Nifty for 14 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.” The market has indeed showed that it is supreme, and trapped the stops of bears, who were hoping that this would be the final frontier.

It is getting very dicey for a trader here. A huge gap up opening does not allow a positive close? It is something to ponder about. What it tells us that the market is still unsure of the direction. The probable direction is still bullish, and we may see some small downside.

In such an event, it can again be suggested that any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital. A short term stop could be a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.”

It is also true that the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.

For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is violated on the upside, and if the low of 4452 is not broken on the downside, then we can expect the short term trend to change to up. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting.

The projected downside target of around 4300 now looks like a low possibility. In any case, any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As we can see, for the last few trading sessions, the Nifty has moved in a tightly coiled range of about 100 points. When a trading range of 100 points in one day is normal, the market is telling us something. It is suggesting that it does not want to move fast now, but later, when it moves, the directional move could be explosive.

With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.

The short term trend is still down. As far as deciding about the short term trend is concerned, our levels of yesterday still stand. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, and if the low of 4452 is broken on the downside, then we can expect the trend to continue down. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

The projected downside target of around 4300 still stands. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 11 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term trend is down. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, then we can expect the trend to continue down. As of now, the Nifty seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

With some simple maths, we project a downside target of around 4300. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

A sharp eye may also be kept on the coloured zones which are historical support levels. As of now, the market is just making nervous traders even more jittery. With gap up and down opens, it does not allow a normal trader to settle down comfortably.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today’s down move may be attributed to the hype associated with the 9/11 landmark in history. As was expected, the trend was weak for the end of day analysis. However, due to the gap down, we saw a fantastic recovery for the day. The Nifty has reached a historic supply line again. It could be expected to receive resistance around those levels.

Going ahead, we could expect some more weak bulls to be shaken out in a correction lasting just a few days. Today, the longer term perspective may be viewed. The next objective lies between 4680~4690. In that case, the Index may well make a new historic high later. How much time it takes is anybody’s guess. However, I could hazard a guess for it to be around the expiration of this derivatives cycle.

It may be suggested to just start accumulating around the 4350~4400 level. We need to choose the sectors carefully as we see the IT sector being weaker, but the Banking sector stronger than normal.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term objective of the Nifty has indeed been achieved today. As per our time and price projection, it is just two days late.

It does seem that the mild weakness witnessed during the intraday session on Friday could continue for a few days next week.

The opportunity that bulls were waiting for seems to be coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market just refuses to give up of its gains. With today’s up day, the probability of the Nifty achieving its short term target of around 4533 seems even higher. It does seem that the market is correcting intraday. And not allowing traders to enter at lower levels. At a stage like this, we could only maintain caution, and not jump on the band wagon.

The bearish tri-star like candle pattern of yesterday has not been confirmed today.

It still feels that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Intraday volatility continues. On a daily basis, we do see a mild crack downwards. Will it continue? The probability is higher that we may go into a downside correction.

Today, both on the BSE and the NSE we have had uncertain candles three days in a row. The candle pattern is quite like a bearish tri-star, which suggests that we may have encountered a short term top today.

As of now, it does seem that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. The next cycle in time falls on 24 September. This falls on the derivatives expiry week. From the time gap, it is quite possible that we may see a short term bottom sometime in early or the middle of next week, and a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There seems to be barely any change from yesterday’s analysis. Today was a mildly down day, with intraday volatility.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today, both on the BSE and the NSE uncertain candles have registered again. As mentioned yesterday, we see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which is a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. The cycle in time mentioned earlier of 5 September is upon us.

The market could give bulls another opportunity to buy in the next few days. Readers could be prepared for it.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today’s candles, both on the BSE and the NSE are uncertain candles. We see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which incidentally is also a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. Earlier I had mentioned another cycle in time falling on 5 September.

Readers would now be itching to enter the bull run, afraid that it will run out of hand and they may not have an opportunity to buy at a later date. The market is imploring traders to buy at this time. And as we all know, we should buy when we want, and not when the market wants us to.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The weekend trading has shaken out some more bears. As can be seen, the Nifty has encountered a historical supply line. There could be mild penetration of that line and then we could witness a correction. Our cycle in time date of 30 August could still have its effect on the market.

As regular readers must know by this time, I dislike giving direction based calls. That places the trader in a mood of complacency. Instead it is always better to plan the trade and then execute it. At this point, the short term up move seems a little stretched. That should allow some profit booking to come in. The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the market did open hugely weak on Global cues. However, the market proved me wrong by taking a one way traffic lane upward, and taking out yesterday’s high. In such a case, the cycle in time on 30, i.e. tomorrow could turn out to be an intermediate high. Considering that tomorrow is an expiry for the derivatives cycle.

In that case, we could have a short term bottom on 5 September.

However, please keep in mind that these dates are purely time projections. And time projections do not make profits. The price does. Therefore, please keep in mind the price, and look ahead to what really happens on the time cycle projection dates.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been a long time. I am really gratified that the market respected our cycle in time of around 17~18 August, which was mentioned in my last post on 14 August. According to my cycle calculations, we have another event on 30 August. A kind friend informed me that the Dow is down 135 points, as of this moment when I am writing. In such a case, we could see some downside due to adverse sentiment. If we see a downside, then we could see an intermediate bottom on 30 August.

