Nifty for 06 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Oh well, the market has proved me wrong once again. It was expected that the correction may continue for some more time, but I was wrong.

It is quite possible that this Friday rally has been induced by short covering by weak bears, who did not wish to carry open positions during the weekend.

With a new historic top being made, yet again, the pink support band gains more significance. In any case, the cycle in time falling on 17 July still remains, so it will be interesting to see what the market does around that day.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “we may have had a short term top today, or it may happen tomorrow. We could just have a correction till 17 July and then we may see the Nifty making its final hurrah.”

The pattern is still one of correction, and not a final sell off. Let us wait and watch if the market respects the cycle in time of 17 July. Mind you, it is only a projection, and it is not a certainty that we would see a short term bottom on 17 July. The market may move up before that too.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

How boring; another bullish day, again.

We may have had a short term top today, or it may happen tomorrow. We could just have a correction till 17 July and then we may see the Nifty making its final hurrah.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

At this point in time we can only repeat our prayer of caution … Now that trades have gone our way, it is suggested to maintain stops to lock in profit. The stops are purely depending on the time frame which the readers trades, and their comfort levels.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Like yesterday, the graph says it all, again.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Now that trades have gone our way, it is suggested to maintain stops to lock in profit. The stops are purely depending on the time frame which the readers trade, and their comfort levels.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 02 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Like yesterday, the graph says it all.

There seems to be nothing more to add, when our bullish stance has been vindicated.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As suggested yesterday, “the probability still remains upwards.”

And the graph says it all.

We had suggested too that “probabilities can go wrong at times, …. therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious. Strict stops may be adhered to. Those among us who are trading the derivatives market may hedge their positions.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am very surprised at today’s flat movement. Though we did see intraday volatility, there was hardly any movement on the daily chart. When volatility on the daily chart squeezes to such tight levels, we tend to see an explosive move either way.

Yesterday, it was suggested, “Tomorrow by mid day it is quite probable that we witness a short term bottom, and then a sharp rise up.” We were wrong on the timing but the sharp rise did take place.

The probability still remains upwards. However, probabilities can go wrong at times, as many readers may have experienced. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious. Strict stops may be adhered to. Those among us who are trading the derivatives market may hedge their positions.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When we step back and view the daily chart, it was a boring day, with hardly any movement. However, if we close in, we see extreme volatility, which is liable to scare traders and trigger their stops. That is exactly what the market wants to do.

As was suggested yesterday, 26 June, we witness volatility. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious.

I have added two zones for short term traders to be aware of. Tomorrow by mid day it is quite probable that we witness a short term bottom, and then a sharp rise up. We have three support zones since the last fortnight’s up move. Since the range is limited, we could witness bounces from any of these zones.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been quite some time from my last post. However, so far, the market is still respecting the bullish sentiment.

Yesterday, a correction was expected but did not happen. In such an event, now we may be still holding our long positions.

Today, the Index has made another short term high.

We see quite some churning going on. Banks, which had been exceptionally strong in the last week have been sideways. IT stocks have been taking a beating. Metals have been strong. To make things short, there could be a good churn going ahead. This could contribute to the volatility in the markets.

I have also drawn up cycles in time from various historical highs and lows. This week we have several cycles falling together between today and 8 July. It is normally noticed that when such cycles in time fall in a tight cluster, we witness volatility. Therefore, it is suggested to be very cautious.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As of today, the short term trend is still holding as if poised to break up. On the hourly chart, it has violated the previous top of 4164 formed on 12 June. It has held above the previous bottom of 4100, also formed on 12 June.

Till today, we could label 12 June as a sell off day with a bounce. However, this time, the Nifty is not showing as much strength as it did earlier on bounces. 4133 could be watched carefully for a possible bounce back in the upward direction. Since there are quite a few news based events lined up, we could possibly see a lot of volatility.

In any case, according to the technicals, I am still convinced that the trend could resume in the upward direction. Another level to watch out for would be 4103, which is the previous swing low of 13 June after 4100. Since both these events are pretty close to one another, we could again see a retest.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As explained yesterday, we continue to label the intermediate trend to be down.

For the short term trend to reverse, the levels for the Nifty are a breakout on the upside of 4164 and not violating 4100 on the downside.

For the intermediate term trend to reverse to up, we need a breakout on the upside of 4206, and the Nifty should not cross 4100 on the downside.

Continue to wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy.

I still maintain that within a day or two we may see a short term reversal. Whether it is strong enough to change the intermediate trend remains to be seen.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As has been suggested, earlier, the historic rising trendline has been tested and violated. There was a sharp bounce from those levels today. This goes to confirm the validity and the importance of this support zone.

If the bottom of today at 4100 is not held, then we could continue to see some more weakness going ahead. Because the earlier bottoms have been violated on the hourly chart, we also label the intermediate trend to be down.

For the intermediate term trend to reverse to up, we need a breakout on the upside of 4206, and the Nifty should not cross 4100 on the downside.

