Nifty for 08 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I hate to say, I told you so.

Readers are requested to just go back and read my analysis for Friday. It was repeated again and again during the whole of last week, to remain cautious with trailing stops, and I assume that those musings of mine would have been heeded.

All I can repeat at this stage is my “feeling” about the market. “I can confidently say that this short term top which could occur or already has occurred around ~5250 is not the ultimate peak.” Again, I repeat … this is my feeling … and not trading advice.

The final opportunity for bulls may just be around the corner. This may be around the 24th of this month. The suggestion to buy on dips remains, what we need to ascertain is that the Index makes a bullish pattern. The chart of the bullish pattern is there in my posting archives. Check for the link on the right side. However, I am showing the chart again for convenience.

With such a large bearish day, it is inevitable that there would be some short covering, which could allow the Index to move up. This situation normally tempts bulls to buy again. However, it is not suggested to jump in right away.

Most important, please be prepared for some huge intraday volatility with gap open moves.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 05 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a weak day. But so far, the Nifty is still displaying a consolidation pattern, without any signs of breaking down. However, we still see signs of profit booking in lower rung stocks, with the index heavyweights propping it up. Therefore, it is suggested to trade with caution in the second and third rung stocks.

The target of around 5400 is still open, and quite possible, we may not see it achieved in a hurry.

The market seems to be throwing all the “rules” out of the window as of now. All I can deduce from a longer term perspective, that there is a HUGE amount of steam left in the Indian stock market. I detest making predictions, but I can confidently say that this short term top which could occur or already has occurred around ~5250 is not the ultimate peak.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 04 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

At last the Nifty has broken its track record of making new highs everyday. As of the last two trading sessions, it seems to be a short term consolidation pattern.

I can only repeat what I mentioned yesterday. “The chart shows our next expected frontier. Will it or won’t it? No point speculating on this question. That will not earn us money.”

Today was a negative day on the Nifty, but not very significant. However, the only really negative thing which I observe is that the Nifty Futures are priced higher than the Nifty spot.

As we know, there should be a cost of carry for the Future, as the market is financing you to buy a virtual position. This should keep the Future priced higher. We have noticed that, usually, at market bottoms, the sentiment is depressed and the difference between the Cash and the Futures is high, with the Futures being lower priced. The reverse is true at market tops.

At present the difference is not much. However, this would lead to a perfect arbitrage situation, where the larger players could buy the Nifty Components and sell the Future to earn a risk free profit.

We also see a few cycles in time falling between 8 and 11 October. It seems that the attitude now should be of caution.

Plan your trade and trade happy. Suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 03 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

How boring … another new top. Today, the Nifty moved out of two short term projections with a gap. There was expected profit booking, and a convincing recovery too.

The chart shows our next expected frontier. Will it or won’t it? No point speculating on this question. That will not earn us money. A simple strategy of keeping trailing stops has earned us another ~150 points on the Nifty.

It was suggested on Monday that the Nifty has bounced twice from our earlier blue line/green zone, which was another short term projection. It was stated that this makes the green zone a significant one. Oh well, the Nifty did respect that level, and the result is there for us to see.

Plan your trade and trade happy. It is again suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 01 Oct 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Do spend a moment remembering the twentieth century icon of non-violence.

How boring … another new top. The Nifty has almost kissed our projected black line.

It is also noticed that the Nifty has bounced twice from our earlier blue line/green zone, which was another short term projection. This makes the green zone a significant one. Keep a sharp eye out for it in later days.

Apart from that, there is not much change from yesterday. The short term trend is still up. Our strategy of raising our profit booking stops has just given us an additional half percent on the Nifty.

Plan your trade and trade happy. It is again suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 28 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There is not much change from yesterday. The target zone is still open. The minute short term trend is still up. Our strategy of raising our profit booking stops has just given us an additional few points on the Nifty.

There was a question about the long term trend of the mother of all worldwide indices – the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This monthly chart was prepared sometime about three years back, and none of the studies have been changed. The time and price nexus is still standing the test of history, and we can expect it to do so in future too.

Most traders get so caught up watching the intraday charts, that they forget there is also a longer term aspect to trading.