And, the next time cycle falls on 5 September. This could again show us a short term turning point. In any case, the pattern of higher tops and bottoms augers well for the bull. This may therefore be classified as a buy on dips situation.

The short term target derived from Fibonacci extensions is 16278 on the BSE and 4724 on the NSE. If such a target is achieved, then it is obvious that the market may make a new high.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a neutral day. The blue dotted supply line is still exerting its influence.

With some time based calculations, we are getting a cycle in time date around 17~18 August 07. It will be interesting to note what the Index does around that time frame. From the movement of today, it could possibly be weak for a couple of days, and then make a bottom for this correction around 17~18.

The possible zone where the Nifty could take support is around 4145~4178.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now look at about the 4145 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy and enjoy the Independence day holiday.

Nifty for 13 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested on Friday that the correction is still not over. From the pattern today, it does seem correct. The up move of the last two trading sessions does suggest that these 100 odd points are a correction.

Today’s move was fuelled by one pharma and the auto pack. But Tata Power was the major driver because of the news related to power. Had the technology pack participated, I would be comfortable in saying that this move is broad based.

This reinforces my above mentioned understanding of today’s up move. Since the major move is still up, it could be suggested for short term traders to possibly buy on dips with a strict stop. However, please keep in mind that the short term trend is still down, so buying could be done on deep down moves.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could remain cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested just yesterday that we have a short term target of 4238. Little did I realise that the market would tank straight through and achieve it within seconds of the opening bell.

A quick glance at the chart shows it like a battle field full of bombed crater holes. Everyday has been a gap open up or down. This type of volatility is dangerous to the health of small traders or investors. In such a situation, it is always advisable to stay away, rather than risk capital.

For the next few trading sessions the Nifty must avoid the grey band between 4210 and 4240. This may allow some recovery. This recovery could lull the senses of bull traders and draw them back into the market. That could turn out to be a mistake. Because I believe that this correction is still not over. The scenario which I foresee is a recovery back into the blue or yellow band. And then, a final shake out.

How deep this shakeout would be is anybody’s guess.

I have been wrong several times earlier, and I could be wrong once again. This brings us back to the importance of planning the trade.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 09 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The pattern on the chart suggests as of now, that the up move in the beginning of this week could be a reaction to the fall of the last two weeks. And as it seems inevitable that there should be a down move which would allow the pattern to complete.

As I have been mentioning for the past few days, the market moves up laboriously and tanks effortlessly. This suggests that the market is in a down move. Further, we notice that the market opens with a downside or upside gap, thus not allowing comfortable trading in the direction of the trend. Today, the market has moved in a huge trading range, missed the grey band and moved back into the yellow band.

From the way the market is behaving, it does seem that the pink zone will not provide enough support. According to the projection of this down move, we get a target of 4238.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, the gap up open was promptly met with selling at higher levels, which resulted in the Nifty moving down, very steadily during the day.

So far the Nifty has not shown any remarkable strength, even though we did see a gap up open. It could be a knee jerk reaction due to global cues, followed by profit booking at the rise. This suggests that the market is still not convinced about its new found strength, and this up move could purely be because the Nifty had lost around 60% of its last up move.

The short term trend could possibly change up. This suggestion would hold valid only if the Nifty moves above the yellow band. The level indicated would be 4430. It should also not violate 4270 on the downside. Therefore, we have a 160 points zone of uncertainty.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, investors could now be cautious about the 4270 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market constantly breaks downside targets, we re-evaluate the position. With revised calculations, we arrive at a short term target of 4234. The target of 4234 falls just within the grey band which I have been carrying for the past two months. Readers must have got tired of hearing this everyday, but the fact is that the bottom for today is another very significant bottom. If this bottom is broken, and if the grey band below it is violated, on a closing basis, then things could really get ugly for the investor.

The probabilities were higher for the Index to move back up, but even that has failed.

It is a reflection on the current weakness of the market that it took the index almost six weeks for the market to move up from the 4100 to 4650 regions. It has given up almost 60% of its gains in just two weeks.

Normally, we witness buying interest when the price gives up around 62% of gains. So we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, we would need to evaluate how strong the buying is to really decide whether the short term trend has indeed changed from down to up.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty did hit a rising line as was hoped for by bulls. So far support does seem to have come in.

It remains to be seen whether or not, this support will hold. The probability of it holding now seems high. I would use the high of 4429 as a benchmark to decide whether or not, the Nifty has enough strength to breakout upwards. Volumes are tepid at best, and the decider would be more buying interest in the shape of rising volumes. Trading does become difficult when the Index opens with an upside or downside gap, and can just rush through stop levels. This is one hazard which a trader needs to accept while trading. An investor may take things a little easier.

In such a scenario, a trader can hedge his positions by using options, which is a protective strategy.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Now, the last bottom of 4327 becomes significant, so stops may be placed at 4325.

Plan your trades and trade happy.