Continue to wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy.

Bulls could take heart from the fact that on the daily charts, the intermediate trend to be down is at 3980. This is just some points away. Which could happen in a day or two.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 08 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all. The Nifty is still hovering around the support zone. We also see it testing the lower rising trendline, which has been tested several times historically. The short term trend is still down. The intermediate term trend is now showing signs of being vulnerable. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. The long term trend is still up.

As suggested again and again, wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy. The levels for Monday could be, when the Nifty violates 4196 on the upside, and then does not violate 4128 on the downside.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term trend is still down. The intermediate term trend is still up. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. If we look at the daily chart, we have to follow the same principle. The long term trend is still up.

Today, the Nifty has re-tested and confirmed a support zone. As was suggested yesterday, we did see a gap down opening, in the first hours of trading. We also did see some buying support coming in, by the way of short covering.

As suggested yesterday, wait for a confirmation of the end of the short term downtrend, and then readers could buy. This would be tomorrow, when the Nifty violates 4230 on the upside, and then does not violate 4161 on the downside.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Index has surprised me by its sharp downward move. The tight movement of the last few trading sessions was suggesting a sharp move. However, the direction was unanticipated. But then, that is what stops are for.

Please take a look at the hourly chart. The red circles are the intermediate bottoms. The blue circles are the short term bottoms.

After today’s action, the short term trend is down. The intermediate term trend is still up. Please remember, this is on the hourly chart. If we look at the daily chart, we have to follow the same principle.

And in any case, the long term trend is still up.

Today, the Nifty has rested on a support zone. With the hugely negative sentiment, we may see some follow up selling tomorrow too, in the first hours of trading. We may then see some buying support coming in, by the way of short covering.

Please do not assume anything and do not try bottom fishing. Allow the index to confirm the support at whatever level it chooses, and then buy.

Therefore, please revisit the link on my blog for the bullish set up. As of now, shorting could be hazardous. Here is the link for convenience. http://dusant.blogspot.com/2007/01/nifty-for-11-jan-07.html

The next short term cycle in time falls on June 11. So we may see this downtrend continue till then.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty is continuing its consolidation pattern. We still have a higher bottoms scenario in place. The bounce for today seems very convincing. However, the Nifty is moving in a very tight range over the last few trading sessions. This is like a spring being coiled.

Which way will it jump? The probability remains up. Today’s bounce is accompanied with slightly better volumes. Which leads me to believe that the direction could continue up. That means we can still buy on dips. The crucial test will be 4140, as has been mentioned several times earlier too.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 01 Jun 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty has again proved the psychological supply line true. It really does not matter as of now. The market still seems to be in bullish mode. We also see a rising support line. The short term support may be tested. If it breaks the rising support, we have to do a rethink, depending on the technical position as of then.

Till then it is suggested to continue to maintain a bullish frame of mind.

The Index is continuing a well defined consolidation pattern.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 31 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I hate to say, I told you so. But the market has proved this humble analyst correct. And also proved how media hype can affect the sentiment on certain days.

Going ahead, the Index is showing a consolidation pattern. The psychological supply line still is bothering the market. But if this breaks, then we will have a no holds barred bull market. This is not a trading suggestion but a suggestion to plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, “the chart also shows a long term psychological supply line which is extending short term resistance. Short term traders could do well by raising their stop to 4240, which is slightly below the previous historic peak.” The supply line seems to have had its effect today. There is nothing in today’s chart which suggests panic.

In fact, it was the media which was hyping the Shanghai effect. Whereas, if we just step back in time, we will see how the Shanghai Index has outperformed the Indian bourses. Here are some comparative charts, courtesy Yahoo!.

As usual, please right click on the charts, and open in a new window.

Here is a three month comparison, where the Shanghai Index is up in the high 55% region, whereas the Nifty has moved less than 20%.

Now take a look at the six months comparison. As they say, one picture is worth a thousand words.








But wait a moment, take a look at the next chart, over one year.

A whopping 150+%. And the media hypes a six percent fall.

Had it not been for the Capital Goods and the Consumer Durables sectors, the effect on the Indices would have been worse. Longer term traders could still maintain 4140 as their stop. The derivatives expiry will contribute to volatility, so partial hedging also may be advisable. Short term traders may decide their own level of comfort for absorbing a loss, but as oft repeated, a stop is a must.
Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 May 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today’s chart shows a steady bullish action, where there has been steady buying, keeping the prices moving higher. This establishes a wide 50 point support range for the short term.

If this support is tested and holds, then we could see continued buying support and historic highs being made on a regular basis.

The chart also shows a long term psychological supply line which is extending short term resistance. Short term traders could do well by raising their stop to 4240, which is slightly below the previous historic peak.

Longer term traders could still maintain 4140 as their stop. The derivatives expiry will contribute to volatility, so partial hedging also may be advisable.

Plan your trades and trade happy.