I have oft repeated that a miniscule minority of traders can catch the top range and the bottom range. Otherwise, the exercise of trying to predict is a luxury most traders cannot afford and should not indulge in.

Even now, the Dow is not showing a final peaked out pattern as yet. And as we all know, all is not well with the USA economy.

Similarly, we do not see a peaking pattern on the Indian indices as well. So where is the need to panic?

What more can I add except, plan your trade and trade happy. It is suggested to keep the trailing stops intact, and enjoy the ride.

Nifty for 27 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the simple strategy of keeping a trailing stop keeps us in the market, rather than to exit prematurely. It has given us more than one percent today.

As far as expiration days are concerned, today must be the tamest expiry day in a long time. No fireworks, no flashes, just a continuation of the steady uptrend. The first short term target of 5000 has been achieved today.

The target range between 5000~5100 is still open. It does seem that the historic supply line is now giving support.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage. There will be plenty of time to short later, when the market gives us a convincing signal.

Once more, I reiterate my slogan, plan your trade and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

A simple strategy of keeping a trailing stop has given us an additional few points on the Nifty. For a market like this, it is again suggested not to try and catch the tops or bottoms but to keep raising stops as per our comfort levels, and allow the market to exit us, rather than to exit prematurely.

The target range between 5000~5100 is still open. It also seems that the historic supply line may now give support.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage.

Once more, I reiterate my slogan, plan your trade and trade happy. It is all in the mind.

Nifty for 25 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today's analysis is simple. It may be suggested to exit long positions on a close below 4875. This way, we do not exit prematurely, and yet are in the market, to take advantage of any possible up move.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next target also seems upon us. It is placed at around 5000. However, it does seem that even this target would be swept aside. As is normally the norm of the market, the targets are exceeded by a bit, so we may see a short term top around 5100.

This calculation is in keeping with the market movements for the last few days.

Was I wrong about the cycle in time? No. As has been often repeated, a cycle in time is just that, a projection of time. A window of a day or two may be granted, as emotions in the stock market cannot be dictated by mathematics.

At this stage, any other suggestion seems redundant; expect to keep tight stops to exit profitable positions.

Shorts? It is again very humbly suggested to avoid them at this stage.

Nifty for 21 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The chart says it all.

The cycle in time is now upon us. Monday could possibly be a short term high. The stress is on the word possibly. Could it be a major top? The odds are not in that favour. It does seem that we may have another major move up. But possibly after a correction.

As was suggested on Thursday, at this stage people would be tempted to short. To those people, all I can suggest that trying to catch tops or bottoms is a luxury which disciplined traders had better avoid. The business of trading does not earn money by “predicting” tops or bottoms. But to decide what the trend is and to take a slice of the action, by trading in the direction of the trend.

Please stay alert for a short term bearish pattern, as shown on my Blog. The link is on the right panel.

Nifty for 20 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

After a breakout is sustained, for a day, it seems logical to draw up the next mathematical target. This time it falls around 4860. Our anticipated high closing for the derivatives expiry this month has come true.

With many short term cycles coming into play, the next two trading sessions, Friday and Monday, would be important. Monday could possibly be a short term high.

At this stage people would be tempted to short. To those people, all I can suggest that trying to catch tops or bottoms is a luxury which disciplined traders had better avoid. The business of trading does not earn money by “predicting” tops or bottoms. But to decide what the trend is and to take a slice of the action, by trading in the direction of the trend.

I think that I should stop carrying my traders’ anthem, “Plan your trade, and trade happy”. People have read it so many times that they have become immune to it.

Nifty for 19 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Phew!!! Finally the market has obliged this humble analyst.

With a gap up opening through a short term target, no further analysis is necessary, except reiterating that the market is indeed bullish.

Just yesterday, it was suggested that … “In fact, we just seem to be entering the bubble stage, where the corner pan walla also becomes a stock market analyst.” Today seems the beginning of the bubble stage.

It was suggested two weeks back that we may encounter a cycle in time on 24 September. This could possibly be a short term high.

