Nifty for 07 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term objective of the Nifty has indeed been achieved today. As per our time and price projection, it is just two days late.

It does seem that the mild weakness witnessed during the intraday session on Friday could continue for a few days next week.

The opportunity that bulls were waiting for seems to be coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market just refuses to give up of its gains. With today’s up day, the probability of the Nifty achieving its short term target of around 4533 seems even higher. It does seem that the market is correcting intraday. And not allowing traders to enter at lower levels. At a stage like this, we could only maintain caution, and not jump on the band wagon.

The bearish tri-star like candle pattern of yesterday has not been confirmed today.

It still feels that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Intraday volatility continues. On a daily basis, we do see a mild crack downwards. Will it continue? The probability is higher that we may go into a downside correction.

Today, both on the BSE and the NSE we have had uncertain candles three days in a row. The candle pattern is quite like a bearish tri-star, which suggests that we may have encountered a short term top today.

As of now, it does seem that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. The next cycle in time falls on 24 September. This falls on the derivatives expiry week. From the time gap, it is quite possible that we may see a short term bottom sometime in early or the middle of next week, and a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There seems to be barely any change from yesterday’s analysis. Today was a mildly down day, with intraday volatility.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today, both on the BSE and the NSE uncertain candles have registered again. As mentioned yesterday, we see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which is a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. The cycle in time mentioned earlier of 5 September is upon us.

The market could give bulls another opportunity to buy in the next few days. Readers could be prepared for it.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today’s candles, both on the BSE and the NSE are uncertain candles. We see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which incidentally is also a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. Earlier I had mentioned another cycle in time falling on 5 September.

Readers would now be itching to enter the bull run, afraid that it will run out of hand and they may not have an opportunity to buy at a later date. The market is imploring traders to buy at this time. And as we all know, we should buy when we want, and not when the market wants us to.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The weekend trading has shaken out some more bears. As can be seen, the Nifty has encountered a historical supply line. There could be mild penetration of that line and then we could witness a correction. Our cycle in time date of 30 August could still have its effect on the market.

As regular readers must know by this time, I dislike giving direction based calls. That places the trader in a mood of complacency. Instead it is always better to plan the trade and then execute it. At this point, the short term up move seems a little stretched. That should allow some profit booking to come in. The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the market did open hugely weak on Global cues. However, the market proved me wrong by taking a one way traffic lane upward, and taking out yesterday’s high. In such a case, the cycle in time on 30, i.e. tomorrow could turn out to be an intermediate high. Considering that tomorrow is an expiry for the derivatives cycle.

In that case, we could have a short term bottom on 5 September.

However, please keep in mind that these dates are purely time projections. And time projections do not make profits. The price does. Therefore, please keep in mind the price, and look ahead to what really happens on the time cycle projection dates.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been a long time. I am really gratified that the market respected our cycle in time of around 17~18 August, which was mentioned in my last post on 14 August. According to my cycle calculations, we have another event on 30 August. A kind friend informed me that the Dow is down 135 points, as of this moment when I am writing. In such a case, we could see some downside due to adverse sentiment. If we see a downside, then we could see an intermediate bottom on 30 August.

And, the next time cycle falls on 5 September. This could again show us a short term turning point. In any case, the pattern of higher tops and bottoms augers well for the bull. This may therefore be classified as a buy on dips situation.

The short term target derived from Fibonacci extensions is 16278 on the BSE and 4724 on the NSE. If such a target is achieved, then it is obvious that the market may make a new high.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a neutral day. The blue dotted supply line is still exerting its influence.

With some time based calculations, we are getting a cycle in time date around 17~18 August 07. It will be interesting to note what the Index does around that time frame. From the movement of today, it could possibly be weak for a couple of days, and then make a bottom for this correction around 17~18.

The possible zone where the Nifty could take support is around 4145~4178.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now look at about the 4145 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy and enjoy the Independence day holiday.

Nifty for 13 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested on Friday that the correction is still not over. From the pattern today, it does seem correct. The up move of the last two trading sessions does suggest that these 100 odd points are a correction.

Today’s move was fuelled by one pharma and the auto pack. But Tata Power was the major driver because of the news related to power. Had the technology pack participated, I would be comfortable in saying that this move is broad based.

This reinforces my above mentioned understanding of today’s up move. Since the major move is still up, it could be suggested for short term traders to possibly buy on dips with a strict stop. However, please keep in mind that the short term trend is still down, so buying could be done on deep down moves.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could remain cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested just yesterday that we have a short term target of 4238. Little did I realise that the market would tank straight through and achieve it within seconds of the opening bell.

A quick glance at the chart shows it like a battle field full of bombed crater holes. Everyday has been a gap open up or down. This type of volatility is dangerous to the health of small traders or investors. In such a situation, it is always advisable to stay away, rather than risk capital.

For the next few trading sessions the Nifty must avoid the grey band between 4210 and 4240. This may allow some recovery. This recovery could lull the senses of bull traders and draw them back into the market. That could turn out to be a mistake. Because I believe that this correction is still not over. The scenario which I foresee is a recovery back into the blue or yellow band. And then, a final shake out.

How deep this shakeout would be is anybody’s guess.

I have been wrong several times earlier, and I could be wrong once again. This brings us back to the importance of planning the trade.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 09 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The pattern on the chart suggests as of now, that the up move in the beginning of this week could be a reaction to the fall of the last two weeks. And as it seems inevitable that there should be a down move which would allow the pattern to complete.

