is that the volumes on the Nifty futures are rising when the Index is falling, which should give comfort to bulls.
Please remember, the weekend normally tends to skew things slightly out of shape.

Nifty as on 21 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From some of the comments which I read, it does seem that folks have indeed made the right decisions, at the right time. The Nifty is fast approaching our objective mentioned in my analysis of 18 Sep 06.

http://dusant.blogspot.com/2006/09/nifty-analysis-for-18-sep-06.html

Also as mentioned yesterday, the bears were waiting for a decisive breakout with their stops. As soon as those stops were triggered, the market cooled off and returned to consolidation mode.

Now another game is going to be set up. The market will now probably try and chase the stops of the bulls. Those stops are going to be around the 3500 levels. Therefore, bulls will need to adopt some more guts and withstand that onslaught.

Although I do not pay much attention to fundamental information, from what news is filtering in, it does seem that Diwali is going to be bright.

Nifty Analysis for 20 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. The technical problem about the charts still does not seem to be resolved. The chart ... therefore ... is uploaded here.

http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=200906fibretraceandprojos6.png]

There is one thing which I abhor saying is “I told you so”. Trading is only a matter of planning a trade and then trading that plan. Yesterday, a trading plan was presented, suggesting that long positions could be initiated, if the hourly Nifty chart showed a higher top and higher bottom formation.

Today, the Nifty gave enough opportunity for going long. The first hourly candle engulfed yesterday's black candle body. The second was enclosed between the high and the low of the first, with a long lower shadow. The third again made a higher top and bottom.

What more does a trader need to go long?

We have seen some short term bears being trapped at the breakout of the H&S trendline. Some longer term bears would still be waiting for higher stop. On an extreme short term basis, the Nifty has made a lower swing bottom yesterday, and has not as yet made a higher swing top today. Technically, this should still be termed as a downside correction. However, a break above yesterday’s high could allow the Nifty make another consolidation pattern, like an expanding triangle.

Whatever the direction the market takes, one thing is sure. In volatile times likes this, the premiums of options tend to inflate. Therefore, selling options could turn out quite profitable, whatever direction we want to adopt.

Nifty Analysis for 19 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click here. Due to technical reasons, I am unable to upload the chart at this blog today.
Yesterday, it was suggested that the conventional indicators were showing negative divergence and there was a strong possibility that the Nifty could correct downward. The trigger seems to be the news of a hedge fund collapsing. These sorts of panic triggers are unavoidable in the market, and therefore, it was suggested that tight stops should be adhered to and a hedge be created at higher levels. This could also be termed as a failure of the pattern.
http://www.traderji.com/58968-post49.html
http://dusant.blogspot.com/2006/09/nifty-analysis-for-15-sep-06.html
In fact, those among us who have guts of steel could use this opportunity to create fresh longs. The only conditions being that the temptation of bottom fishing should be avoided at all costs, and to allow the Nifty to make a convincing higher top/higher bottom pivot on the hourly charts.
At this point, the bottom of the inverted head also assumes huge importance, as that should act as a support in case this bull run should continue.

Nifty Analysis for 18 Sep 06

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
The loose inverted head and shoulder pattern seems to have been completed. The Nifty today did make a higher top also. The conventional indicators are now showing some negative divergence. Therefore, there is a strong possibility that the Nifty could correct downward from here. The Nifty futures volumes seem to be drying up, primarily because of the lack of volatility. There has not been enough upward or downward movement to allow stops to be triggered, either of the bulls or the bears.
A breakout of the H&S gives us a logical target, somewhere in the region of 3610, but on the other hand, there is a Fibonacci Level which falls around the 3570 level. Let us see how much strength is exhibited by the Nifty and when it is achieved.