Nifty for 09 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The pattern on the chart suggests as of now, that the up move in the beginning of this week could be a reaction to the fall of the last two weeks. And as it seems inevitable that there should be a down move which would allow the pattern to complete.

As I have been mentioning for the past few days, the market moves up laboriously and tanks effortlessly. This suggests that the market is in a down move. Further, we notice that the market opens with a downside or upside gap, thus not allowing comfortable trading in the direction of the trend. Today, the market has moved in a huge trading range, missed the grey band and moved back into the yellow band.

From the way the market is behaving, it does seem that the pink zone will not provide enough support. According to the projection of this down move, we get a target of 4238.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, the gap up open was promptly met with selling at higher levels, which resulted in the Nifty moving down, very steadily during the day.

So far the Nifty has not shown any remarkable strength, even though we did see a gap up open. It could be a knee jerk reaction due to global cues, followed by profit booking at the rise. This suggests that the market is still not convinced about its new found strength, and this up move could purely be because the Nifty had lost around 60% of its last up move.

The short term trend could possibly change up. This suggestion would hold valid only if the Nifty moves above the yellow band. The level indicated would be 4430. It should also not violate 4270 on the downside. Therefore, we have a 160 points zone of uncertainty.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, investors could now be cautious about the 4270 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market constantly breaks downside targets, we re-evaluate the position. With revised calculations, we arrive at a short term target of 4234. The target of 4234 falls just within the grey band which I have been carrying for the past two months. Readers must have got tired of hearing this everyday, but the fact is that the bottom for today is another very significant bottom. If this bottom is broken, and if the grey band below it is violated, on a closing basis, then things could really get ugly for the investor.

The probabilities were higher for the Index to move back up, but even that has failed.

It is a reflection on the current weakness of the market that it took the index almost six weeks for the market to move up from the 4100 to 4650 regions. It has given up almost 60% of its gains in just two weeks.

Normally, we witness buying interest when the price gives up around 62% of gains. So we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, we would need to evaluate how strong the buying is to really decide whether the short term trend has indeed changed from down to up.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty did hit a rising line as was hoped for by bulls. So far support does seem to have come in.

It remains to be seen whether or not, this support will hold. The probability of it holding now seems high. I would use the high of 4429 as a benchmark to decide whether or not, the Nifty has enough strength to breakout upwards. Volumes are tepid at best, and the decider would be more buying interest in the shape of rising volumes. Trading does become difficult when the Index opens with an upside or downside gap, and can just rush through stop levels. This is one hazard which a trader needs to accept while trading. An investor may take things a little easier.

In such a scenario, a trader can hedge his positions by using options, which is a protective strategy.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Now, the last bottom of 4327 becomes significant, so stops may be placed at 4325.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 02 Aug 07

I have been pretty tied up the last days. But for whatever it is worth, here are the charts for the 1st and 2nd August.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next two days could be the moment of truth. These 100 points on the Nifty could decide the ultimate fate of the Nifty for the short term. So far we have had a classic buying setup, where there was a sharp news related dip, two higher bottoms, and subsequently, a higher top.

Normally, when the market brushes aside substantial news, it suggests strength. It also suggests that the market does not want prices to go lower, as it would mean putting in a lot of effort to rise again.

I am stating this due to a very simple fact. The market buys today, in the hope of selling later at higher prices. To buy, it needs a lot of money, and hence, a lot of effort. Selling is easy. We do not need any money to sell. That is the reason why we see that the market moves up slowly, but moves down very quickly.

So far, there is no evidence to suggest that the market has sold whatever it has bought earlier. That is the reason which leads me to believe that last week was not a major top. But it does not matter what I believe or don’t. What matters is that we keep our trading plan in place, and trade according to the plan.

We now have had a scenario of higher tops and subsequent dips, which have made higher bottoms. This suggests that we may see even higher price levels.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Of course, the last bottom of 4403 is significant, so stops may be placed at 4400.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that “we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.” The low for the Nifty was 4403. After that, it has indeed made a higher short term top. It was not a very convincing move. This makes the short term bottom of 4403 significant.

We have had a scenario of a higher top and a subsequent dip. High risk individuals could use this dip to buy. They could place their stops at 4400, for safety.

The Nifty has also rested on a short term support line, which adds to the importance of the bottom of 4403.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of yesterday … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on my blog, http://dusant.blogspot.com/.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I shudder to think of the effects this huge gap down fall would have on the accounts of highly leveraged traders.

After today’s price action, it becomes really difficult to take a directional call on the market. In fact, as mentioned yesterday, i.e. Thursday, “We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.” It is practically impossible to foresee a 200 odd point fall in a single day.

On Thursday, the market sidelined the bears. And today it has practically sidelined the bulls. It was mentioned yesterday, “As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.” However, today was not profit booking, but a panicked knee jerk reaction to the global cues.

My stop has been triggered, and would prefer to stay out for the moment. As I have stated earlier, the long term trend seems to still be up, and it is not suggested to have bearish thoughts.

With the fresh inputs available after Friday, it is normally observed that if a potential target is achieved in one day, we could look at lower levels. Considering the various levels between the low of 12 June 07, and the high of 24 July 07, we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.

From a longer term perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on the links on the right side of this page.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we did see a gap open and intraday fireworks, with a huge amount of bears stops being triggered in the last hour.

The job of the market was to sideline the bears temporarily, which it has done. As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.

Here is one classic example of how an intraday trader would really suffer from heart jitters, but if we step back and see the larger perspective, nothing really has changed. I would now raise my stop to a close below 4554.