As I have been mentioning for the past few days, the market moves up laboriously and tanks effortlessly. This suggests that the market is in a down move. Further, we notice that the market opens with a downside or upside gap, thus not allowing comfortable trading in the direction of the trend. Today, the market has moved in a huge trading range, missed the grey band and moved back into the yellow band.

From the way the market is behaving, it does seem that the pink zone will not provide enough support. According to the projection of this down move, we get a target of 4238.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, the gap up open was promptly met with selling at higher levels, which resulted in the Nifty moving down, very steadily during the day.

So far the Nifty has not shown any remarkable strength, even though we did see a gap up open. It could be a knee jerk reaction due to global cues, followed by profit booking at the rise. This suggests that the market is still not convinced about its new found strength, and this up move could purely be because the Nifty had lost around 60% of its last up move.

The short term trend could possibly change up. This suggestion would hold valid only if the Nifty moves above the yellow band. The level indicated would be 4430. It should also not violate 4270 on the downside. Therefore, we have a 160 points zone of uncertainty.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, investors could now be cautious about the 4270 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market constantly breaks downside targets, we re-evaluate the position. With revised calculations, we arrive at a short term target of 4234. The target of 4234 falls just within the grey band which I have been carrying for the past two months. Readers must have got tired of hearing this everyday, but the fact is that the bottom for today is another very significant bottom. If this bottom is broken, and if the grey band below it is violated, on a closing basis, then things could really get ugly for the investor.

The probabilities were higher for the Index to move back up, but even that has failed.

It is a reflection on the current weakness of the market that it took the index almost six weeks for the market to move up from the 4100 to 4650 regions. It has given up almost 60% of its gains in just two weeks.

Normally, we witness buying interest when the price gives up around 62% of gains. So we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, we would need to evaluate how strong the buying is to really decide whether the short term trend has indeed changed from down to up.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty did hit a rising line as was hoped for by bulls. So far support does seem to have come in.

It remains to be seen whether or not, this support will hold. The probability of it holding now seems high. I would use the high of 4429 as a benchmark to decide whether or not, the Nifty has enough strength to breakout upwards. Volumes are tepid at best, and the decider would be more buying interest in the shape of rising volumes. Trading does become difficult when the Index opens with an upside or downside gap, and can just rush through stop levels. This is one hazard which a trader needs to accept while trading. An investor may take things a little easier.

In such a scenario, a trader can hedge his positions by using options, which is a protective strategy.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Now, the last bottom of 4327 becomes significant, so stops may be placed at 4325.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 02 Aug 07

I have been pretty tied up the last days. But for whatever it is worth, here are the charts for the 1st and 2nd August.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next two days could be the moment of truth. These 100 points on the Nifty could decide the ultimate fate of the Nifty for the short term. So far we have had a classic buying setup, where there was a sharp news related dip, two higher bottoms, and subsequently, a higher top.

Normally, when the market brushes aside substantial news, it suggests strength. It also suggests that the market does not want prices to go lower, as it would mean putting in a lot of effort to rise again.

I am stating this due to a very simple fact. The market buys today, in the hope of selling later at higher prices. To buy, it needs a lot of money, and hence, a lot of effort. Selling is easy. We do not need any money to sell. That is the reason why we see that the market moves up slowly, but moves down very quickly.

So far, there is no evidence to suggest that the market has sold whatever it has bought earlier. That is the reason which leads me to believe that last week was not a major top. But it does not matter what I believe or don’t. What matters is that we keep our trading plan in place, and trade according to the plan.

We now have had a scenario of higher tops and subsequent dips, which have made higher bottoms. This suggests that we may see even higher price levels.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Of course, the last bottom of 4403 is significant, so stops may be placed at 4400.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that “we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.” The low for the Nifty was 4403. After that, it has indeed made a higher short term top. It was not a very convincing move. This makes the short term bottom of 4403 significant.

We have had a scenario of a higher top and a subsequent dip. High risk individuals could use this dip to buy. They could place their stops at 4400, for safety.

The Nifty has also rested on a short term support line, which adds to the importance of the bottom of 4403.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of yesterday … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on my blog, http://dusant.blogspot.com/.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I shudder to think of the effects this huge gap down fall would have on the accounts of highly leveraged traders.

After today’s price action, it becomes really difficult to take a directional call on the market. In fact, as mentioned yesterday, i.e. Thursday, “We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.” It is practically impossible to foresee a 200 odd point fall in a single day.

On Thursday, the market sidelined the bears. And today it has practically sidelined the bulls. It was mentioned yesterday, “As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.” However, today was not profit booking, but a panicked knee jerk reaction to the global cues.

My stop has been triggered, and would prefer to stay out for the moment. As I have stated earlier, the long term trend seems to still be up, and it is not suggested to have bearish thoughts.

With the fresh inputs available after Friday, it is normally observed that if a potential target is achieved in one day, we could look at lower levels. Considering the various levels between the low of 12 June 07, and the high of 24 July 07, we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.

From a longer term perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on the links on the right side of this page.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we did see a gap open and intraday fireworks, with a huge amount of bears stops being triggered in the last hour.

The job of the market was to sideline the bears temporarily, which it has done. As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.

Here is one classic example of how an intraday trader would really suffer from heart jitters, but if we step back and see the larger perspective, nothing really has changed. I would now raise my stop to a close below 4554.

From a larger perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.

Plan your trades and trade happy.