No other words seem necessary except that these humble musings may have helped some readers to make some money. Except a major word of caution. Please do not get carried away by the tidal wave. Please keep your feet firmly implanted on the ground, plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 18 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market has proved this humble analyst wrong again. It was anticipated that the 4450 level could be broken on the downside. The market has proved otherwise.

The short term trend is still up. In fact, the short term trend has reiterated its bullish behaviour today, by making a short term pivot.

There was some comment asking when we can short the market. At the risk of sounding offensive, I could suggest that the questioner must be daft, thinking of shorting the market when the trend is up. It has been suggested time and again that we could ride the trend rather than try and swim against the current. In my last 219 posts, spread over almost fifteen months, I do not remember having said at any time that the main trend is down.

In fact, we just seem to be entering the bubble stage, where the corner pan walla also becomes a stock market analyst. The market is not going to move one way. It is going to have its bad days and good days. It may be suggested to buy on dips.

Trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Here is what was suggested on Friday. “The probable direction is still bullish, and we may see some small downside.”

So far, the short term trend is still up. We could classify the short term trend to remain up till the yellow band of ~4450 is held up. As of now, it does seem that the 4450 level could be broken on the downside. However, it also seems that the correction may not be very deep.

The much talked about USA interest rate cut on Tuesday, seems to be spooking the market just a tiny bit. However, since the news based event is a non event on the face of it, we could just see that market brushing it aside as a non event.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.” The market has indeed showed that it is supreme, and trapped the stops of bears, who were hoping that this would be the final frontier.

It is getting very dicey for a trader here. A huge gap up opening does not allow a positive close? It is something to ponder about. What it tells us that the market is still unsure of the direction. The probable direction is still bullish, and we may see some small downside.

In such an event, it can again be suggested that any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital. A short term stop could be a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that “With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.”

It is also true that the next move could be really fast and furious. As of now, the possibility of the future direction is changing to up.

For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is violated on the upside, and if the low of 4452 is not broken on the downside, then we can expect the short term trend to change to up. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting.

The projected downside target of around 4300 now looks like a low possibility. In any case, any dips may be used to buy in. We must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 12 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As we can see, for the last few trading sessions, the Nifty has moved in a tightly coiled range of about 100 points. When a trading range of 100 points in one day is normal, the market is telling us something. It is suggesting that it does not want to move fast now, but later, when it moves, the directional move could be explosive.

With the index refusing to move down, it is quite probable that we may even not see a deep enough correction.

The short term trend is still down. As far as deciding about the short term trend is concerned, our levels of yesterday still stand. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, and if the low of 4452 is broken on the downside, then we can expect the trend to continue down. If none of these levels are broken, then the trend would remain sideways. As of now, the Nifty still seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

The projected downside target of around 4300 still stands. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 11 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term trend is down. For tomorrow, if the high of 4539 is not violated, then we can expect the trend to continue down. As of now, the Nifty seems to be consolidating rather than correcting. It could gather more downside momentum within a few days.

With some simple maths, we project a downside target of around 4300. These dips may be used to buy in. Of course, without saying, we must keep our stops to avoid disastrous loss of capital.

A sharp eye may also be kept on the coloured zones which are historical support levels. As of now, the market is just making nervous traders even more jittery. With gap up and down opens, it does not allow a normal trader to settle down comfortably.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today’s down move may be attributed to the hype associated with the 9/11 landmark in history. As was expected, the trend was weak for the end of day analysis. However, due to the gap down, we saw a fantastic recovery for the day. The Nifty has reached a historic supply line again. It could be expected to receive resistance around those levels.

Going ahead, we could expect some more weak bulls to be shaken out in a correction lasting just a few days. Today, the longer term perspective may be viewed. The next objective lies between 4680~4690. In that case, the Index may well make a new historic high later. How much time it takes is anybody’s guess. However, I could hazard a guess for it to be around the expiration of this derivatives cycle.

It may be suggested to just start accumulating around the 4350~4400 level. We need to choose the sectors carefully as we see the IT sector being weaker, but the Banking sector stronger than normal.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term objective of the Nifty has indeed been achieved today. As per our time and price projection, it is just two days late.

