Nifty for 25 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The indices continue in the short term bullish pattern. For those among us who have bought, the previous bottom of 5000 becomes important.

As far as the pattern goes, it seems that the rise from ~4450 to 5400 is the upwards correction for the ~1900 points fall in just a fortnight. Therefore, in all probability, we may have another short term down swing. It is also anticipated that the severity of the next downswing may not be as intense as the last week’s.

In such a case, we could use dips to buy.

Slightly longer term traders could continue to keenly watch 4890, and long term traders could monitor the last frontier 4448. I know that the ranges are large, but then it is not everyday, that the indices make a ~10% drop or a ~5% recovery.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

2008 Republic Day Greetings

Nifty for 24 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

For prudent traders, we just need to look at the chart. The true deciders of the long term trend would be the levels marked on the chart. The top of 5350 and the bottom of 4450.

Traders with deep memories would be equating this crash to the 17 May 2004 crash. The bounce was equally sharp. The market meandered around for almost a month, and then resumed its upward journey.

However, it is not necessary that the same pattern would be repeated again, but the probability is high. A 900 point difference between the trend deciding levels are enough to unnerve even the best of traders. It is human psychology to buy when the prices suddenly start looking cheap. It is just two weeks and we have seen a 1900 points fall.

As of now, the indices have made a short term bullish pattern. It does make sense to buy at this point. But short term traders could work with tight stops. A drop below 4495 should send out warning signals for short term traders.

Slightly longer term traders could keenly watch 4890, and long term traders could monitor the last frontier 4448. I know that the ranges are large, but then it is not everyday, that the indices make a ~10% drop or a ~5% recovery.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 23 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the Nifty has sliced through several historic supports. The markets are reacting totally on news based items, emanating from the USA. Which is totally logical.

Braver traders would be bottom fishing. For the time being, it does seem that the negative sentiment has been leeched out to some extent. From the chart, it does seem that the Nifty has made a short term bullish formation.

It is my feeling that the Nifty is retracing part of its losses. In other words, this up move of the last few days is just an upwards correction to the fall. However, I may be wrong.

When the short term trend runs contrary to the main trend, volatility is only natural. To avoid getting burns in the pocket, it is suggested to take buy positions, but hedging would be a prudent course of action.

As of now, we may use the last bottom as a benchmark. 4440 on the Nifty would be a decider.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 21 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart needs no commentary. The worldwide sweeping negative sentiment cannot be insulated from the Indian Markets.

If we expect the Nifty to take support at previous support levels, think again. We cannot expect to stop a running train with a feather. It was suggested yesterday that we could short on rises. However, the market did not give adequate opportunity to do even that.

The short term trend is firmly down. The intermediate trend has also moved down. The long term trend also is in danger of turning down. Therefore, take care.

I can only repeat this statement.

Let the negative sentiment be weaned out of the system and then think of buying again. Please wait for a short term bullish formation and then take a risk for buying. As we know very well, bottom fishing burns.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 18 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As we can see the Index is relentlessly slicing through all the supports. If it carries on further like this, then we may see the intermediate term trend turn down too.

The flip side is that the fall is accompanied with very low volumes. Therefore, as soon as some buying interest comes in we are likely to see a good bounce back up. Till we see such a bounce, and a short term bullish pattern, it is suggested to stay out.

Those among us with slightly shorter term horizons may use a rise to short, keeping tight stops. Any move which is against the trend is generally volatile, and we may find ourselves on the wrong side of the trade.

In volatility, it is always prudent to hedge positions. We have a cycle in time falling during the weekend. Let us see what it brings.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 17 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that the Nifty may encounter resistance around the earlier zone. The interplay between the support and the resistance will now determine the future of the Nifty. In fact the Nifty has made a short term bullish formation, but fell back sharply from the high of the day. If the Nifty is able to break 6015 towards the upside, and does not violate 5875, then we could assume that the short term trend has reversed to up.

Going ahead, it is expected that the Index could remain flat to weak for Friday and even Monday, and then consolidate on this short term bullish formation.

I can only repeat yesterday’s statement. Let the negative sentiment be weaned out of the system and then think of buying again. Please wait for a short term bullish formation and then take a risk for buying. As we know very well, bottom fishing burns.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 16 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On today’s chart, we see two aspects, one hugely bearish, and the other, a little encouraging for the bulls. The bearish part is the gap down opening, and the encouragement for the bulls is the bounce from a previous support/resistance level.

Our stop of 6110 has been triggered. In such a case we could be out of the market. The huge gap down opening seems to have been triggered by the negative sentiment worldwide.

