Nifty for 26 April 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.
On Wednesday, I expected some mild weakness for the 11:00 am tick, and then a resumption of the uptrend. Thankfully, the market respected the analysis.

On 4 April (click here), on 5 April and again on 13 April, (click here), it was suggested that the market could possibly make a new high around 4170 on 26 April. These estimates were when the market was at the 3750 levels. So a buy and hold trader could have captured a possible 420 points on the Nifty, so far.

I feel grateful to the market for having fulfilled our estimates.

Then a question again is asked … what next? Frankly, I cannot answer that question now. However, I can just state what I expect. I think that Monday, 30 April will show us a short term bottom, and the uptrend is going to resume up once again.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty took support at the grey band, which was as suggested yesterday. It was also suggested that the Nifty might retest the grey band once again. However, it did not happen. Largely due to the announcement by banks about the continuing unchanged interest rates. The biggest gainer in the sector indices has been the banks today.

Unchanged interest rates bode well for industry. Also, from the movement of the Bank Index, it hints to some insider knowledge.

Thursday’s derivatives expiry is just two days away.

For tomorrow, I expect some mild weakness for the 11:00 am tick, and then a resumption of the uptrend. Mind it. I have been wrong several times earlier.

For the time being, it may be suggested that bulls among us now wait patiently on the sidelines. However, extreme short term traders could still utilise a sharp trading opportunity. The 4170 target level, which has been mentioned several times, is fast approaching.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

So far nothing seems to have changed. A huge gap opening was met with selling pressure, which is only normal. The gap was closed immediately, and the Nifty took support on a minor level. I expect that this minor support which is near today’s close, will be re-tested again. I also expect that the previous high, which is shown by the grey band will also be retested.

I had already warned readers about the Nifty approaching several clusters of cycles in time, which could contribute to volatility. As of the technical position now, I could still suggest readers to buy on this dip for a short term peak on 26 April. As the legend on the chart says it all … “could this current move terminate when time and price meet?”

Thursday’s derivatives expiry is nearing fast. Be careful.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We see the Index again retest yesterday’s high, this time successfully. And more importantly, it has moved up with a rising window. The implication is confirming the bullish nature of the market. It has also broken out of the grey resistance band, which we have been carrying for almost three months.

I had expected the short term trend to change to down, from Thursday, but the market proved me wrong. In any case, the longer term trends are still up, so I could suggest the bears to sit on the fence for the time being.

The next cycle in time falls on 26 April, which incidentally is also the Thursday coinciding with the derivatives expiry. So watch out.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Oh well … the market did as was expected. The world markets news flows made the Nifty open with a large downside gap, but it displayed enough strength to recoup all the losses of the gap. Today has been a minor cycle in time, and the market has shown enough resilience to claw back up. This confirms my belief that we are into a volatile stage of the market.

Further, it could be noticed on the chart how the price is moving, respecting all the various support and resistance levels, which we have been seeing for almost two months. I still have not been able to understand how the collective wisdom of millions of people influences the order in the market.

We see the Index again try and retest yesterday’s high, unsuccessfully. This suggests that our analysis of yesterday may stand the test of time. Yesterday could be a short term top. We could see a short term down trend leading to the derivatives expiry on 26 April.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am not posting the chart here. However, suffice to say, that today, the Nifty Future also hit a minor predefined level, which the Nifty Index hit yesterday.

This reinforces my belief that we are heading into a volatile stage of the market.

Further, it could be noticed on the chart how the price is moving, respecting all the various support and resistance levels, which we have been seeing for almost two months. I still have not been able to understand how the collective wisdom of millions of people influences the order in the market.

As suggested yesterday, today was a very interesting day in the scheme of things. The market did move above yesterday’s high but was not able to sustain. Today could be a short term top. We could see a short term down trend leading to the derivatives expiry on 26 April.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

We had an exact hit on a minor predefined level. The Nifty reacted downwards from there. Therefore, in all probability, we may see a small downside move. Why small? Because of the fact, that normally when the market tests a predefined level, it tends to retest it.

If the retest fails, then we can expect some more downside. However, the amplitude of the correction has not been very large, so we could see a continuation of the up move from mid day tomorrow, and the Index may attempt a retest of today’s high.

Tomorrow would be a very interesting day in the scheme of things.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

What can one say when the market opens with a rising window? The trend is bullish. Even though the intraday move was not very significant today, the market has moved through significant levels. This short term move may terminate at a short term level of around 4068/4070.

I repeat my earlier statements. The next cycles in time falls on 19, 26 and 29 April. So we may expect some volatility around that time. Keep utilising the dips to buy. Until we see a bearish pattern on the intraday charts.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been some time since I last posted. Some friends did ask me why I have not been posting regularly. It seems redundant to repeat the same thing over and over again. Use dips to buy.

A new short term top indicates that there is enough strength in the market to push it further up. There has been volatile sector rotation because of the news based reactions. Even so, we see earlier resistances being broken with regularity.

More significantly, today a long term supply line has been broken, which was lending psychological levels both for support as well as resistances. This bodes well for the bull market.

The next cycle in time falls on 26 and 29 April. So we may expect some volatility around that time. Keep utilising the dips to buy. Until we see a bearish pattern on the intraday charts.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I am happy that the market has respected the levels suggested on Tuesday, 3 April. The short term trend is still up, and now will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

The short term trend will be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February. At the same time, I would like to sound a word of caution. The 3620 low has been too low for comfort. And we do not see any strong support coming at these levels too. Therefore, in my estimation, the upswing we see may not be very high. In fact, it may be capped at around 4170, in this phase.