It does seem that the mild weakness witnessed during the intraday session on Friday could continue for a few days next week.

The opportunity that bulls were waiting for seems to be coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The market just refuses to give up of its gains. With today’s up day, the probability of the Nifty achieving its short term target of around 4533 seems even higher. It does seem that the market is correcting intraday. And not allowing traders to enter at lower levels. At a stage like this, we could only maintain caution, and not jump on the band wagon.

The bearish tri-star like candle pattern of yesterday has not been confirmed today.

It still feels that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. If however, we do lose our patience and do buy at this stage, then it is suggested to keep a stop for a close below 4440.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 05 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Intraday volatility continues. On a daily basis, we do see a mild crack downwards. Will it continue? The probability is higher that we may go into a downside correction.

Today, both on the BSE and the NSE we have had uncertain candles three days in a row. The candle pattern is quite like a bearish tri-star, which suggests that we may have encountered a short term top today.

As of now, it does seem that the opportunity for bulls is coming. With some patience, we could start accumulating from a few days hence. The next cycle in time falls on 24 September. This falls on the derivatives expiry week. From the time gap, it is quite possible that we may see a short term bottom sometime in early or the middle of next week, and a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 04 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

There seems to be barely any change from yesterday’s analysis. Today was a mildly down day, with intraday volatility.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today, both on the BSE and the NSE uncertain candles have registered again. As mentioned yesterday, we see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which is a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. The cycle in time mentioned earlier of 5 September is upon us.

The market could give bulls another opportunity to buy in the next few days. Readers could be prepared for it.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Sep 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As can be seen, the Nifty is still knocking at the historical supply line. There has been mild penetration of that line but still the Nifty is holding. Today’s candles, both on the BSE and the NSE are uncertain candles. We see some resistance levels around the 4520~4535 levels, which incidentally is also a short term price projection.

Therefore, we possibly could see a gap up open tomorrow, and may see the Nifty achieve that target. Earlier I had mentioned another cycle in time falling on 5 September.

Readers would now be itching to enter the bull run, afraid that it will run out of hand and they may not have an opportunity to buy at a later date. The market is imploring traders to buy at this time. And as we all know, we should buy when we want, and not when the market wants us to.

The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The weekend trading has shaken out some more bears. As can be seen, the Nifty has encountered a historical supply line. There could be mild penetration of that line and then we could witness a correction. Our cycle in time date of 30 August could still have its effect on the market.

As regular readers must know by this time, I dislike giving direction based calls. That places the trader in a mood of complacency. Instead it is always better to plan the trade and then execute it. At this point, the short term up move seems a little stretched. That should allow some profit booking to come in. The main trend is still up, and trades could be placed in the direction of the main trend. The proper course could be to wait for dips to buy. Stops may be placed at the 4220~4230 region where you see the grey support band.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 29 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, the market did open hugely weak on Global cues. However, the market proved me wrong by taking a one way traffic lane upward, and taking out yesterday’s high. In such a case, the cycle in time on 30, i.e. tomorrow could turn out to be an intermediate high. Considering that tomorrow is an expiry for the derivatives cycle.

In that case, we could have a short term bottom on 5 September.

However, please keep in mind that these dates are purely time projections. And time projections do not make profits. The price does. Therefore, please keep in mind the price, and look ahead to what really happens on the time cycle projection dates.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 28 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It has been a long time. I am really gratified that the market respected our cycle in time of around 17~18 August, which was mentioned in my last post on 14 August. According to my cycle calculations, we have another event on 30 August. A kind friend informed me that the Dow is down 135 points, as of this moment when I am writing. In such a case, we could see some downside due to adverse sentiment. If we see a downside, then we could see an intermediate bottom on 30 August.

And, the next time cycle falls on 5 September. This could again show us a short term turning point. In any case, the pattern of higher tops and bottoms augers well for the bull. This may therefore be classified as a buy on dips situation.

The short term target derived from Fibonacci extensions is 16278 on the BSE and 4724 on the NSE. If such a target is achieved, then it is obvious that the market may make a new high.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 14 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Today was a neutral day. The blue dotted supply line is still exerting its influence.