From a larger perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 25 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the much awaited correction coming? Well, I do not have a crystal ball to gaze into the future. But here is what I could do.

I could maintain my stop for long positions at a close below 4547. Tomorrow being the expiry of the derivatives cycle, we could see some dramatics, with a large opening gap and last minute stops being run. In fact, if we do see weakness, we quite possibly may have the short term trend turning down.

When the long term trend is up, and the short term trend turns down, it presents a possibly ideal opportunity to buy. Timing the buy becomes important in this scenario. I suspect that we may have a short term bearish setup, as explained on my blog. Here is the link once again. Right Click here and open in new window

From a larger perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, we may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Small steps. Large Steps. It all depends on how you look at it. The last month has shown the Nifty taking small steps right from the 4300 levels, towards its ultimate destination. Where is the correction? … people ask? The hourly chart shows lots of corrections, even though the daily chart would be one smooth ride.

Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term weakness of Friday was brushed aside. The “hoped for” weakness did not materialise. It does seem that the market does not want new bulls to enter at lower levels.

The Nifty has broken out from yet another price projection level, like a hurdler on steroids.

The totally traded volumes are not too strong on both the bourses. It reflects the lack of conviction of the market of this rise. Further, it is noticed that during the last fortnight or so, there has been profit booking in quite a lot of stocks. It may be assumed that there has been interest mainly in the Index stocks. Further it could also be attributed to pre-earning season jitters.

All said, we could see a surge back into the lower rung stocks at a later date.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Two things could have contributed to the weakness on Friday. One is the weekend factor. The second is that there seemed an extra dose of exuberance at the opening. This bullish enthusiasm made the Index open with an upside gap. However, the gap was closed with a couple of hours.

It is has also tested the supply line, which was mentioned on Thursday. It was also mentioned ... "So very simply, bulls should remain alert. With the weekend around the corner, there again would be some volatility." On an intraday perspective we may have a 50 odd point downside. This could be used to buy in.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Well, at last the Nifty has hit a bang on target.

It is also approaching a long tested supply line. So very simply, bulls should remain alert. With the weekend around the corner, there again would be some volatility. This is the time when our slogan, to plan trades, will work.

As was suggested on Tuesday, “it still does not seem that we could see a significant top here.”

Technically the position now changes to buy on dips. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions. Till then, only patience may be suggested.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Has the Nifty missed its target by a whisker? As of the end of today, it does look like it.

As suggested earlier, we did see a roadblock around the 4550 to 4602 range. Also we have encountered a cycle in time. What the effect it would have still remains to be seen. The time cycle has shown its effect, with a 50 point correction.

It still does not seem that we could see a significant top here. The main trend is still hugely bullish, and it is not suggested to have a bearish outlook.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions. The technical status to buy on dips may arise in a few days. Till then, only patience may be suggested.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Monday has been a more normal bullish day when compared to Friday.

As mentioned on my analysis for Friday, we could see a roadblock around the 4550 to 4602 range. Also we are falling on a cycle in time tomorrow, i.e. Tuesday.

From the way the Nifty has approached these price and time targets, it does not seem that we could see a significant top here.

I notice from comments on my blog, that readers may assume that there could be a significant event on Tuesday. Whereas, in fact, a cycle in time is just a mathematical projection, from previous events. It may or may not have any significant impact. The only reason for my mentioning it is to allow readers to be alert.

In any case, the main trend is still hugely bullish, and it is not suggested to have a bearish outlook.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The gap through a potential short term target is extremely bullish. The market does not want bulls to enter at these levels either.

Applying further mathematics, we are getting a cluster of potential targets all bunched around the 4550 to 4602 range. We also see a rising trendline, which has been tested several times historically, which may provide a roadblock.

At times like these, it is foolish to jump on the market in desperation. The market always allows a suitable entry.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

What more can a person say that the Nifty is behaving perfectly, technically. A gap up open should hearten bulls, who are waiting for the ~4465 potential target for the Nifty.

The results season is now starting and as can be expected there would be intraday volatility.

The total traded volumes are also rising. In fact, we may see the potential target achieved within a few trading sessions. It is noticed that the market tends to pause at these types of potential targets. Further, the cycle in time falling on 17 July, which has been mentioned earlier too, also is fast approaching. It is now the time to be cautious.

Technically the position now changes … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 11 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty is still moving in a well defined channel. Today’s down move is very strange as it has been accompanied by more advancing than declining volumes. In terms of labelling, the short term trend is still up, and this may be a correction.

As we can see, the market is in the process of shaking out weak bulls, who cannot sustain sudden pressures of sharp falls. The short term trend is still up and will remain so till 4310 is held up.

The total traded volumes are also decent. We may see the market moving on its up trend from Friday.

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 09 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As we can see, trading can be boring for bulls. With no fresh triggers in the market, the trend continued on low volumes. It is at times like this, that the market is at its most vulnerable.

A sudden gush of high volumes and the market cracks. However, our job is not to predict tops, but to trade the market. And as is always prudent, keep raising our stops, so that we can lock in whatever profit we have earned.

With a few mathematical rules applied, we can see that the Nifty is giving us a short term potential target of 4455~4470. It is normally observed that the market tends to pause at these projected levels.

Questions were asked as to what exactly will happen on 17 July. Frankly, I wish I knew. If I did know, I could have made a killing on the market. It is quite possible that the 17 July may see a short term top or bottom. Who knows?

Technically the position still remains … as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.