No doubt, the long term trend is still up, but these gyrations of the market will kill a small trader. Only an investor can stand a chance.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Apr 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Readers may find my statement ludicrous (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ludicrous) when I say that the short term trend is still up. When the market suffers a 5+% fall, it does not seem that the trend is still up. But the evidence is still suggesting it. We still have a higher top, higher bottom pattern on the charts. Later the index may turn out a consolidation pattern, which remains to be seen. This is our conclusion as on today. And the short term trend will remain up as long as the Nifty remains above 3619.

It takes a lot of guts to buy when the market is tanking 5% and we do not know what the outlook will be tomorrow. That is where planning the trade comes into focus. Traders could still wait for dips to buy, using our guidelines for a bullish setup. Keeping appropriate stops and hedging will be a prudent idea.

The trend will also be confirmed when we see a violation of 3902 high of 23 February.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With Friday’s close, we have reached a significant cycle in time, which we have been referring to in my earlier posts. It certainly will be interesting to see how the Nifty reacts at this time cycle.

My anticipation is that Friday or Monday could show us a short term bottom, and we may see the up trend resuming hereafter. This uptrend may well continue till the middle of April with small dips, or course.

News driven events do have a significant short term effect. However, it is my feeling that the rate hike was already anticipated and could have already been discounted by the market. That could explain the 1000 point fall in the Bank Nifty in the last month or so.

As these are speculative conclusions, we must keep this information at the back of our minds and follow the collective wisdom of the market. And the collective market seems to be reflecting the trend to be up.

Plan and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

With the intervening holiday, it was quite natural that we see a gap down opening. It was not too alarming. And the whole day passed almost uneventfully. Except for the mild excitement towards the end.

It is expected to see the short term weakness continuing on Thursday. Of course, with derivatives expiry tomorrow, we could see a lot of excitement towards the end.

Volumes continue to be high on dips. Therefore, we could assume that the trend is going to resume upwards in a couple of days. Quite possibly, we may see another fifty odd points more towards the downside.

These dips could be used to buy.

Trade happy.

Ram Navami

Nifty for 26 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the market open to manipulation? The answer is an unequivocal … yes!!! We see a large lower shadow on the Nifty, which could possibly be due to a “freak” trade on one of the Index component stocks. In all probability it could be Bharti Airtel. Just goes to show, what can be done to the market, and how technicals need to be analysed with a pinch of reality.

Friday 23 was a small spinning top candle, which is a precursor of a correction. Today we have seen one such day. In all probability we could see short term weakness continuing till Wednesday or Thursday. After that, we may see the uptrend resuming.

We see on the active futures, that volumes are increasing on dips which are supporting the market up. Therefore, we could assume that the trend is going to resume upwards in a couple of days.

These dips could be used to buy.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market is behaving perfectly, giving respect to supports and resistances.

The short term, intermediate term and the long term trend is up. Dips may be utilised to buy. And it does seem that the market may oblige bulls who are still waiting on the sidelines.

On the daily chart, we see a shooting star candle, which normally precedes a correction. On the other hand, we may have seen a minor winding down of short term positions, due to the weekend.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 22 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

21 and 22 March have arrived. Now it would be interesting to see what the market does tomorrow. If the bulls are lucky, then it could give a buying opportunity. If the bears are unlucky, then it could push some more stops. All said, we may see some continued volatility till 31 March.

I received a query whether we should buy or not, as we have had a huge gap open. For that I have only one remark. Please think of the market like a bed of quicksand. Solid on the surface, loose underneath. If you struggle in it, it will pull you deeper within. Therefore, it is not advisable to buy when the market tells you, but rather when you want to buy.

As of now, the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is also looking up and the long term trend is up. The probabilities confirm that the trend is now up. As such, dips may be utilised to buy. It would be foolish to think that the market is going to run away from us in one huge move. Please apply patience.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 21 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

From the way the Indices have behaved today, it seems that our analysis could stand the test of time. We may see a short term top today or tomorrow, and then we may see some continued volatility till our next time cycle target of 31 March.

Since the short term trend is up, the intermediate trend is undetermined and the long term trend is up, we will see these violent reactions, till the froth settles down. And the probabilities all point to the fact, that the intermediate term trend also could point upwards.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Mar 07

For some inexplicable reason, I could not log in to blogspot. Anyway, for whatever it is worth, here is my analysis for yesterday.

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

This was mentioned in my analysis of yesterday. “…. very early days to say. On the other hand, we may see a fall from tomorrow and then a halt on 21, and then a continuation of the uptrend till 31 March.

From what the market has done today, it suggests that this probability is coming into play. We could see some weakness tomorrow. And this could be a bouncing pad. Please remember, this is all a game of probability, and I am just suggesting the most probable event.

In case the market is kind enough and behaves as I think it would, we can make some money. In case it does not, then I would suggest either hedged derivative positions or strict stops.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Mar 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As per my analysis of 12 March 07, http://dusant.blogspot.com/2007/03/nifty-for-12-mar-07.html, we had anticipated that Friday 16 would be an important bottom. And the market seems to be confirming it. Therefore, in all probability, we could also see a short term top on 21 March.

If we see a sharp retracement downwards till 31 March from 21 onwards, then it is a negative sign, as the market would be taking more time to the downside, than the upside. However, these are very early days to say.

On the other hand, we may see a fall from tomorrow and then a halt on 21, and then a continuation of the uptrend till 31 March.

Do not forget the 29 March derivatives expiration, which could also contribute greatly to volatility. Whatever it is, we should now see a trend emerging at least till the first week of April.

Trade happy