Further, the Nifty has also made a short term bearish formation.

Therefore, because the pink support zone box has been violated convincingly, we must assume that this support zone will now offer huge resistance, if and when the Nifty tries its move up. Going ahead, it is expected that the Index could remain weak for another day or so, and then make a short term bullish formation.

Let the negative sentiment be weaned out of the system and then think of buying again. Please wait for a short term bullish formation and then take a risk for buying. As we know very well, bottom fishing burns.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 14 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the chart pattern, it does seem that the Nifty is attempting to make a short term bullish pattern. In that case, it could continue its secular upward move soon.

Traders could take the risk of buying now, and place a stop at 6100. The short term uptrend would be confirmed if the Nifty moves above 6245 and does not violate 6100.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 11 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday ... “Tomorrow being a weekend, we may see support coming in around the 5900 levels, and then short covering may allow the Nifty to recover quickly. The Bank Nifty still indicates to be among the stronger sectors.” The recovery in the Index was largely contributed to by the Banking sector.

Well … the 5900 levels were not achieved but we did come 100 points near it. After today, the questions arises … How do we trade this?

I simple glance at the chart will show us that the short term price is moving down more than it is moving up. On the other hand, if we step back, we still see that the previous bottom of 6060 has not been violated. At this point in time, it is apparent that this is a short term downside move within the secular upside move.

As suggested earlier, today’s upwards retracement could be due to short covering. Thus we could anticipate one more down move. If, however, the Nifty moves higher than 6350, it would mean that the correction is over, and the Nifty has resumed its upward secular trend.

It is also true that the earnings announcements will motivate knee jerk reactions, thereby increasing intra day volatility. Therefore, it would be a good idea to work with hedging.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 10 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

According to the analysis yesterday, it was suggested that the market is readying to correct. And it does seem that the correction has started. The cycle in time mentioned earlier was on 13 January. It does seem that the market has jumped the gun by a few days.

Maybe readers would get tired of reading the same words again and again. However, it does seem appropriate as a reminder, that we are in a long term bull market, and we would see many short and intermediate term moves counter to the main trend. These dips may be used to buy in.

Tomorrow being a weekend, we may see support coming in around the 5900 levels, and then short covering may allow the Nifty to recover quickly. The Bank Nifty still indicates to be among the stronger sectors.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 09 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a neither here nor there day. In fact, the Sensex had made a new historic high, but on the other hand, the Nifty did not.

When the market itself is uncertain, it is better to be defensive rather than offensive. Therefore it would be prudent to stay long while maintaining the stop at a closing below 6220, as suggested yesterday.

The overall profit booking seems to have subdued as of now. There has been a major decline in the totally traded volumes on both the exchanges. Which also suggests the uncertainty of the market.

Status Quo.

On the last note ... India is not US, and US is not India. Knee jerk reactions between the USA and India markets will happen on a day to day basis.

I urge readers to look at the long term picture.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 08 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The potential target zone which I have been carrying for the last few days seems just around the corner. Is it going to be a case of so near yet so far?

Today has been a classic case of overall profit booking on most sectors while the IT sector has witnessed buying interest, which is propping up the Index. Today’s move also validates the support zone which has been carried on the earlier charts. Even though today was a weak day, it still does not show a short term bearish bias on the Index. Therefore it would be prudent to stay long with a stop at a closing below 6220.

However, due to the overall profit booking mood, it does seem that we may see a downside correction for a few days. We notice that during the last three months, all the corrections have been shorter in nature than the earlier ones. It may be expected that this overall trend continues. However, please do not initiate any trades on assumptions but on cold hard facts. Look out for a short term bullish pattern before initiating any long trades.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 07 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The previous high of ~6200 and the second congestion around that zone now seem to be lending a supporting hand to the Nifty.

In spite of today’s weak opening, that seems to have held out. Therefore, it is logical to assume that this trend should continue. In such a case, this would also be an ideal place to insert a trailing stop, with a close below 6200.

As mentioned earlier, it is always advisable to stay with winning sectors rather than hope that the losing sectors would turn up. There are signs of profit booking showing. That is the reason why we are witnessing higher than usual intraday volatility. It may be a good idea to maintain stops for the present time. Since the uptrend is so strong, shorting seems out of the question as of now.

We are also seeing a cycle in time around 13 January. It is possible that the Nifty may make a decisive move around that date.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 04 Jan 08

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

On the last post of the last year, I had mentioned that the Nifty may achieve just 6245. However, as is apparent on the chart, it paused very slightly on that level and then just rushed through.