With some time based calculations, we are getting a cycle in time date around 17~18 August 07. It will be interesting to note what the Index does around that time frame. From the movement of today, it could possibly be weak for a couple of days, and then make a bottom for this correction around 17~18.

The possible zone where the Nifty could take support is around 4145~4178.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now look at about the 4145 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy and enjoy the Independence day holiday.

Nifty for 13 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested on Friday that the correction is still not over. From the pattern today, it does seem correct. The up move of the last two trading sessions does suggest that these 100 odd points are a correction.

Today’s move was fuelled by one pharma and the auto pack. But Tata Power was the major driver because of the news related to power. Had the technology pack participated, I would be comfortable in saying that this move is broad based.

This reinforces my above mentioned understanding of today’s up move. Since the major move is still up, it could be suggested for short term traders to possibly buy on dips with a strict stop. However, please keep in mind that the short term trend is still down, so buying could be done on deep down moves.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could remain cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 10 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested just yesterday that we have a short term target of 4238. Little did I realise that the market would tank straight through and achieve it within seconds of the opening bell.

A quick glance at the chart shows it like a battle field full of bombed crater holes. Everyday has been a gap open up or down. This type of volatility is dangerous to the health of small traders or investors. In such a situation, it is always advisable to stay away, rather than risk capital.

For the next few trading sessions the Nifty must avoid the grey band between 4210 and 4240. This may allow some recovery. This recovery could lull the senses of bull traders and draw them back into the market. That could turn out to be a mistake. Because I believe that this correction is still not over. The scenario which I foresee is a recovery back into the blue or yellow band. And then, a final shake out.

How deep this shakeout would be is anybody’s guess.

I have been wrong several times earlier, and I could be wrong once again. This brings us back to the importance of planning the trade.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 09 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The pattern on the chart suggests as of now, that the up move in the beginning of this week could be a reaction to the fall of the last two weeks. And as it seems inevitable that there should be a down move which would allow the pattern to complete.

As I have been mentioning for the past few days, the market moves up laboriously and tanks effortlessly. This suggests that the market is in a down move. Further, we notice that the market opens with a downside or upside gap, thus not allowing comfortable trading in the direction of the trend. Today, the market has moved in a huge trading range, missed the grey band and moved back into the yellow band.

From the way the market is behaving, it does seem that the pink zone will not provide enough support. According to the projection of this down move, we get a target of 4238.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Investors could now be cautious about the 4235 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 07 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

It was suggested yesterday that we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, the gap up open was promptly met with selling at higher levels, which resulted in the Nifty moving down, very steadily during the day.

So far the Nifty has not shown any remarkable strength, even though we did see a gap up open. It could be a knee jerk reaction due to global cues, followed by profit booking at the rise. This suggests that the market is still not convinced about its new found strength, and this up move could purely be because the Nifty had lost around 60% of its last up move.

The short term trend could possibly change up. This suggestion would hold valid only if the Nifty moves above the yellow band. The level indicated would be 4430. It should also not violate 4270 on the downside. Therefore, we have a 160 points zone of uncertainty.

Short term traders may possibly buy on dips with a strict stop.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, investors could now be cautious about the 4270 level. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are really long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 06 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

When the market constantly breaks downside targets, we re-evaluate the position. With revised calculations, we arrive at a short term target of 4234. The target of 4234 falls just within the grey band which I have been carrying for the past two months. Readers must have got tired of hearing this everyday, but the fact is that the bottom for today is another very significant bottom. If this bottom is broken, and if the grey band below it is violated, on a closing basis, then things could really get ugly for the investor.

The probabilities were higher for the Index to move back up, but even that has failed.

It is a reflection on the current weakness of the market that it took the index almost six weeks for the market to move up from the 4100 to 4650 regions. It has given up almost 60% of its gains in just two weeks.

Normally, we witness buying interest when the price gives up around 62% of gains. So we may again witness bouts of buying from tomorrow. However, we would need to evaluate how strong the buying is to really decide whether the short term trend has indeed changed from down to up.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Profit taking also may be done quickly, unless we are long term investors.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 03 Aug 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The Nifty did hit a rising line as was hoped for by bulls. So far support does seem to have come in.

