Nifty for 21 Feb 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today, 21 Feb, it does seem that the market is preparing itself to end its correction by tomorrow.

As mentioned in our analysis of 20 Feb, “It is quite possible that we may see this weakness continue into the last hours on Thursday, and then the market will push stops.” When a trading range contracts to tight levels, it is going to trigger stops, both for the bulls as well as the bears. The stops of the bulls could be run when the market penetrates the lower stops by just a bit, and then bounce back up. The stops of the bears could be triggered when the market moves higher.

Thursday is upon us.

After today’s price movement, the levels of 4060 to 4080 still are open. The market again seems to be testing this gap.

The short term resistances overhead at the 4130/4140 were tested today. In all probability, the short term bears would place their stops there. Longer term bears would probably be looking at 4170/4180.

As of now, the long term and intermediate trends are still up. The short term is down. The support levels at 4030/4040 and 3950/3970 become even more significant. If these levels are tested and penetrated, then we would need to rethink our strategy.

Till then, trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Feb 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The down move was significant today. A constant selling pressure, without very large volumes suggests that we are back in a downward correction mode.

The hiccup mentioned earlier seems to be upon us. It is quite possible that we may see this weakness continue into the last hours on Thursday, and then the market will push stops.

We continue to monitor the trading event of significant importance coming up on Thursday.

After today’s price movement, the levels of 4060 to 4080 still are open. The market seems to be testing this gap.

Further, short term resistances overhead are appearing at the 4130/4140 and at 4170/4180.

Let us wait and watch how the market shapes up this week. As of now, the long term and intermediate trends are still up. The short term is down. Which adds great significance to the support levels at 4030/4040 and 3950/3970. If these levels are tested and penetrated, then we would need to rethink our strategy.

Till then, trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Feb 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From a trading perspective, today was a non event. With a flat sideways movement on the Index.

The earlier target at 4170, which was providing support, has turned into a short term resistance. From expectations, it does seem that this short term resistance will be violated on the upside, in due course. When it would be, is a question of uncertainty. Simply because we have a trading event of significant importance coming up on Thursday.

The short term bottom of 14 Feb, also remains significant. So does the gap between 4060 and 4080.

From the behaviour of the Index, we could see the market remaining strong right till the first week of March.

It does not harm to remind readers to please consider trading with caution during the last week of February, due to the expiry of the derivatives settlement and the news flows about the budget.