In any case, it is still hovering around that 6245 level. We see huge sector rotation happening. The Bank Nifty was correcting in a small way today. The CNXIT index is truly weak, while other sectors were pushing the Index up to new heights.

Mainly led by the Metals and the Oil and Gas sectors. The manner in which the Index has shot up today suggests that the next range of targets is not far away. Yet, at this stage, I would inject a word of caution. The Index is showing greater than normal volatility. The reason for this seems the profit booking is on in various sectors. This could burn a few holes in short term trader’s pockets.

On the other hand, from a really longer term perspective, if this rising triangle breaks out, the sky is the limit for the Nifty. Well not exactly the sky, but we could see the 8000 mark on the Index.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 31 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been quite some time since I last posted. In my last post, it was suggested the market could make a short term top due to the cluster of time cycle between 13 to 16 December. It did.

It was also suggested that an up and down roller coaster could continue till 21 December. It did.

Also, as was suggested, that the “warehousing fever” could start around the last week of this month. It did.

It is reward enough for this humble analyst that readers could have made opportune exits and then re-entries based on my earlier suggestions. Looking ahead, the market is pausing at a previous target which provided resistance earlier too.

The market is now poised delicately. It does seem that the previous top will be broken. How far will it break? This time I do not anticipate a large margin. The anticipated level it could achieve is 6245. After that we could see a correction. Be on guard.

Have a good year ahead. Not a greedy one.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 13 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we are approaching a cluster of time cycle between 13 to 16 December. It does seem that the market has made a short term top today.

This up and down roller coaster could continue till 21 December.

From a trading perspective, the trailing stop is marked out on the chart. This could be used by readers to lock in profits. This is not an invitation to short. As was suggested some time earlier, let us learn to trade with the trend. Normally at this time of the year, the big players are planning on taking their Christmas vacation.

This leaves markets all over the world, vulnerable to manipulation on small volumes. Therefore, it may be advisable to sit on the sidelines till the “warehousing” fever starts, where our local players begin to accumulate stocks in the anticipation that the FIIs would start their activities after the New Year.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 12 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, there was some panic buttons hit on the open, with a gap down opening. However, the market was resilient enough to recover right from the word go, and has hit a short term objective which we have been seeing on my charts for a long time.

When a mathematical objective is achieved, it is logical to seek the next probable objective. That falls around the 6400 to 6450 levels. The time cycle of 13 to 16 December is just around the corner. Therefore, we as traders should remain on guard for some volatility.

Maybe … the market may make a short term top around these dates.

The Nifty still does not seem to have peaked. We could retain our long term bullish outlook, and it may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 11 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested precisely a week back that the market is waiting for the news based event viz. the expected rate cut in the USA. And during this week, the market is playing itself out, discounting the expected event. When the news comes in, we can expect one of two things.

The rate cut happens.

The rate cut does not happen.

If the rate cut happens, the market has already expected it and has already factored that expectation in the price. In that case, it will be business as usual. We can expect some profit booking to the “expected” news.

However, if it does not happen, then we can expect some panic buttons to be hit. In such a scenario, it is always advisable to keep tight stops.

It was also suggested last week that …. “we have a short term time cycle falling tomorrow i.e. 5 December. A longer term cycle falls between 13 and 16 December. Let us wait and watch and see what the Index does on these days”.

Maybe … the market may make a short term top around these dates.

The last word. The Nifty still does not seem to have peaked. In such a case, we could retain our long term bullish outlook, and it may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trade happy after planning your trade.

Nifty for 04 Dec 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Not much needs to be said of yesterday’s chart. It has broken out from the yellow zone.

It is a sign of bullishness which we have discussed since a fortnight.

Today the Nifty has showed some hesitation at a psychological level which was an earlier target level. The market is hesitating for a very simple news driven event. The rate cut to be announced on 11 December in the USA.

Till then, it is expected that the market could meander a little aimlessly. In any case, the direction is expected to remain upwards. For bullish positions, the trading stop could be suggested at 5600. However, the yellow zone which has been applying resistance earlier could be expected to give a short term support. And may be pierced slightly on the downside.

There is speculation also that the BIG players are buying the Nifty futures and selling stocks. Ultimately, it all boils down to one thing. The tail can wag the dog for a short period. In the final countdown, the dog owns the tail.

We have a short term time cycle falling tomorrow i.e. 5 December. A longer term cycle falls between 13 and 16 December. Let us wait and watch and see what the Index does on these days.

Trade happy after planning your trade.