It remains to be seen whether or not, this support will hold. The probability of it holding now seems high. I would use the high of 4429 as a benchmark to decide whether or not, the Nifty has enough strength to breakout upwards. Volumes are tepid at best, and the decider would be more buying interest in the shape of rising volumes. Trading does become difficult when the Index opens with an upside or downside gap, and can just rush through stop levels. This is one hazard which a trader needs to accept while trading. An investor may take things a little easier.

In such a scenario, a trader can hedge his positions by using options, which is a protective strategy.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Now, the last bottom of 4327 becomes significant, so stops may be placed at 4325.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 02 Aug 07

I have been pretty tied up the last days. But for whatever it is worth, here are the charts for the 1st and 2nd August.

Trade happy.

Nifty for 31 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The next two days could be the moment of truth. These 100 points on the Nifty could decide the ultimate fate of the Nifty for the short term. So far we have had a classic buying setup, where there was a sharp news related dip, two higher bottoms, and subsequently, a higher top.

Normally, when the market brushes aside substantial news, it suggests strength. It also suggests that the market does not want prices to go lower, as it would mean putting in a lot of effort to rise again.

I am stating this due to a very simple fact. The market buys today, in the hope of selling later at higher prices. To buy, it needs a lot of money, and hence, a lot of effort. Selling is easy. We do not need any money to sell. That is the reason why we see that the market moves up slowly, but moves down very quickly.

So far, there is no evidence to suggest that the market has sold whatever it has bought earlier. That is the reason which leads me to believe that last week was not a major top. But it does not matter what I believe or don’t. What matters is that we keep our trading plan in place, and trade according to the plan.

We now have had a scenario of higher tops and subsequent dips, which have made higher bottoms. This suggests that we may see even higher price levels.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of many days … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. Of course, the last bottom of 4403 is significant, so stops may be placed at 4400.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 30 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that “we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.” The low for the Nifty was 4403. After that, it has indeed made a higher short term top. It was not a very convincing move. This makes the short term bottom of 4403 significant.

We have had a scenario of a higher top and a subsequent dip. High risk individuals could use this dip to buy. They could place their stops at 4400, for safety.

The Nifty has also rested on a short term support line, which adds to the importance of the bottom of 4403.

As far as the longer term perspective is concerned, I can only repeat my suggestion of yesterday … technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on my blog, http://dusant.blogspot.com/.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 27 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

I shudder to think of the effects this huge gap down fall would have on the accounts of highly leveraged traders.

After today’s price action, it becomes really difficult to take a directional call on the market. In fact, as mentioned yesterday, i.e. Thursday, “We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.” It is practically impossible to foresee a 200 odd point fall in a single day.

On Thursday, the market sidelined the bears. And today it has practically sidelined the bulls. It was mentioned yesterday, “As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.” However, today was not profit booking, but a panicked knee jerk reaction to the global cues.

My stop has been triggered, and would prefer to stay out for the moment. As I have stated earlier, the long term trend seems to still be up, and it is not suggested to have bearish thoughts.

With the fresh inputs available after Friday, it is normally observed that if a potential target is achieved in one day, we could look at lower levels. Considering the various levels between the low of 12 June 07, and the high of 24 July 07, we arrive at a cluster of targets between 4374 and 4388.

From a longer term perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, patience is now suggested, and we could allow this “bad blood” to flow out completely. Let this fall play itself out completely, and then we may suggest buying afresh. Please keep in mind the bullish setup which is posted on the links on the right side of this page.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 26 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

As was suggested yesterday, we did see a gap open and intraday fireworks, with a huge amount of bears stops being triggered in the last hour.

The job of the market was to sideline the bears temporarily, which it has done. As a result, we may see some profit booking in the next few days.

Here is one classic example of how an intraday trader would really suffer from heart jitters, but if we step back and see the larger perspective, nothing really has changed. I would now raise my stop to a close below 4554.

From a larger perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. We may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 25 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Is the much awaited correction coming? Well, I do not have a crystal ball to gaze into the future. But here is what I could do.

I could maintain my stop for long positions at a close below 4547. Tomorrow being the expiry of the derivatives cycle, we could see some dramatics, with a large opening gap and last minute stops being run. In fact, if we do see weakness, we quite possibly may have the short term trend turning down.

When the long term trend is up, and the short term trend turns down, it presents a possibly ideal opportunity to buy. Timing the buy becomes important in this scenario. I suspect that we may have a short term bearish setup, as explained on my blog. Here is the link once again. Right Click here and open in new window

From a larger perspective, technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips. However, we may possibly see some correction for about 200 odd points.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 24 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Small steps. Large Steps. It all depends on how you look at it. The last month has shown the Nifty taking small steps right from the 4300 levels, towards its ultimate destination. Where is the correction? … people ask? The hourly chart shows lots of corrections, even though the daily chart would be one smooth ride.

Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 23 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The short term weakness of Friday was brushed aside. The “hoped for” weakness did not materialise. It does seem that the market does not want new bulls to enter at lower levels.

The Nifty has broken out from yet another price projection level, like a hurdler on steroids.

The totally traded volumes are not too strong on both the bourses. It reflects the lack of conviction of the market of this rise. Further, it is noticed that during the last fortnight or so, there has been profit booking in quite a lot of stocks. It may be assumed that there has been interest mainly in the Index stocks. Further it could also be attributed to pre-earning season jitters.

All said, we could see a surge back into the lower rung stocks at a later date.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 20 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Two things could have contributed to the weakness on Friday. One is the weekend factor. The second is that there seemed an extra dose of exuberance at the opening. This bullish enthusiasm made the Index open with an upside gap. However, the gap was closed with a couple of hours.

It is has also tested the supply line, which was mentioned on Thursday. It was also mentioned ... "So very simply, bulls should remain alert. With the weekend around the corner, there again would be some volatility." On an intraday perspective we may have a 50 odd point downside. This could be used to buy in.

Technically the position remains as a suggestion to buy on dips.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 19 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Well, at last the Nifty has hit a bang on target.

It is also approaching a long tested supply line. So very simply, bulls should remain alert. With the weekend around the corner, there again would be some volatility. This is the time when our slogan, to plan trades, will work.

As was suggested on Tuesday, “it still does not seem that we could see a significant top here.”

Technically the position now changes to buy on dips. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions. Till then, only patience may be suggested.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 17 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Has the Nifty missed its target by a whisker? As of the end of today, it does look like it.

As suggested earlier, we did see a roadblock around the 4550 to 4602 range. Also we have encountered a cycle in time. What the effect it would have still remains to be seen. The time cycle has shown its effect, with a 50 point correction.

It still does not seem that we could see a significant top here. The main trend is still hugely bullish, and it is not suggested to have a bearish outlook.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions. The technical status to buy on dips may arise in a few days. Till then, only patience may be suggested.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 16 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

Monday has been a more normal bullish day when compared to Friday.

As mentioned on my analysis for Friday, we could see a roadblock around the 4550 to 4602 range. Also we are falling on a cycle in time tomorrow, i.e. Tuesday.

From the way the Nifty has approached these price and time targets, it does not seem that we could see a significant top here.

I notice from comments on my blog, that readers may assume that there could be a significant event on Tuesday. Whereas, in fact, a cycle in time is just a mathematical projection, from previous events. It may or may not have any significant impact. The only reason for my mentioning it is to allow readers to be alert.

In any case, the main trend is still hugely bullish, and it is not suggested to have a bearish outlook.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions.

Plan your trades and trade happy.

Nifty for 13 Jul 07

These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise. To view the full chart, right click and open in a new window.

The gap through a potential short term target is extremely bullish. The market does not want bulls to enter at these levels either.

Applying further mathematics, we are getting a cluster of potential targets all bunched around the 4550 to 4602 range. We also see a rising trendline, which has been tested several times historically, which may provide a roadblock.

At times like these, it is foolish to jump on the market in desperation. The market always allows a suitable entry.

Technically the position now remains … the suggestion to buy on dips would remain valid only for very short term traders. Others may tighten stops and allow the market to exit us from the winning positions.

Plan your trades and trade happy.